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Will David Cameron be the UK's next Prime Minister?

Current forecast: 50% chance 18%
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 50% likely to happen (down 18% in last 1 day)

The tories are gathering support in the wake of Brown's sequence of misfortunes. Can Cameron capitalize and get the top spot in UK politics?


Settlement details: As announced by the BBC after Gordon Brown ceases to be the UK's Premiere.

 
Forecast history, %
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Yes
50%
No
50%
Activity: H$15,247
Question suspends in 1 year

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 2009 12am PST (1 year to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 40%

Action history:

Created Thu 10th Jan 5:07pm PST by tomg[Admin]
Edited Thu 6th Mar 12:53pm PST by chris[Admin]

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 2009 12am PST (1 year to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (35)

35 predictions

3 days ago
daddeoh predicted Yes (H$100 at 49%)
2 weeks ago
steve2007 predicted Yes (H$50 at 69%)
2 weeks ago
pieboyjr predicted No (H$20 at 31%)
2 weeks ago
cheese predicted No (H$100 at 31%)
3 weeks ago
lcsnor predicted No (H$50 at 29%)
more

Comments (2)

  1 ryanj[Admin]
Time Travel is now possible!!!!!!!
posted 44 weeks ago
Clarification: If Gordon Brown resigns and a current Labour MP becomes PM by default, is this settled as "No"?
posted 16 weeks ago

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