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Will Hannah Montana star Miley Cyrus manage to keep her clothes on until her 16th birthday?

Settled as Yes

It was touch and go there for a while, but she seems to have learned her lesson for now. No telling what a sixteen year old Miley will get up to this year though -- and with an underwear model for a boyfriend too!

Background:

Background: Miley Cyrus, 15 year old star of Disney franchise Hannah Montana and role model to millions of teenage girls seems to have trouble keeping her clothes on. Recently she appeared 'topless' in Vanity Fair (http://tinyurl.com/5llhpn) and she has previous with photos of her baring her bra and posing in her panties recently surfacing (http://tinyurl.com/4me8bl). The blogosphere is now saying just stop it Miley. You can even join the campaign to save her before she goes fully Britney (http://www.stopitmiley.com/).

Settlement details:This question will be settled as no if Miley Cyrus poses nude, semi-nude, topless (similar to Vanity Fair photos), displaying her bra or in her pants (clarification: that is underpants) before her 16th birthday on November 23rd.

 
Forecast history %
Yes
99%
No
1%
Settled as Yes on Sun 23rd Nov 2008 12:05pm PST

Suspend date: Thu 20th Nov 2008 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Sun 23rd Nov 2008 12:05pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 20th Nov 2008 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 40%

Action history:

Created Tue 29th Apr 2008 12:55am PST by nigeleccles[Admin]
Settlement requested Fri 16th May 2008 6:39am PST by lonewolfjustin: This was announced on May 11, 2008. It falls in the guide lines of the settle due to pants being dropped and showing underwear. http://celebdirtylaundry.com/2008/05/11/this-is-getting-old-more-miley-my-space-pics-released/
Suspended Sat 17th May 2008 9:26am PST by tisha[Admin]: Checking settlement request.
Unsuspended Sun 18th May 2008 1:04pm PST by ryanj[Admin]: The settlement request doesn't fit the settlement guidelines.
Settlement requested Sun 18th May 2008 5:33pm PST by lonewolfjustin: This was announced on May 11, 2008. It falls in the guide lines of the settle due to pants being dropped and showing underwear. The question says underpants and her underpants are showing. The article even talks about her showing her underpants. http://celebdirtylaundry.com/2008/05/11/this-is-getting-old-more-miley-my-space-pics-released/
Settlement requested Sat 24th May 2008 7:49pm PST by lonewolfjustin: Settle as "no" here is another site posted on May 23 showing herself in underwear and fully exposed belly. This is the second site I have supplied showing her showing her underwear which is cause for settlement. http://defamer.com/5010763/tarnished-tween-queen-miley-cyrus-caught-eating-her-clothes-off
Settlement requested Sun 25th May 2008 10:35am PST by owl1: Article says new photos. http://news.aol.com/entertainment/music/music-news-story/ar/_a/more-racy-miley-pics-see-daylight/20080523121109990001
Suspended Mon 26th May 2008 6:52am PST by tisha[Admin]: Checking settlement sources
Settlement requested Thu 29th May 2008 6:42am PST by jenniandboys[Admin]: As far as I can tell, although they are new to the public, the pictures themselves are old. They were sent to her then boyfriend Nick Jonas who I believe she broke up with back in Dec/Jan.

Pictures for Jonas:
http://community.livejournal.com/ohnotheydidnt/23771149.html#cutid1

No longer dating Jonas:
http://www.celebrity-gossip.net/celebrities/hollywood/miley-cyrus-and-nick-jonas-call-it-quits-202554/

Unsuspend please
Unsuspended Thu 29th May 2008 11:03am PST by ryanj[Admin]: Photos must be new, these photos were taken before the first batch was released. Clarifying market with this.
Clarified Thu 29th May 2008 11:03am PST by ryanj[Admin]: Photos must be new photos, the photos released were old, from when Jonas and Miley were dating.
Settlement requested Mon 14th Jul 2008 8:11am PST by lonewolfjustin: Got this from the news sites on hubdubs news links.
http://www.zeenews.com/articles.asp?aid=455253&sid=ent&ssid=1
Settlement requested Mon 14th Jul 2008 10:14am PST by jenniandboys[Admin]: Above settlement request is still for old photos: http://www.themoneytimes.com/articles/20080714/miley_cyrus_shower_snap_scandal-id-1029277.html

As far as I can tell, this market should NOT be settled yet.
Suspended Thu 20th Nov 2008 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Sat 22nd Nov 2008 6:18am PST by scc372: Clearly nothing has come up in the media - how long do you want to wait before settling?!
Settled as 'Yes' Sun 23rd Nov 2008 12:05pm PST by jenniandboys[Admin]: It was touch and go there for a while, but she seems to have learned her lesson for now. No telling what a sixteen year old Miley will get up to this year though -- and with an underwear model for a boyfriend too!

