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Will Hannah Montana star Miley Cyrus manage to keep her clothes on until her 16th birthday?

Hubdub users say: No (57% chance )
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is No with a probability of 57% (unchanged in last 1 day)

Miley Cyrus, 15 year old star of Disney franchise Hannah Montana and role model to millions of teenage girls seems to have trouble keeping her clothes on. Recently she appeared 'topless' in Vanity Fair (http://tinyurl.com/5llhpn) and she has previous with photos of her baring her bra and posing in her panties recently surfacing (http://tinyurl.com/4me8bl). The blogosphere is now saying just stop it Miley. You can even join the campaign to save her before she goes fully Britney (http://www.stopitmiley.com/).
 
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Yes
43%
No
57%
Activity: H$42,955
Question suspends in 17 weeks
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: This question will be settled as no if Miley Cyrus poses nude, semi-nude, topless (similar to Vanity Fair photos), displaying her bra or in her pants (clarification: that is underpants) before her 16th birthday on November 23rd.

Suspend date: Sat 22nd Nov 11:59pm PST (17 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 40%

Action history:

Created Tue 29th Apr 1:55am PDT by nigeleccles[Admin]
Settlement requested Fri 16th May 7:39am PDT by lonewolfjustin: This was announced on May 11, 2008. It falls in the guide lines of the settle due to pants being dropped and showing underwear. http://celebdirtylaundry.com/2008/05/11/this-is-getting-old-more-miley-my-space-pics-released/
Suspended Sat 17th May 10:26am PDT by tisha[Admin]: Checking settlement request.
Unsuspended Sun 18th May 2:04pm PDT by ryanj[Admin]: The settlement request doesn't fit the settlement guidelines.
Settlement requested Sun 18th May 6:33pm PDT by lonewolfjustin: This was announced on May 11, 2008. It falls in the guide lines of the settle due to pants being dropped and showing underwear. The question says underpants and her underpants are showing. The article even talks about her showing her underpants. http://celebdirtylaundry.com/2008/05/11/this-is-getting-old-more-miley-my-space-pics-released/
Settlement requested Sat 24th May 8:49pm PDT by lonewolfjustin: Settle as "no" here is another site posted on May 23 showing herself in underwear and fully exposed belly. This is the second site I have supplied showing her showing her underwear which is cause for settlement. http://defamer.com/5010763/tarnished-tween-queen-miley-cyrus-caught-eating-her-clothes-off
Suspended Mon 26th May 7:52am PDT by tisha[Admin]: Checking settlement sources
Settlement requested Thu 29th May 7:42am PDT by jenniandboys[Power User]: As far as I can tell, although they are new to the public, the pictures themselves are old. They were sent to her then boyfriend Nick Jonas who I believe she broke up with back in Dec/Jan.

Pictures for Jonas:
http://community.livejournal.com/ohnotheydidnt/23771149.html#cutid1

No longer dating Jonas:
http://www.celebrity-gossip.net/celebrities/hollywood/miley-cyrus-and-nick-jonas-call-it-quits-202554/

Unsuspend please
Unsuspended Thu 29th May 12:03pm PDT by ryanj[Admin]: Photos must be new, these photos were taken before the first batch was released. Clarifying market with this.
Clarified Thu 29th May 12:03pm PDT by ryanj[Admin]: Photos must be new photos, the photos released were old, from when Jonas and Miley were dating.
Settlement requested Mon 14th Jul 9:11am PDT by lonewolfjustin: Got this from the news sites on hubdubs news links.
http://www.zeenews.com/articles.asp?aid=455253&sid=ent&ssid=1
Settlement requested Mon 14th Jul 11:14am PDT by jenniandboys[Power User]: Above settlement request is still for old photos: http://www.themoneytimes.com/articles/20080714/miley_cyrus_shower_snap_scandal-id-1029277.html

As far as I can tell, this market should NOT be settled yet.
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: This question will be settled as no if Miley Cyrus poses nude, semi-nude, topless (similar to Vanity Fair photos), displaying her bra or in her pants (clarification: that is underpants) before her 16th birthday on November 23rd.... read all

