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Will Gordon Brown still be the UK's Prime Minister on 1st Nov 2008?
Gordon Brown still the UK Prime Minister
Background:
Assessing his current predicament, one can draw many parallels with previous PMs and Labour leaders. Like James Callaghan, he opted not to call an early election when he really should have and the scale of Labours recent defeat in the English and Welsh local elections are comparable to that suffered under Michael Foot in the 1983 General Election.
But the most interesting parallel I feel is with Mrs Thatcher. After a decade of hubris, she introduced the poll tax and was stabbed in the back her own party. Mr Brown's followed his decade of hubris (much of it as a Chancellor of unprecedented influence) with his poll tax moment; the abolition of the 10p tax ban. Time will tell though whether he will be stabbed in the back amidst the resurgence of the Tories, rising criticism from within his own party and an increasingly hostile press.
But while Gordon Brown's ignominious demise is inevitable, I don't think it is likely to come soon. The political careers and ambitions of the likes of Miliband and Balls would be better served by having Gordon Brown lose the next election; thereby allowing them to step in, regroup in opposition, and have a better shot at election victory the next time round.
So, like I said; poor Gordon Brown. His long wait to become PM was probably agonizing and torturous. Now, a year after achieving his ambition, his remaining years as PM are likely to be agonizing and torturous too.
Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.
| Yes |
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| No |
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- Activity: H$151,555 |
- Predictions: 215 |
Comments: 6
Suspend date: Fri 31st Oct 2008 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Sun 2nd Nov 2008 11:26pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 31st Oct 2008 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: Yes: 70%
Action history:
ryanj
chris
keyeshoveden![[Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif "This user is a super user"){kind=icon}
: Well he was, wasn't he? 
tisha
Suspend date: Fri 31st Oct 2008 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Sun 2nd Nov 2008 11:26pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 31st Oct 2008 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details 
Get widget!Predictions (215)
stereothumbs
predicted Yes (H$100 at 98%)
jquentel
predicted Yes (H$100 at 98%)
harryhayfield
predicted Yes (H$100 at 98%)
lius
predicted No (H$20 at 2%)
predicted Yes (H$100 at 97%)Comments (6)
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"A junior minister resigned from Prime Minister Gordon Brown's government on Tuesday, increasing the pressure for a leadership challenge against the embattled Labour Party leader.
(...)
Many in Brown's governing Labour Party are dismayed at opinion polls showing the main opposition Conservatives leading Labour by more than 20 points with a general election looming by May 2010.
(...)"
http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5gZeydG3fV7hgQQPsHWNef0hoUPJA
In relation to this prediction market, if the majority of users understood the tenuous thread under which Gordon Baby holds power, the market would be around 60%, not 83%. Brown is PM today, but may not be within 30 days, and if it happens it'll take a total of 48 hours or thereabouts. Not four years.
None of this fascist, dictatorship crap for us Westminster lovers. Don't get me started either on the highly democratic "First Past the Post" electoral system, resulting in 51% of Americans not electing George W Bush? I guess it so easy to understand isn't it, it must be good?
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