Suspend date: Thu 20th Nov 2008 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Sun 23rd Nov 2008 12:05pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 20th Nov 2008 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details

 

Predictions (382)

32 weeks ago
hoernla predicted Yes (H$10,000 at 98%)
32 weeks ago
jokster89 predicted Yes (H$300 at 98%)
32 weeks ago
kmillard predicted Yes (H$320 at 96%)
32 weeks ago
chrisdhegarty predicted Yes (H$25 at 96%)
32 weeks ago
scc372 predicted Yes (H$270 at 96%)

Comments (58)

  1 lesley[Admin]
Nigel - should I be worried....?!
posted 1 year ago
Not at all. I got Tom to research the question :-)
posted 1 year ago
  3 ryanj[Admin]
Hannah Montana is a sacrifice as Britney was so that the Human race may produce a great food harvest.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M9-2PP16LHA

Reptuse... Domenuse

The Harvest shall be good!!!!
posted 1 year ago
  4 owl1
This will be yes if she poses "in her pants" ??? What does that mean?
posted 1 year ago
That is in what us Brits call pants. Americans would call them underpants. Divided by a common language indeed. I'll update the settlement rules.
posted 1 year ago
  6 chull
Why does it say "will be settled as yes if Miley Cyrus poses nude," shouldn't that be settled as No. If she's doing nude pics, my guess is that she is out of her clothes and therefore did not manage to keep them on. Maybe that's different for our British friends, but in the US thats generally how it works. :)
posted 1 year ago
  7 diana
this is sooo not legal.
posted 1 year ago
  8 skipper
yea its SOOOO not legal
I know for a fact that in the US of A you have to be 18 to legally have pics of u nude or topless anything under is illegal as
'child porn'

and let me just say before my dad (an average American says anything... shut up :P
posted 1 year ago
  9 owl1
Paparazzi don't really care about legal and I think there may be a different set of rules in Hollywierd we are not privy to. And I mean the American meaning of privy.
posted 1 year ago
  10 captainron
This question should NOT be settled if she is at the beach in a bathing suit (aka bikini.) Summer is coming up. That is the appropriate attire for the beach (unless she is posing for a professional photographer.)
Personally, I think she'll be fine. That Vanity Fair shoot really bothered her, especially regarding her younger fan base (who she is targeting!)
posted 1 year ago
  11 skipper
owl1 - I don't care about legal, tbh ;)
and
captainron - bikini =/= (does not equal) bra or topless...
posted 1 year ago
Settlement Requested: she broke from tradition and showered this morning
posted 1 year ago
  13 owl1
I read it was a bath and she kept her scuba suit on so she's OK.
posted 1 year ago
@owl1 - lol
posted 1 year ago
  15 mrperfkt[Admin]
lol @fingers
posted 1 year ago
  16 randburg
I can't pass this one -- I hope she keeps her birthday suit pressed and squeaky shiny...

Isn't she supposed to be PG-13? Or is this a maturing Barbie doll with plasic comb and hairbrush set?
posted 1 year ago
This is ridiculous! ... Just shows how perverse the world is getting ... I am NOT saying this is the first ever shot like this one for VF, but come on, a 15yr old in a sheet? NOW WHAT does that suggest other then "come over grown man and play naughty with me!" ... I am shocked, but mostly cause I am shocked by this, as it should no longer shock me where this world is headed!
I have not seen a single person yet say that this is utterly wrong for a 15yr old and what precedent it sets for other minors to become even more scanty then many already are!
It's sad how sinful man is. We've always been sinful true, but my goodness, soon it'll be a 12yr old cupping herself and THAT's IT and it'll be called "artistic" and will make front pages, that is appalling and it's absurd how far it's going these days.
David Hamilton pics these certainly are not, BUT that is the direction it is headed and we all know it!
posted 1 year ago
  18 ironman288
Well in Japan they call it "loli" and it's a huge market.. of course those are cartoons, and not real girls, but still.

Yeah, it's messed up lucid, but it isn't nearly as bad as some of those cartoons they draw across the pacific... And there is outrage, not patronage. I don't think we are beyond hope here.
posted 1 year ago
Does this count as a answer to this question. The page came out on May 11th. Posting it here first before I requested a settlement because I am not sure if it suits the question. Site:
http://celebdirtylaundry.com/2008/05/11/this-is-getting-old-more-miley-my-space-pics-released/
posted 1 year ago
  20 tisha[Admin]
I'm not entirely sure - I can't find these pictures reported on any other mainstream settlement sources, so I would be inclined to say no.
posted 1 year ago
http://www.inquisitr.com/miley-cyrus-caught-again

I believe that this was prior to the question creation and therefore shouldn't be counted (but boy, there is no way I would bet yes on this question!)
posted 1 year ago
nigel won't bet because lesley won't let him!
posted 1 year ago
How long does it take for them to verify that the question is settled? Its been suspended since Monday morning and it is now Thursday morning. That is ridiculous!
posted 1 year ago
Lonewolf - Tisha is on holiday and I think this question just fell through the cracks. Thanks for bringing it up again.

