Will Gordon Brown still be the UK's Prime Minister on 1st Nov 2008?

Poor Gordon Brown (excuse the sarcasm).

Assessing his current predicament, one can draw many parallels with previous PMs and Labour leaders. Like James Callaghan, he opted not to call an early election when he really should have and the scale of Labours recent defeat in the English and Welsh local elections are comparable to that suffered under Michael Foot in the 1983 General Election.

But the most interesting parallel I feel is with Mrs Thatcher. After a decade of hubris, she introduced the poll tax and was stabbed in the back her own party. Mr Brown's followed his decade of hubris (much of it as a Chancellor of unprecedented influence) with his poll tax moment; the abolition of the 10p tax ban. Time will tell though whether he will be stabbed in the back amidst the resurgence of the Tories, rising criticism from within his own party and an increasingly hostile press.

But while Gordon Brown's ignominious demise is inevitable, I don't think it is likely to come soon. The political careers and ambitions of the likes of Miliband and Balls would be better served by having Gordon Brown lose the next election; thereby allowing them to step in, regroup in opposition, and have a better shot at election victory the next time round.

So, like I said; poor Gordon Brown. His long wait to become PM was probably agonizing and torturous. Now, a year after achieving his ambition, his remaining years as PM are likely to be agonizing and torturous too.