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Will Hillary Clinton push the 'Fear Mongering' button in another campaign commercial?

Voided

I think this market is a little to "controversial" and opinionated to settle. If we relied on a pundit, we'd have another pundit out there saying something completely opposite, even if we had multiple sources. I'm gonna void this because of that. I'd like to ask questions similar to this but they are to subjective to settle.

Background:

As per the famous '3 a.m. Phone Call'; a tried and tested formula.

'Clinton's phone ad got more free publicity than its sponsors could have bought': http://tinyurl.com/277wpm

(The 'campaign' in the subject header being the current one for the Democratic Presidential Nomination..)


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Failing that, Ryan gets to decide.

 
Forecast history, %
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Voided

Yes
50%
No
50%
Voided Mon 31st Mar 8:46am PDT

Suspend date: None

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

Created Sat 29th Mar 9:18pm PDT by deelilley
Suspended Sun 30th Mar 9:27am PDT by ryanj[Admin]: I was about to void it saying that it could not be settled by a source. But then I read the settlement details: "As reported by a major mainstream news source. Failing that, Ryan gets to decide." I'm not sure I like the idea of having myself decide. It is easy enough to see if a ad is fear mongering, but that is kind of a very thin tight rope to walk. One way to have it settle is by stating that a specific settlement source or pundit has to say that the campaign commercial is an attempt at fear mongering. How does that sound?

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor
Voided Mon 31st Mar 8:46am PDT by ryanj[Admin]: I think this market is a little to "controversial" and opinionated to settle. If we relied on a pundit, we'd have another pundit out there saying something completely opposite, even if we had multiple sources. I'm gonna void this because of that. I'd like to ask questions similar to this but they are to subjective to settle.

Suspend date: None
more info...

 

Predictions (2)

2 predictions

35 weeks ago
jenniandboys[Admin] predicted Yes (H$1 at 55%)
35 weeks ago
theonecalledmichael predicted Yes (H$1,000 at 52%)

Comments (5)

  1 ryanj[Admin]
I was about to void it saying that it could not be settled by a source. But then I read the settlement details: "As reported by a major mainstream news source. Failing that, Ryan gets to decide." I'm not sure I like the idea of having myself decide. It is easy enough to see if a ad is fear mongering, but that is kind of a very thin tight rope to walk. One way to have it settle is by stating that a specific settlement source or pundit has to say that the campaign commercial is an attempt at fear mongering. How does that sound?

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor
posted 35 weeks ago
fine with me, but how specific a source? can we have multiple sources?
posted 35 weeks ago
I don't know ryanj.
If a pundit says the words 'fear-mongering', all that is, is an opinion.
There is NO 'fear-mongering' "button" to push. This question needs to be voided.
posted 35 weeks ago
  4 deelilley
I think all advertising pushes buttons of some sort, else it wouldn't be effective.
Ryan, I apologize for naming you, but I have faith that it *would* be easy enough for you to see if it happens. Surely it doesn't need to be a Duct Tape and Plastic Orange Alert.
'Multiple sources' works for me -)
posted 35 weeks ago
  5 ryanj[Admin]
Hey everyone,

I think this market is a little to "controversial" and opinionated to settle. If we relied on a pundit, we'd have another pundit out there saying something completely opposite, even if we had multiple sources. I'm gonna void this because of that. I'd like to ask questions similar to this but they are to subjective to settle.

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor
posted 35 weeks ago

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