I looked around and it looks like the pictures aren't actually new.. they were sent to her then boyfriend Nick Jonas, but they broke up several months ago. Please post if you have other info, I'm not a Miley expert!

I've asked for the market to be reopened.
posted 1 year ago
It doesn't matter if the pictures are supposedly old. The two sites that were sent for settlement show the day as being late may. That is when the pictures were discovered and put out to the news. This is one of the reasons this site won't make it, the questions are made by users and too vague for answers. The pictures are dated late may and they show her in her panties...enough said. The question should be settled!!!
posted 1 year ago
  26 ryanj[Admin]
Hi everyone,

I'm covering Tisha as he's on holiday so hopefully I can sort all this out. I mean naked teenagers and abused congressional pages are pretty much the same thing right?

Anyway. The photos that were released were old and from when Miley and Jonas were dating. So therefore the market doesn't settle yet. But knowing Miley I'm guessing we'll get a sex video by the end of June (This is so wrong, this damn category is going to corrupt my good soul). I've clarified the market stating that the photos released must be new.

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub Category Editor
posted 1 year ago
@Ryan - if Tisha is really a 'he' then dieseldog will be very disappointed! :)
posted 1 year ago
  28 ryanj[Admin]
Heh... Hubdub crushes who would've guessed.... Think I misspoke here. Tisha is a she so no reason for dieseldog to get disappointed.

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub Category Editor

PS Tish apologies!!
posted 1 year ago
is nigel going to invite us all over to see the sex video when lesley is not around ?
posted 1 year ago
Its awfully convenient to be able to change the question. This is really sad. I have talked to several people who no longer use this site because of questions like this. The photos were released AFTER the question was asked so the question should be settled. To be able to put extra words in the question to make it suit other people is very unfair. I guess if more pictures come out then the question will be changed to fit those as well.
posted 1 year ago
@lonewolf:
the question asks if she will bare her nude body AGAIN before her 16th birthday, not if new pictures previously taken will be released
posted 1 year ago
@justin - I'm really sorry you were frustrated. Sometimes its hard to think of all possible caveats in creating a market.. in this case, the question was trying to get at if Miley would learn her lesson after all the hubbub about the pictures. So the leak of pictures taken BEFORE the Vanity Fair shoot and the subsequent publicity doesn't really get to that.

That's my 'common sense' argument... for an argument on technicalities: the settlement details ask if she will POSE in any new pictures. All markets are active only from when they are created, therefore any pictures settling this market would have to have been taken after Apr 29th at 12:55 AM PST.

I'm sure everyone here has at LEAST one market whose settlement has driven them batty. But I always remind myself that (nearly) everyone has the best of intentions, the admins do their best to be fair and for every frustrating market there are many others that are unambigious and fun. I hope you won't let this question sour your hubdub experience, cause I have to tell you, it can sure be pretty fun.
posted 1 year ago
(i'm such a slow typer.. tocm's response wasn't even there when i started... sigh...)
posted 1 year ago
@jenni: slow, but much more eloquent, except you misspelled HubDub in the first paragraph! (wink,wink)

God knows i've lost thousands on technicalities, it teaches us to scrutinize new questions in the future, whether creating or wagering... besides, with stock market questions, money might as well grow on trees around here!!!!
posted 1 year ago
@jenni:
on a professional note, all the new "stuff" like digg and abc links and the graphics, really slow down the loading of pages since the new format was adopted... my internet connection is quite fast, but drags noticeably with all the new stuff.....maybe you, as a superhero, can speak to the hubdub gods and ask them if we can "opt out" of the new features on a per-feature basis, like the google and yahoo personal pages.... some of the new stuff is great, but do i really need to see digg and abc links EVERY TIME the pages load? and the tool for recent bets in the upper lefthand corner is redundant, as even more recent bets are logged in the predictions tab....and can't we get the "my open questions" sorting page defaulted, instead of the old one, i think we all like the sorter better than the old one... Thanks Superjenni! Wondertwin powers ACTIVATE; form of: a suggestion!!!
posted 1 year ago
@jenni...2nding TOCM's comments re the new sorter, much improved. V&H
posted 1 year ago
it's DEFINITELY the DIGG.COM stuff and the REDDIT.com stuff, it freezes up for like 10 seconds... take that garbage off the pages,,,, to what do we owe those people... i hate digg, i prefer stumbleupon... and i don't even want to know what reddit is.... it is SSSSSSSSSSSSLLLLLLLLLLLLLLOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW, so their code sux! get rid of it, let me hubdub with speed and agility.....
posted 1 year ago
@tocm - I haven't noticed the slowdowns and freezing you mention... are you experiencing it on this site only? How about other sites with reddit and dig?

