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Will Google Make An Offer For Yahoo To Challenge Microsofts Bid?

Settled as No

http://www.reuters.com/article/internetNews/idUSWEN541420080504


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

This is settled if Google makes an offer before Microsoft buys Yahoo.

It is not dependent on the acceptance of Googles Offer, only that one is made.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Yes
31%
No
69%
Activity: H$85,073
Settled as No on Sun 4th May 12:16am PDT

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (4 weeks to go) Settlement date: Sun 4th May 12:16am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sat 3rd May 8:35am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

Created Fri 1st Feb 3:04pm PST by bondhunter
Edited Thu 6th Mar 12:25pm PST by nigeleccles[Admin]

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (4 weeks to go) Settlement date: Sun 4th May 12:16am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sat 3rd May 8:35am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (408)

408 predictions

31 weeks ago
heiniack predicted No (H$71 at 69%)
31 weeks ago
bododavid predicted No (H$50 at 77%)
31 weeks ago
arch3rx predicted No (H$100 at 77%)
32 weeks ago
aumdada predicted No (H$100 at 77%)
32 weeks ago
rturner0809 predicted No (H$300 at 77%)
more

Comments (10)

  1 doloop
This is an interesting question, but who wants to tie up their Hubdub dollars for so long? (Settlement date is Dec 31, 2008)
posted 43 weeks ago
It would close on 12/31/08 if there is not a sale.

MS or Google isn't going to let it go that long.

I figure that Yahoo, while failing as a business model currently, it is a very valuable asset for anyone to have, but really a "must have" asset for MS, they know it and Google knows it...it would make for a great coup if Google did buy Yahoo!

If I was Google I'd be going for it, if only to generate news and hype and to tick Bill Gates off a little more! But that's me and I'm a sadist when it comes to MS/Google battles! ;)
posted 43 weeks ago
Google will not make a bid for Yahoo! because they already control around 60%- 70% of the internet search business, therefore, the bid would NEVER make it thru US nor International regulators, however, they are possibly discussing an "alliance" in order to stave off this takeover attempt by Microsoft as Yahoo! execs. feel that the offer undervalues them. Yahoo! reportedly wants $39 - $45 per share, this though is irrelevant to the question at hand, but I still do not think Google would make a "bid" to outright purchase Yahoo! as like I said, this would NEVER be approved by the Government.
posted 43 weeks ago
  4 shadowfax
lucidstates, very approp. name. your response is right on! therefore q/wagers like these need to start at much lower odds.
The deal if realized (msft buys yhoo) will end up like Xerox' $1 billion purchase of Scientific Data Systems in 1969 and AT&T's $7.5 billion purchase of NCR in 1991.
posted 43 weeks ago
Here's an interesting article on the fallout from the MS offer and what Google can, could and might do.

http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/02/04/how-google-could-keep-yahoo-from-microsoft/?ref=technology

Guess the old adage "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" still works in the Internet Age...
posted 43 weeks ago
The phrasing "make an offer" is pretty vague. Yet again, another hubdub poorly worded question.

And I doubt this would be settled prior to 12/31/2008. Even if Yahoo says "yes" to MS, it would go through 8-12 months of review. During that time, Google could make an offer. Similarly, if the MS/Yahoo deal did close, Google could still make an offer (however that is defined ) for Yahoo.
posted 43 weeks ago
  7 swilson
I agree about the terminology used in saying "Will Google 'Make An Offer'". Will they make an offer to buy Yahoo, probably not. Will they make an offer to create an alliance to fend off MS's buyout? I'd say they already did. This question really should be modified or withdrawn.
posted 42 weeks ago
  8 shadowfax
nice posts here thanks. enemy of enemy is a timeless adage I had overlooked.
glad to read I wasn't too far off regarding the actual physical "offer" being less than a 50/50 start point.
notice the immediate drop on the graph?
an alliance now, that may be a possible 50/50 start. yup, this one has got to void and be re-worded etc.
posted 42 weeks ago
  9 tomg[Admin]
See rules for clarification on definition of 'Offer':
2.3.4 Business Category

* For questions with regards takeovers an ‘offer’ is defined as public or private offer to buy the target company. Offers of assistance do not count.
posted 36 weeks ago
Thanks for that TOMG, I thought so anyway, but yeah, now you've made it clear, thanks man :-)

Shadowfax, you are a brilliant thinker, hehe, I like how you tied MSFT's purchasing YHOO to Xerox/SDS and AT&T/NCR :-D This merger will be a disaster for MSFT and that is why I am 100% for it! Hahaha, DOWN WITH THE EVIL EMPIRE!!! I hate Microsoft and I live in Seattle (across the water from Redmond) and I have an Apple Sticker on my car, hahaha, eat that Microsuck!! ... Seriously though, this deal will do serious damage to MSFT and though it will do damage to YHOO too, which is unfortunate, WAR does have a cost and so the sacrifice must be Yahoo, but as long as MSFT suffers, I am all for it and thus I am also hoping for an even more expensive takeover, I hope it tops $50 billion, thus causing MSFT even more long term pain :-D
Statistics of large mergers are terrible! Less then 10% of all jumbo mergers ever work out and most cause a severe loss problem for the companies within 5 years!

lucidstates
posted 33 weeks ago

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