 
4 days ago
dingoh predicted Yes (H$50)
1 week ago
melmel07 predicted Yes (H$150)
2 weeks ago
lesley[Admin] predicted Yes (H$100)
2 weeks ago
nigeleccles[Admin] predicted Yes (H$50)
2 weeks ago
fellcolor predicted Yes (H$500)
3 weeks ago
mork[Power User] predicted Yes (H$100)
3 weeks ago
acpowers predicted Yes (H$100)
3 weeks ago
philphan1 predicted Yes (H$27)
3 weeks ago
lvnmom22 predicted Yes (H$100)
3 weeks ago
captainron predicted Yes (H$400)
  1 lesley[Admin]
Nigel - should I be worried....?!
posted 12 weeks ago
Not at all. I got Tom to research the question :-)
posted 12 weeks ago
  3 ryanj[Admin]
Hannah Montana is a sacrifice as Britney was so that the Human race may produce a great food harvest.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M9-2PP16LHA

Reptuse... Domenuse

The Harvest shall be good!!!!
posted 12 weeks ago
  4 owl1
This will be yes if she poses "in her pants" ??? What does that mean?
posted 12 weeks ago
That is in what us Brits call pants. Americans would call them underpants. Divided by a common language indeed. I'll update the settlement rules.
posted 12 weeks ago
  6 chull
Why does it say "will be settled as yes if Miley Cyrus poses nude," shouldn't that be settled as No. If she's doing nude pics, my guess is that she is out of her clothes and therefore did not manage to keep them on. Maybe that's different for our British friends, but in the US thats generally how it works. :)
posted 12 weeks ago
  7 diana
this is sooo not legal.
posted 12 weeks ago
  8 skipper[Power User]
yea its SOOOO not legal
I know for a fact that in the US of A you have to be 18 to legally have pics of u nude or topless anything under is illegal as
'child porn'

and let me just say before my dad (an average American says anything... shut up :P
posted 12 weeks ago
  9 owl1
Paparazzi don't really care about legal and I think there may be a different set of rules in Hollywierd we are not privy to. And I mean the American meaning of privy.
posted 12 weeks ago
  10 captainron
This question should NOT be settled if she is at the beach in a bathing suit (aka bikini.) Summer is coming up. That is the appropriate attire for the beach (unless she is posing for a professional photographer.)
Personally, I think she'll be fine. That Vanity Fair shoot really bothered her, especially regarding her younger fan base (who she is targeting!)
posted 12 weeks ago
  11 skipper[Power User]
owl1 - I don't care about legal, tbh ;)
and
captainron - bikini =/= (does not equal) bra or topless...
posted 12 weeks ago
Settlement Requested: she broke from tradition and showered this morning
posted 12 weeks ago
  13 owl1
I read it was a bath and she kept her scuba suit on so she's OK.
posted 12 weeks ago
@owl1 - lol
posted 12 weeks ago
  15 mrperfkt
lol @fingers
posted 12 weeks ago
  16 randburg
I can't pass this one -- I hope she keeps her birthday suit pressed and squeaky shiny...

Isn't she supposed to be PG-13? Or is this a maturing Barbie doll with plasic comb and hairbrush set?
posted 11 weeks ago
This is ridiculous! ... Just shows how perverse the world is getting ... I am NOT saying this is the first ever shot like this one for VF, but come on, a 15yr old in a sheet? NOW WHAT does that suggest other then "come over grown man and play naughty with me!" ... I am shocked, but mostly cause I am shocked by this, as it should no longer shock me where this world is headed!
I have not seen a single person yet say that this is utterly wrong for a 15yr old and what precedent it sets for other minors to become even more scanty then many already are!
It's sad how sinful man is. We've always been sinful true, but my goodness, soon it'll be a 12yr old cupping herself and THAT's IT and it'll be called "artistic" and will make front pages, that is appalling and it's absurd how far it's going these days.
David Hamilton pics these certainly are not, BUT that is the direction it is headed and we all know it!
posted 11 weeks ago
  18 ironman288
Well in Japan they call it "loli" and it's a huge market.. of course those are cartoons, and not real girls, but still.

Yeah, it's messed up lucid, but it isn't nearly as bad as some of those cartoons they draw across the pacific... And there is outrage, not patronage. I don't think we are beyond hope here.
posted 11 weeks ago
Does this count as a answer to this question. The page came out on May 11th. Posting it here first before I requested a settlement because I am not sure if it suits the question. Site:
http://celebdirtylaundry.com/2008/05/11/this-is-getting-old-more-miley-my-space-pics-released/
posted 10 weeks ago
  20 tisha[Admin]
I'm not entirely sure - I can't find these pictures reported on any other mainstream settlement sources, so I would be inclined to say no.
posted 9 weeks ago
http://www.inquisitr.com/miley-cyrus-caught-again

I believe that this was prior to the question creation and therefore shouldn't be counted (but boy, there is no way I would bet yes on this question!)
posted 8 weeks ago
nigel won't bet because lesley won't let him!
posted 8 weeks ago
How long does it take for them to verify that the question is settled? Its been suspended since Monday morning and it is now Thursday morning. That is ridiculous!
posted 7 weeks ago
Lonewolf - Tisha is on holiday and I think this question just fell through the cracks. Thanks for bringing it up again.

