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Will China ban live broadcasts from Tiananmen Square during the 2008 Summer Olympics ?

Settled as No

Live broadcasts were allowed throughout the Olympics (although there were restrictions). Settled as no.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source. This question will suspend 1 week before the end of the Games, and settle at the end of the Games, unless there is a ban in place before then.

 
Forecast history, %
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Settled

Yes
11%
No
89%
Activity: H$60,072
Settled as No on Sun 24th Aug 2:21pm PDT

Suspend date: Mon 18th Aug 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Sun 24th Aug 2:21pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 18th Aug 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 60%

Action history:

Created Fri 21st Mar 8:26pm PDT by meanderingsearcher
Settlement requested Thu 10th Jul 11:34am PDT by meanderingsearcher: http://www.sharewatch.com/story.php?storynumber=631
Suspended Fri 11th Jul 6:22am PDT by newswrangler[Power User]: Flagged by super user:

Suspended pending decision by Category Editors to settle or not based on an announcement.
Unsuspended Fri 11th Jul 12:28pm PDT by lesley[Admin]: Although the news reports say that China has officially agreed to permit live broadcasts, this question will remain open until suspend date as there is potential that the Chinese will change their mind.
Suspended Wed 30th Jul 4:37pm PDT by newswrangler[Power User]: Suspended pending settlement
Settlement requested Wed 30th Jul 4:37pm PDT by newswrangler[Power User]: "Broadcasters are not allowed to do interviews in the square and are permitted to conduct only live stand-ups, which Beijing considers to be safe."

<http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24099768-7582,00.html>

Sounds like a ban to me .... (market suspended)
Unsuspended Thu 31st Jul 10:04am PDT by tisha[Admin]: There is not enough evidence to say that China have 'banned' live broadcasts. They have restricted hours, but there are conflicting reports as to whether live broadcasts are or are not 'allowed'. Market reopened until more conclusive evidence is found.
Settlement requested Sat 9th Aug 10:22pm PDT by dieseldog: if CBC has footage they musta been broadcasting from there. i'm guessing if anybody is watching the olympics they can tell if any live broadcasts have occured it. i don't know if this ws live or not.

http://sports.yahoo.com/olympics/news?slug=ap-protests&prov=ap&type=lgns

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2008/aug/09/small-pro-tibet-protest-held-in-tiananmen-squar-1/

http://www.cbc.ca/news/more.html <--- i think you have to be a member to view the video.
The activists clasped each others’ hands and walked around the square, chanting “Freedom for Tibet,” and “One World, One Dream, Free Tibet”—a play off a Beijing Olympics motto—before they were confronted, according to Canadian Broadcasting Corp. video footage.
Suspended Mon 18th Aug 12:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Settled as 'No' Sun 24th Aug 2:21pm PDT by infernalmachine[Admin]: Live broadcasts were allowed throughout the Olympics (although there were restrictions). Settled as no.

Suspend date: Mon 18th Aug 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Sun 24th Aug 2:21pm PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 18th Aug 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (145)

145 predictions

15 weeks ago
rcthd1118 predicted No (H$20 at 89%)
15 weeks ago
infernalmachine[Admin] predicted No (H$5,600 at 86%)
15 weeks ago
pippi1500 predicted No (H$50 at 78%)
15 weeks ago
carr0tman predicted No (H$50 at 80%)
15 weeks ago
jsevigny predicted No (H$100 at 78%)
more

Comments (21)

  1 arnos
What do you mean when you say "from"?
posted 36 weeks ago
usually the broadcster will state that they are broadcasting "from" somewhere
ie "live from my livingroom this is meanderingsearcher......"
posted 36 weeks ago
  3 randburg
We are all so pleased to know that our dear friend is broadcasting live from his livingroom (with duckie)...Consider the alternative: LIVE from Mao Tse Tung's tomb...Maybe Nigel will sponsor you as hubdub's man in Beijing...But you and duckie must promise not to blow out the torch...
posted 36 weeks ago
snickers at randburg
posted 36 weeks ago
  5 pics4d
will this be settled as of day 1 of the olympics or as of the last day...i.e. what if they allow them at first, but then ban them because of protests during?
posted 35 weeks ago
i figure there won't be any broadcasts from there
posted 35 weeks ago
  7 randburg
It's nice that we all have fun together.

