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Will Colin Powell endorse Barack Obama?

Hubdub users say: Powell does not endorse Obama (74% chance 1% )
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Powell does not endorse Obama with a probability of 74% (up 1% in last 1 day)

On Wednesday, April 9, Colin Powell said on Good Morning America: “I’m looking at all three candidates, I know them all very, very well, I consider myself a friend of each and every one of them, and I have not decided who I will vote for yet.”
 
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Powell endorses Obama prior to June 1
0%
Powell endorses Obama between June 1 and the Democratic Convention
20%
Powell endorses Obama after the Democratic Convention
6%
Powell does not endorse Obama
74%
Activity: H$75,186
Question suspends in 5 weeks
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Suspend date: Mon 1st Sep 12:59am PDT (5 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Powell endorses Obama prior to June 1: 10%, Powell endorses Obama between June 1 and the Democratic Convention: 10%, Powell endorses Obama after the Democratic Convention: 25%, Powell does not endorse Obama: 55%

Action history:

Created Thu 10th Apr 10:11am PDT by bayoubear
Suspended Mon 2nd Jun 12:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Unsuspended Mon 2nd Jun 3:27pm PDT by ryanj[Admin]
Unsuspended Mon 2nd Jun 3:28pm PDT by ryanj[Admin]
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.... read all

 
1 week ago
bigken1 predicted Powell endorses Obama after the Democratic Convention (H$50)
1 week ago
bude predicted Powell does not endorse Obama (H$50)
2 weeks ago
j78suited predicted Powell does not endorse Obama (H$100)
2 weeks ago
jasonr predicted Powell endorses Obama after the Democratic Convention (H$50)
2 weeks ago
chris07007 predicted Powell endorses Obama between June 1 and the Democratic Convention (H$50)
2 weeks ago
abbey predicted Powell does not endorse Obama (H$293)
2 weeks ago
agitproper predicted Powell does not endorse Obama (H$200)
2 weeks ago
orchidnyc predicted Powell does not endorse Obama (H$20)
2 weeks ago
theib predicted Powell does not endorse Obama (H$50)
2 weeks ago
back2thefuture predicted Powell does not endorse Obama (H$20)
  1 randburg
Settlement date is not clearly indicated, so I am guessing:

This prediction SUSPENDS on June 11th and SETTLES on election day in November, unless Colin Powell endorses Obama before that time. Correct?
posted 14 weeks ago
  2 gregmatta
Suspends on June 1st.
posted 14 weeks ago
  3 ryanj[Admin]
Randburg, as I read it your correct, but as greg said the suspend date is actually the 1st. Besides that market looks healthy and ready for trading.

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor
posted 14 weeks ago
  4 randburg
I don't want my hubdub investment tied up for six months with no access...I like bayoubear's questions very much, but we also need to keep hubdub money FLOWING...so that we can invest in MORE bayoubear questions!

It's my opinion that Powell won't endorse Obama, and that will take settlement of this question all the way to the election.
posted 11 weeks ago
  5 bayoubear
You may be correct, and probably I should have changed the date....but at the time of the question I thought there might really be a chance of it being settled earlier...I'll try to do better next time

Thanks
posted 10 weeks ago
lol no chance... I saw Colin powell speak at my university (quite the treat!) and he seemed to be fairly conservative... if he had run for president he would have won, but he joked that his wife wouldn't let him lol.
posted 7 weeks ago
  7 elly
Sorry, but finally when will be suspend date?
posted 7 weeks ago
  8 ryanj[Admin]
Hi elly,

The market suspends in 12 weeks.

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub Category Editor
posted 7 weeks ago
  9 elly
Thanks Ryan,
so much time....
posted 7 weeks ago
  10 jamalpeter
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20080613.BCPOWELL13/TPStory/National