I looked around and it looks like the pictures aren't actually new.. they were sent to her then boyfriend Nick Jonas, but they broke up several months ago. Please post if you have other info, I'm not a Miley expert!

I've asked for the market to be reopened.
posted 7 weeks ago
It doesn't matter if the pictures are supposedly old. The two sites that were sent for settlement show the day as being late may. That is when the pictures were discovered and put out to the news. This is one of the reasons this site won't make it, the questions are made by users and too vague for answers. The pictures are dated late may and they show her in her panties...enough said. The question should be settled!!!
posted 7 weeks ago
  26 ryanj[Admin]
Hi everyone,

I'm covering Tisha as he's on holiday so hopefully I can sort all this out. I mean naked teenagers and abused congressional pages are pretty much the same thing right?

Anyway. The photos that were released were old and from when Miley and Jonas were dating. So therefore the market doesn't settle yet. But knowing Miley I'm guessing we'll get a sex video by the end of June (This is so wrong, this damn category is going to corrupt my good soul). I've clarified the market stating that the photos released must be new.

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub Category Editor
posted 7 weeks ago
@Ryan - if Tisha is really a 'he' then dieseldog will be very disappointed! :)
posted 7 weeks ago
  28 ryanj[Admin]
Heh... Hubdub crushes who would've guessed.... Think I misspoke here. Tisha is a she so no reason for dieseldog to get disappointed.

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub Category Editor

PS Tish apologies!!
posted 7 weeks ago
is nigel going to invite us all over to see the sex video when lesley is not around ?
posted 7 weeks ago
Its awfully convenient to be able to change the question. This is really sad. I have talked to several people who no longer use this site because of questions like this. The photos were released AFTER the question was asked so the question should be settled. To be able to put extra words in the question to make it suit other people is very unfair. I guess if more pictures come out then the question will be changed to fit those as well.
posted 7 weeks ago
@lonewolf:
the question asks if she will bare her nude body AGAIN before her 16th birthday, not if new pictures previously taken will be released
posted 7 weeks ago
@justin - I'm really sorry you were frustrated. Sometimes its hard to think of all possible caveats in creating a market.. in this case, the question was trying to get at if Miley would learn her lesson after all the hubbub about the pictures. So the leak of pictures taken BEFORE the Vanity Fair shoot and the subsequent publicity doesn't really get to that.

That's my 'common sense' argument... for an argument on technicalities: the settlement details ask if she will POSE in any new pictures. All markets are active only from when they are created, therefore any pictures settling this market would have to have been taken after Apr 29th at 12:55 AM PST.

I'm sure everyone here has at LEAST one market whose settlement has driven them batty. But I always remind myself that (nearly) everyone has the best of intentions, the admins do their best to be fair and for every frustrating market there are many others that are unambigious and fun. I hope you won't let this question sour your hubdub experience, cause I have to tell you, it can sure be pretty fun.
posted 7 weeks ago
(i'm such a slow typer.. tocm's response wasn't even there when i started... sigh...)
posted 7 weeks ago
@jenni: slow, but much more eloquent, except you misspelled HubDub in the first paragraph! (wink,wink)

God knows i've lost thousands on technicalities, it teaches us to scrutinize new questions in the future, whether creating or wagering... besides, with stock market questions, money might as well grow on trees around here!!!!
posted 7 weeks ago
@jenni:
on a professional note, all the new "stuff" like digg and abc links and the graphics, really slow down the loading of pages since the new format was adopted... my internet connection is quite fast, but drags noticeably with all the new stuff.....maybe you, as a superhero, can speak to the hubdub gods and ask them if we can "opt out" of the new features on a per-feature basis, like the google and yahoo personal pages.... some of the new stuff is great, but do i really need to see digg and abc links EVERY TIME the pages load? and the tool for recent bets in the upper lefthand corner is redundant, as even more recent bets are logged in the predictions tab....and can't we get the "my open questions" sorting page defaulted, instead of the old one, i think we all like the sorter better than the old one... Thanks Superjenni! Wondertwin powers ACTIVATE; form of: a suggestion!!!
posted 7 weeks ago
@jenni...2nding TOCM's comments re the new sorter, much improved. V&H
posted 7 weeks ago
it's DEFINITELY the DIGG.COM stuff and the REDDIT.com stuff, it freezes up for like 10 seconds... take that garbage off the pages,,,, to what do we owe those people... i hate digg, i prefer stumbleupon... and i don't even want to know what reddit is.... it is SSSSSSSSSSSSLLLLLLLLLLLLLLOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW, so their code sux! get rid of it, let me hubdub with speed and agility.....
posted 7 weeks ago
@tocm - I haven't noticed the slowdowns and freezing you mention... are you experiencing it on this site only? How about other sites with reddit and dig?

