Home Hubdub logo
 
Guest account   Cash: hd$1,000   Predictions: hd$0
You currently have hd$1,000 (Hubdub dollars), Hubdub's play money, to stake on your predictions. Your predictions are currently worth hd$0
Home
Leaderboards
Forums
My Predictions

Will Clinton beat Obama in the March 4th Democratic Texas Primary?

Settled as Yes

http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/dates/index.html#20080304

Background:

Decided by delegate count. (Not superdelegates)


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Yes
21%
No
79%
Activity: H$152,073
Settled as Yes on Wed 5th Mar 7:06am PST

Suspend date: Tue 4th Mar 1am PST Settlement date: Wed 5th Mar 7:06am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 4th Mar 1am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 60%

Action history:

Created Thu 14th Feb 4:43am PST by jjmurray
Edited Sat 16th Feb 12:27pm PST by ryanj[Admin]
Suspended Tue 4th Mar 1am PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Tue 4th Mar 10:36pm PST by dan_the_omniscient: foxnews.com, et al calling it for hitlary.
Settled as 'Yes' Wed 5th Mar 7:06am PST by ryanj[Admin]: http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/dates/index.html#20080304

Suspend date: Tue 4th Mar 1am PST Settlement date: Wed 5th Mar 7:06am PSTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 4th Mar 1am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (503)

503 predictions

39 weeks ago
emily predicted No (H$20 at 74%)
39 weeks ago
dieseldog predicted Yes (H$50 at 26%)
39 weeks ago
jenniandboys[Admin] predicted Yes (H$20 at 26%)
39 weeks ago
brent predicted No (H$100 at 73%)
39 weeks ago
blueblib predicted No (H$50 at 74%)
more

Comments (12)

Popular vote, delegate vote, or delegate and superdelegate?
posted 41 weeks ago
  2 ryanj[Admin]
Edited to make clear that this is decided via a delegate vote, not superdelegates.

Ryan
Hubdub U.S. Politics Content Editor
posted 41 weeks ago
http://www.foxnews.com/images/root_images/Clinton_Secondwind.jpg

yikes. but ill take the h$.

never underestimate a clinton's ability to *hold office*!
posted 38 weeks ago
  4 spl0it
Why has this been settled already? the outcome by the news organizations is still a projection...and the caucus which is part of the primary has obama in the lead.... .... ... please explain?
posted 38 weeks ago
  5 ryanj[Admin]
Hi spl0it,

You are correct that the major media sources are still only "projecting" but they are doing this with 99% of precincts reporting, meaning there is no way for a turn around to occur. On the question of Primary and Caucus. This market asks about the primary not the caucus. All the major news sites like MSNBC and CNN have split the Texas vote into two separate votes, one being the Caucus and the other being the Primary. Hope this helps!

Ryan
Hubdub U.S. Politics Content Editor
posted 38 weeks ago
But precincts get delegates according to turnout from previous elections (i.e. unevenly) -- how can say who has the most delegates? With such a close popular vote, I think its hard to say how the delegate count will fall.
posted 38 weeks ago
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#TX

Clinton 65 delegates, Obama 61
posted 38 weeks ago
There is no way to settle this yet, the caucus results are still being tallied. The vote itself only assigns 2/3 of delegates for TX, and the caucus awards the other 1/3. In order to know who won the Primary the results of the caucus also needs to be determined. This settlement is premature, only taking into account 2/3 of the Primary at this juncture.
posted 38 weeks ago
thedoctor: A Primary is a cohesive process. Counting the vote but not the caucus means you're only paying attention to 2/3 of the Primary as a whole. This question states that for an affirmative result Clinton must win the TX Primary based on Delegate count. That has not happened.
posted 38 weeks ago
Primary = Primary...Caucus = Caucus.... Texas awards delegates separately for each of these. This question only asks about the primary, it does not mention the caucus, the settlement was appropriate.
posted 38 weeks ago
once again, historyteacher has it right, if you do not assume anything more than what the question asks.
Primary = Primary ... Caucus = Causus
Do not confuse the awarding of delegates with one or the other. they are separate issues.
Hillary won the Primary.
posted 38 weeks ago
Just as a "FYI": (does not affect the outcome of this market)

Obama Wins Most Texas Delegates

1 hour ago Associated Press

WASHINGTON (AP) — Sen. Barack Obama has won the overall delegate race in Texas thanks to a strong showing in Democratic county conventions this past weekend.

Obama picked up seven of nine outstanding delegates, giving him a total of 99 Texas delegates to the party's national convention this summer. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton won the other two, giving her a total of 94 Texas delegates, according to an analysis of returns by The Associated Press.


<http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5i_QDnA56kHa3qYl41FUYT3PLHJvwD8VOK68O0>
posted 35 weeks ago

Please log in or join to add a comment

What is Hubdub?

Hubdub makes news more exciting by letting you stake virtual dollars on the outcomes of real running news stories.

Join now   or   learn more