Created Wed 12th Mar 8:02pm PDT by

triathematician

All questions » Politics » US Election 2008 »

Will Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama have the most PLEDGED delegates going into the convention?

Settled as Barack Obama

As per the current political climate, Obama will have the most pledged delegates going into the convention

Background:

Will Obama maintain his lead in pledged delegates?

Forecast history, %

Zoom in

Settled

Hillary Clinton

Barack Obama

97%

Activity: H$299,102

Settled as Barack Obama on Wed 21st May 4:54am PDT

Settlement details: As reported by CNN. The total should include any delegates awarded to Florida or Michigan by DNC agreement with the states and/or new contests.

Suspend date: Sat 2nd Aug 12:59am PDT

Settlement date: Wed 21st May 4:54am PDT

Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Wed 21st May 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Hillary Clinton: 25%, Barack Obama: 75%

Action history:

Created Wed 12th Mar 8:02pm PDT by

triathematician

Settlement requested Tue 20th May 8:03pm PDT by

destry [Admin]

: Obama now has more pledged delegates than she can achieve.

Settled as 'Barack Obama' Wed 21st May 4:54am PDT by

ryanj

: As per the current political climate, Obama will have the most pledged delegates going into the convention

read less

Settlement details: As reported by CNN. The total should include any delegates awarded to Florida or Michigan by DNC agreement with the states and/or new contests.... read all

Predictions (306)

306 predictions

15 weeks ago

sylvia predicted Barack Obama (H$100 at 97%)

15 weeks ago

killyin predicted Barack Obama (H$100 at 93%)

15 weeks ago

jhuckabee predicted Barack Obama (H$100 at 93%)

15 weeks ago

redskins predicted Barack Obama (H$50 at 96%)

15 weeks ago

tangledweb predicted Barack Obama (H$100 at 93%)

Comments (8)

triathematician

See http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Will_the_candidate_going_into_the_convention_with_the_most_PLEDGED_delegates_win_the_nomination_Democrat_4368/view for a follow-up question.

posted 24 weeks ago

destry [Admin]

I have one small question about this market, it says going into the convention, does that include the michigan and florida delegates, if it's decided at the convention how to seat them?

posted 23 weeks ago

jenniandboys [Admin]

Settlement rules: As reported by CNN. The total should include any delegates awarded to Florida or Michigan by DNC agreement with the states and/or new contests.

posted 23 weeks ago

jenniandboys [Admin]

So I would think it would have to be decided BEFORE the convention. If its decided by the rules committee AT the convention, I say they don't count. Any other intrepertations?

posted 23 weeks ago