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Will Hamid Karzai run for reelection as President of Afghanistan?

Current forecast: 31% chance 2%
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 31% likely to happen (up 2% in last 1 day)

President Karzai has stated he will not run for re-elction, but no viable candidate has emerged and the International Community may pressure him to run again.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Make your prediction!

Yes
31%
No
69%
Activity: H$14,749
Question suspends in 4 weeks

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (4 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 15%

Action history:

Created Fri 14th Mar 4:34pm PDT by scout34
Edited Sat 15th Mar 7:47am PDT by ryanj[Admin]
Edited Thu 27th Mar 7:21am PDT by ryanj[Admin]
Suspended Tue 1st Jul 12:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Unsuspended Tue 8th Jul 6:04am PDT by lesley[Admin]: There is still no news on this topic. Suspend date is extended to end of 2008.

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (4 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (36)

36 predictions

1 week ago
simtack predicted Yes (H$100 at 29%)
11 weeks ago
ratel predicted Yes (H$100 at 33%)
22 weeks ago
questmaster predicted No (H$50 at 63%)
23 weeks ago
dodobird predicted Yes (H$50 at 37%)
24 weeks ago
davib predicted Yes (H$358 at 36%)
more

Comments (7)

  1 phred
when is the election? is 4 weeks enough time for this question?
posted 34 weeks ago
  2 scout34
09 but he is now hinting he will run again-In 4 weeks we may n=know his plans...
posted 33 weeks ago
  3 bipper
To be clear - if Karzai doesn't announce his position by the time the question suspends, will positions stay open until he does?
posted 32 weeks ago
  4 lesley[Admin]
Good question bipper. I've emailed scout34 to ask him about it.

Lesley.
posted 32 weeks ago
  5 lesley[Admin]
The question creator is happy for this suspend date to be extended. I'll set it for end of June, but it may be extended if no announcement is made.

Lesley.
posted 32 weeks ago
  6 bipper
Thanks Leslie.
posted 32 weeks ago
  7 lesley[Admin]
I've re-opened this question and set the suspend date for the end of the year. If the elections are to be help in 2009, there should be some news by then.

Lesley
Hubdub Category Manager
posted 21 weeks ago

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