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Will Clinton drop out of the Democratic race if she loses on March 4th?

Settled as No

Clinton has won on March 4th. And therefore has won the pledged delegate count for that day.
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/dates/index.html#20080304

Background:

With Obama on a roll, will Clinton fold if she continues to loss?
 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Yes
5%
No
95%
Activity: H$58,495
Settled as No on Wed 5th Mar 5:25am PST
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.
If she loses in the total pledged delegate count for March 4th (All states included) and then dropouts within a week the market settles as a yes if not a no. So if she wins in the pledged delegate count and doesn't drop out the market settles as a no.


Suspend date: Wed 12th Mar 12:59am PDT

Settlement date: Wed 5th Mar 5:25am PST

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 60%

Action history:

Created Wed 20th Feb 7:23pm PST by kryptic
Edited Thu 21st Feb 10:15am PST by ryanj[Admin]
Edited Thu 21st Feb 5:50pm PST by ryanj[Admin]
Edited Fri 22nd Feb 2:05pm PST by ryanj[Admin]
Edited Sat 23rd Feb 3:21pm PST by ryanj[Admin]
Settlement requested Wed 5th Mar 4:26am PST by kryptic: cnn.com
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source. ... read all

 

Predictions (140)

140 predictions

32 weeks ago
myunion predicted No (H$20 at 95%)
32 weeks ago
klausmitte predicted No (H$20 at 92%)
32 weeks ago
ondra predicted No (H$100 at 92%)
32 weeks ago
palko predicted No (H$100 at 91%)
32 weeks ago
bannisterail predicted No (H$100 at 84%)
more

Comments (15)

Hmmm ... without a suspend date, Clinton could lose on March 4th (lose either Ohio or Texas) ... and continue on to Puerto Rico ... and, I guess, anytime up to the convention in August ... and this question would still be open.

Also, similar to <http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Will_Hillary_Clinton_drop_out_of_the_US_Democratic_primary_after_March_5th_1755/view>
-- which has it's own set of problems.
posted 34 weeks ago
  2 ryanj[Admin]
I'm sending an email to Kryptic asking him when he wants this to end. A possible option would be will she dropout before the next primaries or within a week.

Ryan
Hubdub U.S. Politics Content Editor
posted 33 weeks ago
  3 swilson[Power User]
I think whether she loses on March 4th is irrelevent. While I wouldn't think she'd drop out if she wins both primaries, the real question is will she drop out of the race. So the question may be will she end her candiacy (is that suspend her candidacy - which is a status that I believe Mitt Romney still holds, or officially ends)? These questions sound small but I've lost a third of my worth in 4 days due to "technicalities".
posted 33 weeks ago
  4 ryanj[Admin]
Have not received a response as of yet from Kryptic. Therefore I am making this settle within a week of the 4th.

Ryan
Hubdub U.S. Politics Content Editor
posted 33 weeks ago
  5 melmel07
are we assuming she loses all four, or will it apply if she loses ANY of the states, etc? will the question be voided if she sweeps or only loses 1 or 2?
posted 33 weeks ago
In my view, for this question to be settled as "Yes", Clinton would need to lose the pledged delegate count in at least one primary on March 4, 2008, and drop out of the race by March 11, 2008.
posted 33 weeks ago
  7 ryanj[Admin]
If she loses in the total pledged delegate count for March 4th (All states included) and then dropouts within a week the market settles as a yes if not a no. So if she wins in the pledged delegate count and doesn't drop out the market settles as a no.

Ryan
Hubdub U.S. Politics Content Editor
posted 33 weeks ago
  8 destry[Admin]
So what if Clinton loses Texas big, squeaks out a small win in Ohio, then drops out of the race, how would this question be settled. Doesn't this fall into the rules of "if one part of question is not true then question is not true".
posted 33 weeks ago
  9 ryanj[Admin]
Hi destry,

This is all about the total delegate delegate count. On the day if Clinton loses the count and then drops out this is settled as a yes.

Ryan
Hubdub U.S. Politics Content Editor
posted 33 weeks ago
  10 kryptic
Hi. This is Kryptic. Didn't get the email about this question. The point is, if she loses on March 4th, will she drop out of the race due to the loss. So basically, if she concedes on March 4th, or perhaps March 5th but due to the votes on March 4th, then the answer is "yes". If she does not drop out, then the answer is "no", even if she concedes later on in the race. So the end date should be no earlier than March 5th, just to give time for votes to be counted, debated, etc. And yes, I meant delegate count, since that seems to be what will determine the nominee.

Sorry for confusion. I thought this was pretty clear.
posted 32 weeks ago
  11 kryptic
So yeah, basically what Dr. Ryan said. :-)
posted 32 weeks ago
  12 satyaki
what if she wins ???
posted 32 weeks ago
  13 txlatina
yeah ...since she did win
posted 32 weeks ago
  14 zimm001
Shouldn't this be voided since the question was "if she loses" will she drop out?
posted 31 weeks ago
  15 ryanj[Admin]
The settlement details given have an explanation of what "lose" would be defined as. "If she loses in the total pledged delegate count for March 4th (All states included) and then dropouts within a week the market settles as a yes if not a no. So if she wins in the pledged delegate count and doesn't drop out the market settles as a no. "

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor
posted 31 weeks ago

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