Created Fri 14th Mar 2008 3:34pm PST by

scout34 Level 5, Predictor (H$1,778)

Will Hamid Karzai run for reelection as President of Afghanistan?

Settled as Yes

Karzai registered as a candidate on May 4 of this year (http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/may/04/afghanistan-president-hamid-karzai-election). Apologies for the delay in settlement; the majority of money placed on this market was placed after Karzai had announced his candidacy, and we had to sort those out.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/virginia-moncrieff/afghanistans-karzai---pre_b_226702.html
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5j2pm1nD6-8IZ3v_mxcl7VzbOXyqQ

Background:

Background: President Karzai has stated he will not run for re-elction, but no viable candidate has emerged and the International Community may pressure him to run again.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Forecast history %

Yes

34%

66%

Settled as Yes on Wed 22nd Jul 4:55pm PST

Activity: H$61,025
Predictions: 50
Comments: 9

Suspend date: Wed 30th Sep 10:59am PST
Settlement date: Wed 22nd Jul 4:55pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 4th May 10:59am PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 15%

Action history:

Created Fri 14th Mar 2008 3:34pm PST by

scout34 Level 5, Predictor (H$1,778)

Edited Sat 15th Mar 2008 6:47am PST by

ryanj

Edited Thu 27th Mar 2008 6:21am PST by

ryanj

Suspended Mon 30th Jun 2008 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached

Unsuspended Tue 8th Jul 2008 5:04am PST by

lesley [Admin]

: There is still no news on this topic. Suspend date is extended to end of 2008.

Suspended Wed 31st Dec 2008 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached

Changed Suspend date Fri 2nd Jan 4:57pm PST by

infernalmachine [Power User]

: was: "2008-12-31 23:59:00"

Unsuspended Fri 2nd Jan 4:57pm PST by

infernalmachine [Power User]

: Election not until second half of 2009

Settlement requested Sun 12th Jul 6:09pm PST by

spyder Level 15, Seer (H$418,949)

: Karzai is an official candidate for the upcoming afghanistan presidential elections. According to:
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5j2pm1nD6-8IZ3v_mxcl7VzbOXyqQ
"Afghan President Hamid Karzai is facing 40 challengers to his bid for a second term."
He has already picked his vice-presidential nominee:
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5j2pm1nD6-8IZ3v_mxcl7VzbOXyqQ
And from all accounts, it looks like he is going to win:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/virginia-moncrieff/afghanistans-karzai---pre_b_226702.html
Either way, he is currently "running for reelection", thus the question settles as yes. Even if he pulls out, or for some other reason (assasination?) does not remain a contender until election day, he is currently "running for reelection". Therefore, we settle as yes.

Settlement requested Wed 22nd Jul 8:04am PST by

spyder Level 15, Seer (H$418,949)

: Karzai is running for reelection and is actively campaigning.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/25/world/asia/25karzai.html
Elections are weeks away.

Suspended Wed 22nd Jul 4:33pm PST by

onedave [Power User]

: Suspended pending settlement

Settlement requested Wed 22nd Jul 4:33pm PST by

onedave [Power User]

: Please settle as 'yes.' Karzai registered as a candidate on May 4.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/may/04/afghanistan-president-hamid-karzai-election (market suspended)

Settled as 'Yes' Wed 22nd Jul 4:55pm PST by

sqlman [Admin]

: Karzai registered as a candidate on May 4 of this year (http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/may/04/afghanistan-president-hamid-karzai-election). Apologies for the delay in settlement; the majority of money placed on this market was placed after Karzai had announced his candidacy, and we had to sort those out.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/virginia-moncrieff/afghanistans-karzai---pre_b_226702.html
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5j2pm1nD6-8IZ3v_mxcl7VzbOXyqQ

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Predictions (50)

16 weeks ago

oztvc

predicted Yes (H$50 at 89%)

31 weeks ago

notablenotices [Power User]

predicted Yes (H$5 at 35%)

38 weeks ago

joetheplumber Level 7, Pro (H$3,894)

predicted Yes (H$50 at 35%)

50 weeks ago

simtack Level 4, Whiz-kid (H$1,280)

predicted Yes (H$100 at 29%)

1 year ago

ratel

predicted Yes (H$100 at 33%)

Comments (9)

phred

when is the election? is 4 weeks enough time for this question?

posted 1 year ago

scout34 Level 5, Predictor (H$1,778)

09 but he is now hinting he will run again-In 4 weeks we may n=know his plans...

posted 1 year ago

bipper Level 11, Legend (H$22,406)

To be clear - if Karzai doesn't announce his position by the time the question suspends, will positions stay open until he does?

posted 1 year ago

lesley [Admin]

Good question bipper. I've emailed scout34 to ask him about it.

Lesley.

posted 1 year ago

lesley [Admin]

The question creator is happy for this suspend date to be extended. I'll set it for end of June, but it may be extended if no announcement is made.

Lesley.

posted 1 year ago

bipper Level 11, Legend (H$22,406)

Thanks Leslie.

posted 1 year ago

lesley [Admin]

I've re-opened this question and set the suspend date for the end of the year. If the elections are to be help in 2009, there should be some news by then.

Lesley
Hubdub Category Manager

posted 1 year ago

notablenotices [Power User]

Afghanistan President signs law to 'legalise' rape
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/world-news/afghanistan-president-signs-law-to-legalise-rape-14249973.html
Afghanistan's President, Hamid Karzai, has signed a law which "legalises" rape, women's groups and the United Nations warn. Critics claim the president helped rush the bill through parliament in a bid to appease Islamic fundamentalists ahead of elections in August.

...

Even the law's sponsors admit Mr Karzai rushed it through to win their votes. Ustad Mohammad Akbari, a prominent Shia political leader, said: "It's electioneering. Most of the Hazara people are unhappy with Mr Karzai."
...
[more at the link]

posted 31 weeks ago

spyder Level 15, Seer (H$418,949)

Why is this question still open? Karzai is running for reelection and is actively campaigning. See for example:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/25/world/asia/25karzai.html

Should settle as "yes"

posted 15 weeks ago

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