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Will Heath Ledger win an Oscar in 2009 for his role as the Joker in Dark Knight?

Settled as Yes

Background: The Dark Knight is looking to be this summer's blockbuster movie. Already movie critics are talking up its Oscar potential including the possibility that Heath Ledger could win a posthumous Oscar. However MSNBC reports:

But Oscar watchers and veteran critics say the joke may be on fans creating mostly Internet-based buzz because an Academy Award for the Australian actor, who died of an accidental drug overdose in January, would be a rare event.

Only one actor has won an Oscar after death, Peter Finch for 1976's Network. Dark Knight is the type of comic book, action adventure that Oscar voters generally do not favor and there are many movies to see later this year, the experts said.


Whether the Dark Knight bucks the trend remains to be seen.

Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Yes
95%
No
5%
Settled as Yes on Sun 22nd Feb 7:22pm PST

Suspend date: Sun 22nd Feb 5:30pm PST
Settlement date: Sun 22nd Feb 7:22pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 22nd Feb 5:30pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

Created Sat 26th Apr 2008 1:03pm PST by ryanb37
Changed Suspend date Sat 27th Dec 2008 11:42am PST by jenniandboys[Admin]: was: "2009-01-02 23:59:00"
Suspended Wed 21st Jan 11:59pm PST : Suspend date reached
Changed Suspend date Thu 22nd Jan 3:23pm PST by jenniandboys[Admin]: was: "2009-01-21 23:59:00"
Unsuspended Thu 22nd Jan 3:24pm PST by jenniandboys[Admin]: Heath was nominated today for Best Supporting Actor. The market will remain open until the Oscar awards ceremony on the 22nd of Feb.
Suspended Sun 22nd Feb 5:30pm PST : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Sun 22nd Feb 7:11pm PST by jake: Settle as yes.

http://www.imdb.com/
Settlement requested Sun 22nd Feb 7:16pm PST by coolkraft: Ledger wins oscar for best supporting actor
Settled as 'Yes' Sun 22nd Feb 7:22pm PST by jenniandboys[Admin]

Suspend date: Sun 22nd Feb 5:30pm PST
Settlement date: Sun 22nd Feb 7:22pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Sun 22nd Feb 5:30pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details

 

Predictions (1564)

38 weeks ago
maissey predicted Yes (H$120 at 96%)
38 weeks ago
curios predicted Yes (H$10,000 at 94%)
38 weeks ago
frogchop predicted No (H$20 at 7%)
38 weeks ago
pippi1500 predicted No (H$100 at 7%)
38 weeks ago
robspectre predicted No (H$20 at 7%)

Comments (22)

He'll probably win too, these things are all politics anyways.
posted 1 year ago
  2 coolkraft
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25708011/

depends on how u look at it.....
posted 1 year ago
Well now that I've seen the movie, I've got to say I'm flopping completely. The only way he DOESNT win is if its rigged... clearly the best performance of the year, possibly ever.
posted 1 year ago
  4 dragon01
The Academy may look at it favourably in view of his being snubbed on Brokeback Mountain, also a fine performance.
posted 51 weeks ago
  5 ryanj
To be honest I didn't really like the film because it just dragged on for too long. Two face should have been a separate movie!!!! Either way though Heath made the movie, even if I found the plot to drawn out, his acting was excellent.
posted 51 weeks ago
  6 donal
depends on what he is nominated for, lead or support
posted 46 weeks ago
If he didnt get one for, arguably one of his best films, Brokeback Mountin, why not for The Dark Knight.
posted 46 weeks ago
  8 lolsiwin
Obviously he would receive best supporting actor, as BATMAN is the lead...
posted 45 weeks ago
  9 ryanb37
well he won the critics choice and the peoples choice and another one my money is on yes
posted 45 weeks ago
Yes quite a bit of my money is on yes as well! He is a definite front-runner for this one. Many Oscar punters consider him a near lock for the Oscar.
posted 45 weeks ago
  11 chris[Admin]
I'm confused. Far from being the best actor of the year he wasn't even the best actor in this film. I mean he wasn't as bad as he was in the finger-tappingly tedious Brokeback Mountain, where his hopeless phoned-in performance made an already lame plot into gripping game of seeing whether I could stay watching til the end without dying of boredome. But really, you can't give the man an oscar for trying to do a half-hearted copy of Jack Nicholson but giving up halfway through. They should give an oscar to John Malkovich for how good he *would* have been if he'd been cast in the part
posted 45 weeks ago
  12 ryanb37
Critics choice peoples choice and golden globe Hes a lock
posted 44 weeks ago
Oscars like living actors and actresses... They are the ones who bring in the money from sponsors... For this reason, I am voting no on this one.
posted 44 weeks ago
  14 coolkraft
have to disagree...there are exceptions and I think Heath Ledger will be another one.
posted 44 weeks ago
  15 triciebird
After watching Heath's performance over again at home, I can't see him not winning the oscar? It was a genuinely haunting performance...
posted 44 weeks ago
  16 bayoubear[Admin]
Did his death make more haunting?
Would he be receiving this amount of interest and buildup if not for his real life demise?
posted 43 weeks ago
@bayou - Yes, absolutely he would be a very strong contender even without his death. He was receiving serious Oscar buzz during the filming of the movie, and that's one of the main reasons that the entire advertising campaign centered around his character. But I do think the tragedy of his death has moved him from a front runner to a near lock..
posted 43 weeks ago
jenniandboys... You have a lot riding on this... Best of luck!!!
posted 42 weeks ago
Hey, thanks for all the cross posts, pitched. If I get a chance later I'll try to throw those into the backgrounds to make them even easier to find. You can also always use the tags on the right "heath ledger" should pull all the ledger related markets.
posted 40 weeks ago
  21 coolkraft
Ledger wins
posted 38 weeks ago
i just got around to seeing this flick last week and i absolutely loved ledger as the joker. he had some seriously funny lines.
posted 38 weeks ago

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