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Will Gordon Brown still be the UK's Prime Minister on 1st Nov 2008?

Settled as Yes

Gordon Brown still the UK Prime Minister

Background:

Background: Poor Gordon Brown (excuse the sarcasm).

Assessing his current predicament, one can draw many parallels with previous PMs and Labour leaders. Like James Callaghan, he opted not to call an early election when he really should have and the scale of Labours recent defeat in the English and Welsh local elections are comparable to that suffered under Michael Foot in the 1983 General Election.

But the most interesting parallel I feel is with Mrs Thatcher. After a decade of hubris, she introduced the poll tax and was stabbed in the back her own party. Mr Brown's followed his decade of hubris (much of it as a Chancellor of unprecedented influence) with his poll tax moment; the abolition of the 10p tax ban. Time will tell though whether he will be stabbed in the back amidst the resurgence of the Tories, rising criticism from within his own party and an increasingly hostile press.

But while Gordon Brown's ignominious demise is inevitable, I don't think it is likely to come soon. The political careers and ambitions of the likes of Miliband and Balls would be better served by having Gordon Brown lose the next election; thereby allowing them to step in, regroup in opposition, and have a better shot at election victory the next time round.

So, like I said; poor Gordon Brown. His long wait to become PM was probably agonizing and torturous. Now, a year after achieving his ambition, his remaining years as PM are likely to be agonizing and torturous too.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Yes
99%
No
1%
Settled as Yes on Sun 2nd Nov 2008 11:26pm PST

Suspend date: Fri 31st Oct 2008 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Sun 2nd Nov 2008 11:26pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 31st Oct 2008 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 70%

Action history:

Created Tue 19th Feb 2008 6:07am PST by tomg[Admin]
Edited Tue 19th Feb 2008 2:19pm PST by tomg[Admin]
Edited Wed 20th Feb 2008 9:01am PST by ryanj
Edited Thu 6th Mar 2008 12:42pm PST by chris[Admin]
Suspended Fri 31st Oct 2008 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Sun 2nd Nov 2008 11:20pm PST by keyeshoveden[Power User]: Well he was, wasn't he?
Settled as 'Yes' Sun 2nd Nov 2008 11:26pm PST by tisha[Admin]: Gordon Brown still the UK Prime Minister

Suspend date: Fri 31st Oct 2008 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Sun 2nd Nov 2008 11:26pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 31st Oct 2008 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details

 

Predictions (215)

1 year ago
stereothumbs predicted Yes (H$100 at 98%)
1 year ago
jquentel predicted Yes (H$100 at 98%)
1 year ago
harryhayfield predicted Yes (H$100 at 98%)
1 year ago
lius predicted No (H$20 at 2%)
1 year ago
harrism predicted Yes (H$100 at 97%)

Comments (6)

  1 kruijs[Power User]
Pressure builds on Brown as minister quits

"A junior minister resigned from Prime Minister Gordon Brown's government on Tuesday, increasing the pressure for a leadership challenge against the embattled Labour Party leader.
(...)
Many in Brown's governing Labour Party are dismayed at opinion polls showing the main opposition Conservatives leading Labour by more than 20 points with a general election looming by May 2010.
(...)"

http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5gZeydG3fV7hgQQPsHWNef0hoUPJA
posted 1 year ago
  2 gingerboi
Americans just don't get the Westminster system do they, eh Krujis? This must be resolved with a call to arms, dear sir. Opinion Polls at 40 paces! Gentlemen, draw your ballots! AIM... FIRE!
posted 1 year ago
  3 kruijs[Power User]
hu?
posted 1 year ago
  4 gingerboi
Republican Presidential System - one leader is elected every four years by direct mandate of voters transmitted through indirect mandate of electoral college vote of 583 representatives. Westminster System: Go to bed Prime Minister, wake up to a leadership challenge from your cabinet, and your toast at breakfast.

In relation to this prediction market, if the majority of users understood the tenuous thread under which Gordon Baby holds power, the market would be around 60%, not 83%. Brown is PM today, but may not be within 30 days, and if it happens it'll take a total of 48 hours or thereabouts. Not four years.

None of this fascist, dictatorship crap for us Westminster lovers. Don't get me started either on the highly democratic "First Past the Post" electoral system, resulting in 51% of Americans not electing George W Bush? I guess it so easy to understand isn't it, it must be good?
posted 1 year ago
Brown will clearly survive now until the next General Election. The labour party does not shoot lame horses.
posted 1 year ago
  6 curios
gingerboi its a pity they don't understand the Westminster system the last time i made a comment on the (American way ) i got blown out the water look firstly at the cost unbelievable over there. there are very few none rich senators or yet any one on capitol hill
posted 1 year ago

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