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Will Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama have the most PLEDGED delegates going into the convention?

Settled as Barack Obama

As per the current political climate, Obama will have the most pledged delegates going into the convention

Background:

Background: Will Obama maintain his lead in pledged delegates?

Settlement details:As reported by CNN. The total should include any delegates awarded to Florida or Michigan by DNC agreement with the states and/or new contests.

 
Forecast history %
Hillary Clinton
3%
Barack Obama
97%
Settled as Barack Obama on Wed 21st May 2008 3:54am PST

Suspend date: Fri 1st Aug 2008 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Wed 21st May 2008 3:54am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 20th May 2008 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Hillary Clinton: 25%, Barack Obama: 75%

Action history:

Created Wed 12th Mar 2008 7:02pm PST by triathematician
Settlement requested Tue 20th May 2008 7:03pm PST by destry[Admin]: Obama now has more pledged delegates than she can achieve.
Settled as 'Barack Obama' Wed 21st May 2008 3:54am PST by ryanj: As per the current political climate, Obama will have the most pledged delegates going into the convention

Suspend date: Fri 1st Aug 2008 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Wed 21st May 2008 3:54am PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 20th May 2008 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details

 

Predictions (306)

1 year ago
sylvia predicted Barack Obama (H$100 at 97%)
1 year ago
killyin predicted Barack Obama (H$100 at 93%)
1 year ago
jhuckabee predicted Barack Obama (H$100 at 93%)
1 year ago
redskins predicted Barack Obama (H$50 at 96%)
1 year ago
tangledweb predicted Barack Obama (H$100 at 93%)

Comments (8)

  2 destry[Admin]
I have one small question about this market, it says going into the convention, does that include the michigan and florida delegates, if it's decided at the convention how to seat them?
posted 2 years ago
Settlement rules: As reported by CNN. The total should include any delegates awarded to Florida or Michigan by DNC agreement with the states and/or new contests.
posted 1 year ago
So I would think it would have to be decided BEFORE the convention. If its decided by the rules committee AT the convention, I say they don't count. Any other intrepertations?
posted 1 year ago
  5 rohan
Why is this s high in favour of Obama?
posted 1 year ago
Because he has a pretty commanding lead right now and its virtually impossible for her to pass him in pledged delegates before the convention.
posted 1 year ago
  7 rohan
okay...
posted 1 year ago
  8 owl1
Virtually? How about completely. She should go bye-bye!
posted 1 year ago

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