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Will Grand Theft Auto IV be blamed for an act of violence the day of its release?

Settled as Yes

GTA has been blamed for ridiculous things in the past, will it occur the day of release?
 
Forecast history, %
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Settled

Yes
27%
No
73%
Activity: H$32,415
Settled as Yes on Wed 30th Apr 8:07am PDT
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source on whatever day the game officially release, as a full 24hr cycle. Since the game is a huge name, it will likely be sold at 12am on some day, so from 12am-12am.

Suspend date: Tue 29th Apr 12:59am PDT

Settlement date: Wed 30th Apr 8:07am PDT

Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 29th Apr 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 75%

Action history:

Created Wed 12th Mar 8:54pm PDT by skirvir
Edited Thu 13th Mar 1:15am PDT by tisha[Admin]
Suspended Mon 17th Mar 9:03am PDT by tisha[Admin]
Unsuspended Mon 17th Mar 11:13am PDT by tisha[Admin]
Suspended Mon 17th Mar 11:15am PDT by tisha[Admin]: Suspended pending clarification from user.
Unsuspended Mon 17th Mar 1:03pm PDT by tisha[Admin]
Clarified Mon 17th Mar 1:04pm PDT by tisha[Admin]: See comment from question creator for clarification.
Suspended Tue 29th Apr 12:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Suspended Tue 29th Apr 12:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Tue 29th Apr 1:32pm PDT by skirvir: Sadly it didn't take long, via New York Times:

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,353157,00.html
Settled as 'Yes' Tue 29th Apr 1:37pm PDT by tisha[Admin]: Man stabbed waiting in GTA line! Just as predicted in comments...! http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,353157,00.html
Previous action withdrawn Tue 29th Apr 1:50pm PDT by tisha[Admin]: Whoops - occurred 11pm the night before.
Settlement requested Wed 30th Apr 7:52am PDT by chris[Admin]: http://www.reghardware.co.uk/2008/04/30/gta_gamer_stabbed/

that counts right?
Settled as 'Yes' Wed 30th Apr 8:07am PDT by tisha[Admin]: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/1907172/Grand-Theft-Auto-IV-Violence-flares-after-launch.html

I am settling as 'yes' based on the mugging which occurred in Manchester. It was definitely an act of violence - it resulted in a broken jaw and nose.

Additionally, the game was certainly the cause of the violence. The boy was mugged so his attackers could steal the game. The telegraph article states that "Some anti-GTA IV campaigners have already jumped on both incidents as proof that such games are too violent for society. Keith Vaz, a prominent British Labour MP, said that news of both incidents didn't surprise him", which implies a link between the two and reports blame for the violence on the game.

This type of act was specifically envisioned in the clarification by the question creator (see comment 5).
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source on whatever day the game officially release, as a full 24hr cycle. Since the game is a huge name, it will likely be sold at 12am on some day, so from 12am-12am.... read all

 

Predictions (134)

134 predictions

17 weeks ago
kruijs[Power User] predicted No (H$1,000 at 71%)
17 weeks ago
morgie predicted No (H$50 at 70%)
17 weeks ago
wyrm predicted No (H$100 at 68%)
17 weeks ago
jaspersoddity predicted No (H$100 at 68%)
17 weeks ago
greenenergy predicted No (H$1,000 at 66%)
more

Comments (23)

  1 owl1
Supposed to release April 29
posted 24 weeks ago
  2 bitakarma
Does the act of violence have to be on the day it is released or is the question settled yes if it is blamed for any act of violence in the past on the day of its release?
posted 24 weeks ago
  3 ryanj[Admin]
GTA causes Cancer!!!!!!!

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor
posted 23 weeks ago
  4 gingerboi
yea ryan, but so does ciggies, oprah winfrey and George W Bush trying to explain foreign policy. Why suspend this question because GTA causes cancer? Can't we put a warning and a horrible photo on the question instead and proceed?
posted 23 weeks ago
  5 tisha[Admin]
Clarification from question creator, as posted on Get Satisfaction. This is the clarification that will be used to settle the question:

I'm referring to an act of violence the day of the new games release (full 24hr cycle), seeing as how its a big name, that likely means from April 29th 12am - 11:59pm.

InfernalMachine has explained this as I intended when I wrote up the question. If some act of violence occurs within that day, specific to GTA IV, not previous games.

I'm not saying 'chaos' necessarily, just anything, somebody stabs or starts a fight with another in line waiting for the game, or robs someone who did buy it, or god forbid someone actually gets killed the day of release.

I can't predict it but I felt and still feel pretty strongly that somewhere this game will be blamed for some violent act the day of release. Note, this could also include somebody foreseeing that the game results in something (harm, death etc) in the future, ie speculation.