Even though I don't use any of those sites, I liked that Hubdub was adding tools and functionality, so I'm hoping there's a fix for you without removing them.

is anyone else experiencing the freezing tocm mentioned?

posted 1 year ago
i haven't noticed it on any other site, but i get it EVERY TIME, and it's always digg, and half the time its digg and reddit!
posted 1 year ago
  40 gotmick
I've definitely noticed the digg/reddit problem lately and I have a very fast 8mb connection. It's very frustrating, sometimes 10-15 seconds until you can do anything with the page. I'd get rid of it until it's fixed.
posted 1 year ago
thanks, mick, didn't want to think my 2 gigs of ram was slow...
posted 1 year ago
ok, so i clicked on the phishing thing at the bottom, disabled the digg and reddit sites.... IT IS EVEN SLOWER!!!! get this crap off the page, please!!!!
posted 1 year ago
Um.. you guys may have slightly overestimated my superpowers. They're not quite that super... Feel free to send your comments in to the gods yourself! The contact link at the bottom is a good method or you can open a thread at getsatisfaction.

Wonderpowers: go to bed...
(See, really quite boring, sorry.)
posted 1 year ago
and to think: all this time , i've been PRAYING to ryan, when i could have just emailed him!!!!
posted 1 year ago
  45 dieseldog
@theonecalledmichael..i get the dig reddit deal also. it's usually like 5 second lag-delay and can be a pain in the butt.

@all HD'S..let me asure you tish is 100% woman. since are romance has been made public i'm sure she won't mind me telling you all...ouch! she just slapped me. guess i can't tell you the details.
posted 1 year ago
@dieseldog - haha... I won't believe it until I read it in a Major Mainstream News Source... I would be seriously jealous
posted 1 year ago
I can't imagine that this is such a huge topic in the Staates ^^
posted 1 year ago
  48 mork[Power User]
The current election campaign may be responsible for reducing proper coverage.
posted 1 year ago
...proper coverage does seem to be at the heart of the matter, yes...
posted 1 year ago
Again the question doesn't state new it just asks if she will be able to keep her clothes on until her 16th birthday. Two of us have tried to settle this question with websites showing new photos (new to the public) after the question was posted. So in the parameters of the question it should be settled. I understand what yall are saying, but the question didn't state that anywhere that they photos had to be new.
"This question will be settled as no if Miley Cyrus poses nude, semi-nude, topless (similar to Vanity Fair photos), displaying her bra or in her pants (clarification: that is underpants) before her 16th birthday on November 23rd."
I am not generally a complainer; you can look at my previous comments on other questions. But this question again should be settled.
So from I am hearing from yall, when photos come out we have to verify when the photos were actually taken so that we know if they was taken after the question was made. I will be searching for any new news of Miley posing in photos and trying to settle this question. I guess yalls job will be to re-write the question to fit the "yes" answers and search the actual date of photos being taken.
posted 1 year ago
implicit in this question is the FACT that the questioner is asking about a new event of Miley removing clothing or a portion thereof and taking a picture AFTER question creation date, even if it happened 1 second after the creation of the question... if her dad shows a picture to the press tomorrow (one previously unseen by the public) of miley as a 4 year old without a shirt on, would you then argue that this question should be settled?
posted 1 year ago
  52 mork[Power User]
The question asks if she will be able to keep her clothes on between the time this question was posed and her 16th birthday.
My opinion is that this question cannot be settled as yes if photos released are taken outside of this time frame.
posted 1 year ago
Note, the recent spat of photos are still old... as far as I can tell, there have not been any recently taken photos leaked. http://livenews.com.au/Articles/2008/07/14/Miley_Cyrus_in_third_wave_of_risky_pics

You know, I'm really starting to feel sorry for this girl. People hacking into her phone, email accounts... She's still only 15. That's pretty young to be hounded by this level of paparazzi and media attention.
posted 50 weeks ago
  54 philphan1
I bet on this a long time ago (in Miley's favor btw), but I have no idea when her b-day is...anyone know?
posted 46 weeks ago
November 23rd is her birthday.
posted 46 weeks ago
  56 philphan1
@jenniandboys: Thanx
posted 46 weeks ago
Strangely, she appears to be having her Sweet Sixteen party almost 2 months early... This market settles on her actual birthday though (Nov 23) not her party! (Hmm. wonders if she will get out of hand while celebrating ...?)

http://www.people.com/people/article/0,,20220593,00.html
posted 45 weeks ago
  58 frank2877
How hard can keeping your clothes on when there are cameras around be? OK, for some it's impossible :-)
posted 43 weeks ago

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