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Will Heath Ledger rise from the dead on Sunday, February 10, 2008?

Voided

The likelihood estimates are not accurate (among other things!)


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Voided

Yes
32%
No
68%
Voided Mon 11th Feb 6:43am PST

Suspend date: None

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 95%

Action history:

Created Sat 9th Feb 3:18pm PST by jbolli
Settled as 'No' Mon 11th Feb 4:07am PST by diana: http://film.guardian.co.uk/news/story/0,,2255324,00.html
Previous action withdrawn Mon 11th Feb 6:42am PST by nigeleccles[Admin]: This was settled in error
Voided Mon 11th Feb 6:43am PST by nigeleccles[Admin]: The likelihood estimates are not accurate (among other things!)

Suspend date: None
more info...

 

Predictions (62)

62 predictions

42 weeks ago
pepe predicted No (H$20 at 66%)
42 weeks ago
monkeynacho predicted No (H$100 at 53%)
42 weeks ago
pepe predicted No (H$72 at 70%)
42 weeks ago
pepe predicted No (H$20 at 64%)
42 weeks ago
pepe predicted No (H$20 at 63%)
more

Comments (14)

scam question.
posted 42 weeks ago
  2 steph
I disagree. This is a valid question. There is also a question about Jesus Christ rising from the dead that has been mentioned in several of the Hubdub media stories, and mentioned on the major network news programs.

I'm not advocating that players start posting stories about deceased celebrities rising from the dead, but I think that this is a valid question.

= )
posted 42 weeks ago
  3 golwar
The Jesus Christ question started with 1% for a ressurection within this year. Heath started with more than 80% for this single day ? So yes, this question is totally *beep*
*flagged*
posted 42 weeks ago
  4 steph
Oh, good point.
posted 42 weeks ago
  5 jbolli
I think some of you need to invest your Hubdub "dollars" in a sense of humor.
posted 42 weeks ago
  6 huffmanm
What's funny about this? You're practically cheating to get more hubdub dollars. That's not funny. That's just very, very sad.
posted 42 weeks ago
  7 gradgrind
But the person who creates the question can't really benefit, well at least not to the same degree as those who choose to wager on it.
posted 42 weeks ago
  8 mork[Power User]
90% chance of rising from the dead.
Questions like this are only used as a bank for the rich and have the potential for seriously altering the results of the game.
posted 42 weeks ago
  9 golwar
OMG, this wasn't voided ? Hahahahaha, hell do those guys know how easy they make it to cheat this way ?
posted 42 weeks ago
  10 jbolli
Wow you guys all take this waaaay too seriously. You realize this isn't real money, right? And how an I cheating? I can't even wager on my own question for 12 hours?
posted 42 weeks ago
  11 jbolli
...at which point in any rational universe the line would shift to 99% "NO."

Need to add an edit function to comments here.
posted 42 weeks ago
  12 cct33
totally agree that this needed to be voided! (although I would have earned easy Hub$)
posted 42 weeks ago
  13 mork[Power User]
jbolli;
Are you unable to acknowledge the points made or respond to the questions posed in these comments rationally?

I think I can speak for the rest of us when I assure you that we do not take you "waaaay too serious".

In fact we don't take you seriously at all.

thought you should know.

posted 41 weeks ago
  14 jbolli
Fairly sure I responded to all the points made, Mork. If you haven't noticed, the BETS ultimately determine the odds here, not the question maker. I'd go so far as to say the original line is nearly irrelevant, in a complete free-market system.

The larger issue, of course, is whether this site will continue to be interesting a few months from now, will it continue to allow humorous, creative, offbeat questions, or will it devolve into nothing but "will (insert country)'s stock market rise today" or "will (home team) win tonight" wagers.

This is a beta Mork. The boundaries need to be pushed now.

posted 41 weeks ago

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