Actually this is a fascinating question: compliments to meanderingsearcher.

The real question here might be: Will a diehard communist nation relax staunch authoritarian principles to attract western democratic countries and citizens -- as well as western democratic CURRENCY -- to The Olympics? Pride and "saving face" is EVERYTHING to the asian countries. China knows that -- for the Olympics to be successful -- they must APPEAR more western, while enforcing communist tenets in the background.

It's like the arcade game: hammering heads that pop up. Tibet is already popping up all over the place and various countries -- like France -- are already hinting at threats to the Olympics. Any relaxation of communist authority will set a precedent. Will they allow this kind of precedent? And if they allow a precedent of this nature -- i.e. Tiananmen Square -- will they later go back on this precedent? Will they maintain contol of the populace in the process?

meanderingsearcher's prediction is really an enormous question with astounding possibilities, and will be worth following LONG after this question has been settled...
posted 35 weeks ago
  8 shadowfax
Great reference to "whack a mole" randberg
this is a compelling question as well
posted 35 weeks ago
simple question, big impact
the notariety of Tiananmen Square puts china on the spot as randburg says
posted 35 weeks ago
  10 lesley[Admin]
This question has been unsuspended. Although the news reports say that China has officially agreed to permit live broadcasts, this question will remain open until suspend date as there is potential that the Chinese will change their mind.

Lesley
Hubdub Category Manager
posted 20 weeks ago
  11 arnos
What way will this be settled if china suddenly censors a live broadcast from Tiananmen Square?
posted 18 weeks ago
Yes, it does not seem clear. It does not specify them terminating a single broadcast, but what if they "Ban" broadcasts from there.
posted 17 weeks ago
China to Limit Web Access During Games

BEIJING — The Chinese government has confirmed what journalists arriving at the lavishly outfitted media center here have suspected: contrary to previous assurances by Olympic and government officials, the Internet will be censored during the upcoming Games.

<http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/31/sports/olympics/31china.html?hp>
posted 17 weeks ago
"Broadcasters are not allowed to do interviews in the square and are permitted to conduct only live stand-ups, which Beijing considers to be safe."

<http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24099768-7582,00.html>

Sounds like a ban to me ....
posted 17 weeks ago
  15 dieseldog
@newswrangler..ZDF German television asked that restrictive hours permitted for live broadcasts in Tiananmen Square be extended beyond 6am-10am and 9pm-11pm, especially on the night of the opening ceremony on August 8. Beijing refused.

sounds like a partial ban. there will be live broadcast, but limited. i have no money in this question. goodluck betters and admin.
posted 17 weeks ago
@ dieseldog -- Good point (as usual ;-) I expressed those very sentiments in a flag when I suspended this question ... as I wondered if this was a "ban", a "partial ban" -- and was it a change in position from the date this market was created. I also referenced this link in my flag <http://www.reuters.com/article/televisionNews/idUSPEK10686920080709>.
posted 17 weeks ago
  17 tisha[Admin]
There is not enough evidence to say that China have 'banned' live broadcasts. They have restricted hours, but there are conflicting reports as to whether live broadcasts are or are not 'allowed'. Market reopened until more conclusive evidence is found.
posted 17 weeks ago
  18 tisha[Admin]
ps - as an unofficial comment, from reading the articles, it seems pretty likely to me that there won't be an official 'ban' on live broadcasts, but rather a campaign of harrassment for networks that do try and broadcast live...
posted 17 weeks ago
The Beijing Olympics - Are They A Trap?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aqNaAU2vXlI
posted 17 weeks ago
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/08/11/AR2008081102280.html

Live broadcasts but restricted hours, no live interviews. Enough to not constitute a ban, but we'll wait for the weekend to settle, just in case something changes.
posted 15 weeks ago
  21 yongke_yu
Hahaha. All you haters can suck it, the game was a complete success.
posted 14 weeks ago

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