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Will Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama have the most PLEDGED delegates going into the convention?

Settled as Barack Obama

As per the current political climate, Obama will have the most pledged delegates going into the convention

Background:

Will Obama maintain his lead in pledged delegates?


Settlement details: As reported by CNN. The total should include any delegates awarded to Florida or Michigan by DNC agreement with the states and/or new contests.

 
Forecast history, %
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Settled

Hillary Clinton
3%
Barack Obama
97%
Activity: H$299,102
Settled as Barack Obama on Wed 21st May 4:54am PDT

Suspend date: Sat 2nd Aug 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Wed 21st May 4:54am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 21st May 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Hillary Clinton: 25%, Barack Obama: 75%

Action history:

Created Wed 12th Mar 8:02pm PDT by triathematician
Settlement requested Tue 20th May 8:03pm PDT by destry[Admin]: Obama now has more pledged delegates than she can achieve.
Settled as 'Barack Obama' Wed 21st May 4:54am PDT by ryanj[Admin]: As per the current political climate, Obama will have the most pledged delegates going into the convention

Suspend date: Sat 2nd Aug 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Wed 21st May 4:54am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 21st May 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (306)

306 predictions

27 weeks ago
sylvia predicted Barack Obama (H$100 at 97%)
27 weeks ago
killyin predicted Barack Obama (H$100 at 93%)
27 weeks ago
jhuckabee predicted Barack Obama (H$100 at 93%)
28 weeks ago
redskins predicted Barack Obama (H$50 at 96%)
28 weeks ago
tangledweb predicted Barack Obama (H$100 at 93%)
more

Comments (8)

  2 destry[Admin]
I have one small question about this market, it says going into the convention, does that include the michigan and florida delegates, if it's decided at the convention how to seat them?
posted 36 weeks ago
Settlement rules: As reported by CNN. The total should include any delegates awarded to Florida or Michigan by DNC agreement with the states and/or new contests.
posted 36 weeks ago
So I would think it would have to be decided BEFORE the convention. If its decided by the rules committee AT the convention, I say they don't count. Any other intrepertations?
posted 36 weeks ago
  5 rohan
Why is this s high in favour of Obama?
posted 35 weeks ago
Because he has a pretty commanding lead right now and its virtually impossible for her to pass him in pledged delegates before the convention.
posted 35 weeks ago
  7 rohan
okay...
posted 35 weeks ago
  8 owl1
Virtually? How about completely. She should go bye-bye!
posted 31 weeks ago

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