The point of this question was to raise awareness at how ludicrous it is to blame violent acts on game, but that it very likely will happen, as absurd as it is, its just a game, as a gun is just a gun.
posted 23 weeks ago
well i can promise you that someone will say it's going to cause an act of violence, how respectable do they have to be for this question? I mean if Jack Thompson gets on the news (and he will) does he count?
posted 23 weeks ago
  7 gingerboi
Well I'm planning to release another video game on the 29th called "Smack for Jack" with a short plot line involving locating Jack, kidnapping him and making him smoke up a storm until he sounds like Flavor Fla on a good day. That should keep him away from GTA IV and its evil toxins to allow us NO people to clean up.
posted 23 weeks ago
hey where is the news link of the act of violence? i voted not and it said i lost.... so i wanna see the links - how can i?
posted 17 weeks ago
nvm, found it
posted 17 weeks ago
  10 gonzalezbr
1) it was 11pm the night before
2) gta4 was not blamed for the act - the news says a PASSERBY did it, not a gta4 fan or whatever...
posted 17 weeks ago
  11 bitakarma
Gonzalezbr is correct. It did not happen on the day of release. The game could not be blamed for the act since it had not even been released yet. The author of the question made it clear that the act had to happen on the day it was release and blamed on the new version of the game. This was a very poor settlement. Perhaps the hubdub staff should read the question and comments before making a decision of on settlement?
posted 17 weeks ago
  12 tisha[Admin]
OK this was a mistake on my part. The settlement has been retracted, and will be resettled after the day of release or pending further settlement requests.
posted 17 weeks ago
  13 vinicius
Tisha...
http://www.gamegrep.com/news/9205-gta_iv_launch_sees_violence/

GTA IV launch sees violence
chautemoc | 4 hours 59 mins ago | News | Playstation 3 XBOX 360
Apparently the BBC has been reporting on violence in light of the GTA IV launch last evening; thus far we have one stabbing and one mugging. I'm going with the chief on this one: know where the line is, people.

In the mugging, an 18-year-old was robbed of his copy of the game and beaten as he walked home from the store with a friend. The victim was taken to the hospital with a broken jaw and a broken nose.
posted 17 weeks ago
  14 bitakarma
Tisha...
http://www.gamegrep.com/news/9205-gta_iv_launch_sees_violence/


No where in the article does it say that GTA IV was blamed for the attacks. Just appear to be thugs robbing folks of their games. For the question to be settled YES GTA IV has to be blamed as being the cause of the attack, for example someone was playing the game and went out and attacked someone.
posted 17 weeks ago
  15 randburg
bitakarma is right. The content of the game itself must be the cause/incentive of the violence.
posted 17 weeks ago
  16 tisha[Admin]
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/1907172/Grand-Theft-Auto-IV-Violence-flares-after-launch.html

I am settling as 'yes' based on the mugging which occurred in Manchester. It was definitely an act of violence - it resulted in a broken jaw and nose.

Additionally, the game was certainly the cause of the violence. The boy was mugged so his attackers could steal the game. The telegraph article states that "Some anti-GTA IV campaigners have already jumped on both incidents as proof that such games are too violent for society. Keith Vaz, a prominent British Labour MP, said that news of both incidents didn't surprise him", which implies a link between the two and reports blame for the violence on the game.

This type of act was specifically envisioned in the clarification by the question creator (see comment 5).
posted 17 weeks ago
  17 bitakarma
This goes against your very own clairfication. You said "InfernalMachine has explained this as I intended when I wrote up the question. If some act of violence occurs within that day, specific to GTA IV, not previous games."
The qutoe above blames "such games are too violent for society" this specificly relates to games in the past and does NOT relate SPECIFICLY TO GTA IV. This act of violence cannot relate specificly to GTA IV since there was no linkage of playing the game to the person comitting the violence. You clairfy a queston one way and then rule another...it is getting to where it seems settlements are completly random!!!
posted 17 weeks ago
  18 harveyb
I concur with some of bitakarma's comments. The Telegraph story does not draw a connection between the violent content of GTA IV and the mugging. While they also mention violence in this and prior GTA releases, the mugging is covered as an assult and theft without saying that GTA IV was anything more than the item stolen. Once again, settlement is an art, not a science. I wouldn't call it random, but would say that it's not a sufficently predictable process to make this site a long-term success.
posted 17 weeks ago
  19 randburg
"The Telegraph story does not draw a connection between the violent content of GTA IV and the mugging. While they also mention violence in this and prior GTA releases, the mugging is covered as an assult and theft without saying that GTA IV was anything more than the item stolen. "

I agree with harveyb. The same thing could have happened waiting in line after midnight for a new Madonna CD.

Perhaps the question should be whether or not this particular game will draw together a particularly violent group, waiting to purchase it? As it is the question to be decided is will the game be BLAMED for violence?
posted 17 weeks ago
The whole point of this question was whether or not playing the game would cause violence- cleary this mugging was not a cause of playing the new GTA game.
Once again, I am disappointed with Hubdub.
posted 17 weeks ago
  21 mrmike
I agree with greenenergy....poor settlement....

Do you blame Mars Candy Co. if someone grabbed a Snickers bar on the way out the door after robbing the cash drawer?
posted 17 weeks ago
  22 kruijs[Power User]
Looking at the discussion here, looking at the action history in the settlement details...
Seeing the fiasco here:
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/_1027/view

My opinion: Poor hubdub.
And it's getting worse ...
posted 17 weeks ago
  23 awills
I am starting to think that Hubdub admins need to start writing all questions. I am getting sick of betting on the question as it is written, then losing because it is later reinterpreted. If you can't settle the question as written it should be void. Why should I be punished because I bet on this question before the interpretation was laid out? I understand that this site is about having users submit questions. If this is going to continue to be such an issue, have users submit a question to an editor, who can phrase it clearly for posting.
posted 17 weeks ago

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