Will CNN make a prediction on the winner of the Ohio Democratic Primary by 10PM (EST) on March 4th?

Since no timezone was given the default timezone (PST) will be the timezone I settle via. Unless historyteacher has a problem with that?

Ryan
Hubdub U.S. Politics Content Editor

No problem with that, I thought I set it to suspend before the polls closed, if not that was my intent.

Just to be clear, we are saying that by 10pm PST? That is 5 1/2 hours after polls close.

What timezone do you want it ending at?

Ryan
Hubdub U.S. Politics Content Editor

Eastern...since that is Ohio's timezone. i thnk that will make it more interesting a bet...cause 5 and a half hours is a long time

Why would you set the time zone to PST if no time zone was specified? I thought the rules stated that the local time zone would be used for locale-specific questions. Had any bets been placed before that time was set? If so, what was the point in even writing the rules?
Besides, that's quite a long time after the polls close. I know you cleared it with the author of the question, but that was that the intention when the starting odds were chosen? A three-hour difference is a long time in a question like this one.

Ok I probably confused things with my response above. I thought Ryan was talking about the time zone for suspending it in the settlement details which by default sets to PST. Regarding the question I thought that under the rules we assumed a local specific question was based on the time zone of the locality, so yes Eastern time zone because that is Ohio's time zone. My point with the question was that in 2004 it wasn't clear until the day after the election who won Ohio because of the mess in Cleveland and in 2006 they didn't finish counting votes for a week. Given past problems will they do a good enough job counting votes that CNN can make a call by 10 PM EST, which means 2 1/2 hrs after the polls close. So Ryan could you please add EST to the question? Apologies for any confusion.

Okay with all the back and forth, how about we void this question, give everyone thier money back and start over. Bets made and then terms change isn't fair.

Hey guys,

I've just edited this to be a 7 PST suspend for a 10 PM EST suspend. On questions of voiding this, we already have enough bets on this market that voiding is just going to make things worse. So I'll let it go on, because it is a really good question.

Cheers,

Ryan
Hubdub U.S. Politics Content Editor

HistoryTeacher wrote: "... I thought I set it to suspend before the polls closed ... "

FYI, you may wanna look at "Settlement Date Bug" (It should have been titled "Suspend Date/Time Bug")
<http://getsatisfaction.com/hubdub/topics/settlement_date_bug>

"Okay with all the back and forth, how about we void this question, give everyone thier money back and start over. Bets made and then terms change isn't fair."

agreed. ive flagged this one, requesting my h$ back.

So for clarity - This question will be settled as a YES if CNN projects a winner before 10pm PST? The suspend time doesn't matter, I am looking for what time will be used for settlement. All indicators are that PST is being use for settlment. Am I correct?

This question needs VOIDED and re-written so those who wagered on one set of circumstances that have now been changed can take thier money and re-invest in this question under the new rules if they choose too.

I am posting here because on the "Get satisfaction page" it keeps telling me my email in invalid. Funny I have had it for over a decade.

As the person that posted the question, let me respond. The time listed in the question as 10PM was assumed by me to be 10PM EST because the question specifically referred to Ohio and Ohio is in the EST zone. I may have confused things when I answered Ryan's question in the comments section and said PST was okay. I thought he was referring to the time I had set under settlement details as the suspend time and I thought the suspend time was always PST.

In the Guidlines it says regarding Time and Time Zones


"If the question is on a prediction that happens in a particular locale it will be assumed that it refers to local time, unless otherwise specified. E.g. ‘Will it rain in Manchester, UK on Feb 5th?’ would be resolved using local time (GMT). Best practise is for question creators to state the time zone in which the prediction occurs."

Based on this rule the question should have been viewed as meaning 10PM EST. If that was not clear, my apologies, because that was the intent. I believe I set it with the Yes odds at 30%. If the question had been PST, meaning 1AM in Ohio, than I would have set the odds at yes 90%. Personally I think Clinton will win Ohio by 6-10%. I think due to problems in Cuyahoga County CNN may delay a prediction until they at least count 10% of the vote there, because if Obama has any chance to win he must win big there. However I think they will make a call sometime between 10-11 PM EST. Hence that was why I set the odds as I did.

I will have no problem with whatever action is taken on this question and I have no issue with anyone who has raised complaints. Whatever Hubdub thinks is best is fine with me. I do however think it is an interesting question so if it is voided could the voiding authority repost it with crystal clear language.

Hi guys,

Seeing as the market already has many bets on it, I'm going to keep the market open. But if the result of this question occurs in the 3 hours time difference (i.e. 3pm EST to 3pm PST) then we will void it. Otherwise it will be settled according to what happens.

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub U.S. Politics Content Editor

So basically a wager on this is a sure win or draw. Wager as much as you want, and as long as race is called before 1 am EST which is 5 1/2 hours after polls close you can't lose your money. If it is called within 2 1/2 hours of polls closing you win, next 3 hours is a void. Seems like a good thing.

Seems amazing that there is NO bets on this. The only way to win the NO is for this to be settled after 1:00 am EST.

Major ice hitting Northeast Ohio, could cause some delays in counting votes. Clinton is going to win so big probably not enough to effect CNN predictions.

oops, I should've read the comments before betting "NO" because it sez in market title- by 10PM (EST)
if they don't announce a winner by 10:01 pm Ohio time, then "NO" wins,yes?

Ohio Board of Elections has just ordered that no results be released until 9PM as judges are considering extending the voting in 2 counties and possibly more. Flooding and ice storm has caused road closures and power outages. Also some polling places ran out of ballots due to heavy turnout.

now I see the suspend time, so destry is correct. still, this might get settled NO....

my oh my, I am not regretting now my "NO" vote. glad I didn't read into it. except... might get settled yes...

well the have projected a winner for the republican
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#OH
let's see if they will do the sane for the democratic party

VOID.... CNN projected at 11:01 pm. There fore causing this question to be voided. Since the event occured within the 3 hours between 10pm EST and 10pm PST.

Destry - only as FYI, I amended the settlement request I made ... (was confused by it all) but you're right.

I know the settlement request was amended however the wagers were placed under the assumption that this question would be settled as yes only if done by 10pm EST, would be voided if settled during the 10pm EST and 10pm PST (3 hour) time difference, and would be settled as no if after 10 pm PST. I asked for this question to be voided and a new one created a while ago. I would not have wagered the 50k I did on it, if it was 10pm EST as a settlement.

Piss poor decision to void this!