Not an endorsement, (unless Ryan says it is), but definitely and indication that this market isn't near settled yet.
posted 5 weeks ago
  11 jamalpeter
"an" indication...
posted 5 weeks ago
  12 ironman288
i wouldn't read to much into that. If he isn't sure who he's going to vote for he certainly wont be endorsing either one of them.
posted 5 weeks ago
he may, the Rep. party has treated him badly, and he is one of their best statesmen....he surely won't be joining McCain on the campaign trail...and if he endorses anyone, it will be obama....
posted 5 weeks ago
  14 ironman288
He is a conservative man, he's not going to campaign for the most liberal senator ever. Aside from the personal differences in views (from what I've heard colin say) he hopes to run for president some day i think and he would have to do so as a republican.
posted 5 weeks ago
why is it that every democrat is referred to as "the most liberal senator EVER?" ....are they geting more and more liberal? Really? For reference: Ted Kennedy has been called the most liberal ever, then last election, it was John Kerry.... you say liberal as if it is a bad thing... Liberal:
broad: showing or characterized by broad-mindedness; "a broad political stance"; "generous and broad sympathies"; "a liberal newspaper"; "tolerant ...
having political or social views favoring reform and progress
tolerant of change; not bound by authoritarianism, orthodoxy, or tradition
a person who favors a political philosophy of progress and reform and the protection of civil liberties
big: given or giving freely; "was a big tipper"; "the bounteous goodness of God"; "bountiful compliments"; "a freehanded host"; "a handsome allowance"; "Saturday's child is loving and giving"; "a liberal backer of the arts"; "a munificent gift"; "her fond and openhanded grandfather"
a person who favors an economic theory of laissez-faire and self-regulating markets
free: not literal; "a loose interpretation of what she had been told"; "a free translation of the poem"
posted 5 weeks ago
CONSERVATIVE:
resistant to change
opposed to liberal reforms
cautious: avoiding excess; "a conservative estimate"
button-down: unimaginatively conventional; "a colorful character in the buttoned-down, dull-grey world of business"- Newsweek
a person who has conservative ideas or opinions
bourgeois: conforming to the standards and conventions of the middle class; "a bourgeois mentality"
posted 5 weeks ago
  17 Erik
Very good, michael. Now, you might want to research the definitions of the terms, "politically conservative" and "politically liberal."
(Here's a hint: It has to do with the Constitution. See: Federalist Papers)
posted 5 weeks ago
  18 Erik
Micheal> being politically conservative has absolutely nothing to do with avoiding excess, being button-down, unimaginatively conventional, having conservative ideas or opinions or conforming to the standards and conventions of the middle class.
It may be worth a bet that this old hippy, with hair down to the middle of his back, is more politically conservative than Ronald Reagan was.
posted 5 weeks ago
I'm sorry to hear that, while you hold on to your long hair and hippie title, you've left all of the idealism behind...
posted 5 weeks ago
@f_o_f LOL - another gem from He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Middle-Named!
posted 5 weeks ago
I don't know if this indicates anything, but here is a link...

The story starts with "After his speech condemning President George Bush's Iraq and Guantanamo Bay policies Thursday, retired four-star general Colin Powell chowed down with 40 locals ... "
http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/news/westcoastnews/story.html?id=c2a0186b-5990-4272-bb7f-337f0c6fc687&k=29035
posted 5 weeks ago
  23 jamalpeter
See, for me, that's about as much of an endorsement as one can get from Powell. U.S. active duty military members are forbidden by law from criticizing a President. Powell is well aware of his position, the respect that is due him, this law, his own ethics, etc. He's not going to outright do a traditional endorsement a la Gore. (Even Gore endorsed way after the questions was settled. Who does he think he will influence? Republicans?) Instead, if Powell revisits this issue again, it will be after the presidential race is over. And then it will be either, "Obama would have made..." or "Obama will be a...".

posted 5 weeks ago
From article coolkraft shared: The danger for McCain is that desire for a therapeutic electoral bloodbath could get out of control.

Hmmm... so I'm not the only conservative that desires a "therapeutic electoral bloodbath".
posted 3 weeks ago
  26 mork[Power User]
oooo boy
That has a nice ring to it.
Too bad this election is going to have to come to an end.
posted 3 weeks ago
Yeah, this is getting exciting!

Go Colin Powell! (and take Barack with you!)
posted 3 weeks ago
  28 coolkraft
Colin Powell is one of Obama's advisors on foreign affairs (along with many others) and Obama is, of course, wooing him for an endorsement
posted 5 days ago
I saw this headline and was dissapointed to learn that it had NOTHING to do with King Leonidas his associates and their snappy retorts...

Cast of 300 advises Obama on foreign policy... http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/07/18/america/18advisers.php

"Yes We Can! HA-OOH! HA-OOH! HA-OOH!"

Obama!
Yes my lady?
Come back with your Presidential seal, or on it!
Yes my lady.

"Come Barack, let us reason together. It would be a regrettable waste. It would be nothing short of madness for you, brave king, and your valiant troops to perish. All because of a simple misunderstanding. There is much our campaigns could share."

and while watching election days results..."Unless I miss my guess, we're in for one wild night."
posted 5 days ago

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