Will Hillary Clinton make public the tax returns she and Bill have filed during the past four years before May 1, 2008?

Received a flag stating that the odds for this market were "unsubstantiated." This was due to the upcoming Penn. primary and the releases of Obama's tax records.The initial odds are fair. Clinton has continued to say she won't release her returns until she wins, so 25% seems fair.

Ryan

Hubdub US Politics Content Editor

This does not match my information.

"During a recent MSNBC debate, Senator Clinton was asked if she would release her tax returns. She answered, 'Well, I will do it as others have done it, upon becoming the nominee or even earlier.' But the very next day, her campaign backtracked, saying, 'As is customary, as the Democratic nominee Sen. Clinton will release her tax information in April at tax time.'

<http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/02/29/717817.aspx>

There are numerous major sources quoting Clinton as intending to release her tax returns in April.

I agree with you newswrangler, I have heard that she will be releasing her information by April 15th, especially since Obama released all his information yesterday.

I hadn't seen that news but looking at the positions on this market, it doesn't seem like their is any gaming activity in the market. Thanks for the info though, can't believe I hadn't known here campaign had released a statement saying she would release them at some point.

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor

"it doesn't seem like their is any gaming activity in the market."

Earlier you said "...so 25% seems fair. "

When the starting odds are way off, as they are in this question, what do you call that, if not gaming?

From the news tab:
"The Clinton camp said she will release her 2006 returns in the days leading to the April 22 Pennsylvania primary but has not committed to disclosing any of the other returns filed after President Clinton’s departure from the White House."

This question is asking for the last four years, not just 2006. I think the odds are fine. (In fact I bet no at 70% and still think it was a good deal)

"Obama has criticized Clinton for failing to release her tax returns since the end of her husband's White House tenure in 2001.

Clinton says she hopes to put out the returns 'within the next week.'

The Obama camp says his 2007 tax return will be released by tax day on April 15th."

-- Associated Press, Mar 26 2008 1:24AM

I'm with jennieandboys I just bet no at 65% and was surprised to see it so low.

This question is playing HOPSCOTCH THROUGH THE LANDMINES...be warned...

The other Hillary tax questions have been straightforward and easy to settle. NOT THIS ONE. Former questions only dealt with a 2007 tax return. This questions wants FOUR YEARS of returns. What if she provides one, or two? The question will be settled as NO. Did she file a joint return or a single return? This question requires returns from BOTH Hillary and Bill. Only one will be settled as NO. What if we have four years from Hillary and one year from Bill? Again, settled as NO. Or we have four years from Bill and the current year from Hillary? Settled as NO.

Will "released" by treated like the hubdub word "resign"? Date of noted release versus effective release. Released today, available for the press on May 2nd? Settled as NO or YES?

After thinking about this, I cashed out completely on this one. I'm not feeling masochistic. If I was going to stay in this prediction, almost all answers seem to lead to NO.

Third paragraph: Will "released" BE treated like the hubdub word "resign"...(sorry).

randburg- "almost all answers seem to lead to NO." Exactly, now you understand all things Clinton.

So everyone is clear Bill and Hillary's tax returns for the past four years must be released. As long as those tax returns in whatever form (joint) are released the market is settled as a yes. Does anyone see the market differently?

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor

no thats why i jumped on no at 65%... there is no way the Clinton's will release 4 years of tax returns, they made WAY too much money over that period.

That's my opinion anyhow.

Ugh... Seems that the prediction cut off date didn't work. They were released at around 4 EST, but somehow it hasn't registered. So I'm sure there are lucky hubdubers out there with grin on their face. Sorry about this guys, try to usually cut off predictions, doesn't seem to have worked this time.

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor

O Ye of little faith.......laughing all the way to the Hubdub bank :)

I believe this settled too soon as they only released 3 of the last 4 years... they filed for an extension and say they will release 2007 later.

The question asked for the taxes filed for the past 4 years and she released the last 30. 2007's taxes aren't even due yet, haven't been filed and weren't really part of the controversy. So I think it settled correctly... (and boy and I happy that I cashed out this morning!!)

I think 2007 is the whole controversy and one that will be most damaging... possibly even income from Arab sources.
http://newsbusters.org/blogs/mark-finkelstein/2008/04/05/gentle-snow-clintons-failure-file-2007-return-shows-theyre-human

Hi fingers,

It seems the settlement source I used didn't explain the entire deviation regarding 2007's returns. If in the end (by April 15th) the market requires resettlement I will resettle. My bad here I should have read the fine lines here but I was to quick to settle.

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor

Thank you Ryan