Will Clinton drop out of the Democratic race if she loses on March 4th?

Hmmm ... without a suspend date, Clinton could lose on March 4th (lose either Ohio or Texas) ... and continue on to Puerto Rico ... and, I guess, anytime up to the convention in August ... and this question would still be open.

Also, similar to <http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Will_Hillary_Clinton_drop_out_of_the_US_Democratic_primary_after_March_5th_1755/view>
-- which has it's own set of problems.

I'm sending an email to Kryptic asking him when he wants this to end. A possible option would be will she dropout before the next primaries or within a week.

Ryan
Hubdub U.S. Politics Content Editor

I think whether she loses on March 4th is irrelevent. While I wouldn't think she'd drop out if she wins both primaries, the real question is will she drop out of the race. So the question may be will she end her candiacy (is that suspend her candidacy - which is a status that I believe Mitt Romney still holds, or officially ends)? These questions sound small but I've lost a third of my worth in 4 days due to "technicalities".

Have not received a response as of yet from Kryptic. Therefore I am making this settle within a week of the 4th.

Ryan
Hubdub U.S. Politics Content Editor

are we assuming she loses all four, or will it apply if she loses ANY of the states, etc? will the question be voided if she sweeps or only loses 1 or 2?

In my view, for this question to be settled as "Yes", Clinton would need to lose the pledged delegate count in at least one primary on March 4, 2008, and drop out of the race by March 11, 2008.

If she loses in the total pledged delegate count for March 4th (All states included) and then dropouts within a week the market settles as a yes if not a no. So if she wins in the pledged delegate count and doesn't drop out the market settles as a no.

Ryan
Hubdub U.S. Politics Content Editor

So what if Clinton loses Texas big, squeaks out a small win in Ohio, then drops out of the race, how would this question be settled. Doesn't this fall into the rules of "if one part of question is not true then question is not true".

Hi destry,

This is all about the total delegate delegate count. On the day if Clinton loses the count and then drops out this is settled as a yes.

Ryan
Hubdub U.S. Politics Content Editor

Hi. This is Kryptic. Didn't get the email about this question. The point is, if she loses on March 4th, will she drop out of the race due to the loss. So basically, if she concedes on March 4th, or perhaps March 5th but due to the votes on March 4th, then the answer is "yes". If she does not drop out, then the answer is "no", even if she concedes later on in the race. So the end date should be no earlier than March 5th, just to give time for votes to be counted, debated, etc. And yes, I meant delegate count, since that seems to be what will determine the nominee.

Sorry for confusion. I thought this was pretty clear.

So yeah, basically what Dr. Ryan said. :-)

what if she wins ???

yeah ...since she did win

Shouldn't this be voided since the question was "if she loses" will she drop out?

The settlement details given have an explanation of what "lose" would be defined as. "If she loses in the total pledged delegate count for March 4th (All states included) and then dropouts within a week the market settles as a yes if not a no. So if she wins in the pledged delegate count and doesn't drop out the market settles as a no. "

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor