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Will Chicago suffer a terrorist attack in 2008?

Current forecast: 9% chance
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 9% likely to happen (unchanged in last 1 day)


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Yes
9%
No
91%
Activity: H$15,866
Question suspends in 4 weeks

Suspend date: Thu 1st Jan 2009 12:05am PST (4 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 30%

Action history:

Created Mon 3rd Mar 7:39pm PST by constantskeptic
Edited Tue 11th Mar 2:10am PDT by diana
Changed Question text Sat 11th Oct 3:41am PDT by ryanj[Admin]: show details
... Will Chicago suffer a terrorist atttackattack in 2008?

Suspend date: Thu 1st Jan 2009 12:05am PST (4 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (28)

28 predictions

1 week ago
paul444 predicted No (H$20 at 91%)
1 week ago
andrewpmk predicted No (H$20 at 91%)
3 weeks ago
brantestes predicted No (H$186 at 91%)
4 weeks ago
cognos[Power User] predicted No (H$4,444 at 82%)
9 weeks ago
gilliganp predicted No (H$120 at 77%)
more

Comments (2)

Was there ever an article, rumor, or something that prompted this question? Not that there needs to be one in order to create a question, but I haven't heard anything about terrorism in the Windy City lately.
posted 28 weeks ago
Will this question only count if there are fatalities from the attack? For example, what if there's an animal rights firebombing (as there's recently been near UCLA)?
posted 10 weeks ago

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