Even though I don't use any of those sites, I liked that Hubdub was adding tools and functionality, so I'm hoping there's a fix for you without removing them.

is anyone else experiencing the freezing tocm mentioned?

posted 7 weeks ago
i haven't noticed it on any other site, but i get it EVERY TIME, and it's always digg, and half the time its digg and reddit!
posted 7 weeks ago
  40 gotmick
I've definitely noticed the digg/reddit problem lately and I have a very fast 8mb connection. It's very frustrating, sometimes 10-15 seconds until you can do anything with the page. I'd get rid of it until it's fixed.
posted 7 weeks ago
thanks, mick, didn't want to think my 2 gigs of ram was slow...
posted 7 weeks ago
ok, so i clicked on the phishing thing at the bottom, disabled the digg and reddit sites.... IT IS EVEN SLOWER!!!! get this crap off the page, please!!!!
posted 7 weeks ago
Um.. you guys may have slightly overestimated my superpowers. They're not quite that super... Feel free to send your comments in to the gods yourself! The contact link at the bottom is a good method or you can open a thread at getsatisfaction.

Wonderpowers: go to bed...
(See, really quite boring, sorry.)
posted 7 weeks ago
and to think: all this time , i've been PRAYING to ryan, when i could have just emailed him!!!!
posted 7 weeks ago
  45 dieseldog
@theonecalledmichael..i get the dig reddit deal also. it's usually like 5 second lag-delay and can be a pain in the butt.

@all HD'S..let me asure you tish is 100% woman. since are romance has been made public i'm sure she won't mind me telling you all...ouch! she just slapped me. guess i can't tell you the details.
posted 7 weeks ago
@dieseldog - haha... I won't believe it until I read it in a Major Mainstream News Source... I would be seriously jealous
posted 7 weeks ago
I can't imagine that this is such a huge topic in the Staates ^^
posted 7 weeks ago
  48 mork[Power User]
The current election campaign may be responsible for reducing proper coverage.
posted 7 weeks ago
...proper coverage does seem to be at the heart of the matter, yes...
posted 7 weeks ago
Again the question doesn't state new it just asks if she will be able to keep her clothes on until her 16th birthday. Two of us have tried to settle this question with websites showing new photos (new to the public) after the question was posted. So in the parameters of the question it should be settled. I understand what yall are saying, but the question didn't state that anywhere that they photos had to be new.
"This question will be settled as no if Miley Cyrus poses nude, semi-nude, topless (similar to Vanity Fair photos), displaying her bra or in her pants (clarification: that is underpants) before her 16th birthday on November 23rd."
I am not generally a complainer; you can look at my previous comments on other questions. But this question again should be settled.
So from I am hearing from yall, when photos come out we have to verify when the photos were actually taken so that we know if they was taken after the question was made. I will be searching for any new news of Miley posing in photos and trying to settle this question. I guess yalls job will be to re-write the question to fit the "yes" answers and search the actual date of photos being taken.
posted 7 weeks ago
implicit in this question is the FACT that the questioner is asking about a new event of Miley removing clothing or a portion thereof and taking a picture AFTER question creation date, even if it happened 1 second after the creation of the question... if her dad shows a picture to the press tomorrow (one previously unseen by the public) of miley as a 4 year old without a shirt on, would you then argue that this question should be settled?
posted 7 weeks ago
  52 mork[Power User]
The question asks if she will be able to keep her clothes on between the time this question was posed and her 16th birthday.
My opinion is that this question cannot be settled as yes if photos released are taken outside of this time frame.
posted 7 weeks ago
Note, the recent spat of photos are still old... as far as I can tell, there have not been any recently taken photos leaked. http://livenews.com.au/Articles/2008/07/14/Miley_Cyrus_in_third_wave_of_risky_pics

You know, I'm really starting to feel sorry for this girl. People hacking into her phone, email accounts... She's still only 15. That's pretty young to be hounded by this level of paparazzi and media attention.
posted 1 week ago

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