Will Hillary Clinton regain the lead in the popular vote by the convention?

Can you clarify which count this is? Includes MI/FL, etc.?

If by the convention MI/FL are being counted by the DNC then yes. But that issue is up in the air, as it might be that only the delegates are counted. But, yes MI/FL are counted if the DNC counts them.

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor

My understanding of the settlement details is that Clinton needs only to regain the popular vote lead, not necessarily hold onto it, prior to the convention for this question to settle as "YES". Is that correct?

Yeah it isn't asking if she can hold it only if she can actually regain it.

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor

This posting argues "No", at least if you count caucuses in that tally.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/shawn-christensen/dont-be-fooled-obama-is-a_b_96118.html

Why did this settle?

By comment #2 above clarification, it should have been settled ONLY if the MI popular votes were counted by the DNC... But that issue is up in the air, as it might be that only the delegates are counted. The popular votes WERE NOT counted, as the DNC assigned delegates somewhat arbitrarily and only loosely based on the popular vote. Also, the DNC does not have any official count of the popular vote, so anything that comes out is simply an estimate.

In my view, this should either be voided or left open for tomorrow's results!

This is a joke. There are 3 different popular vote totals on the page this link sends you to. Clinton does not lead in the top one on the page. Show me anywhere else in the press where they are saying Clinton regained the popular vote. It would be a huge news story. This should not have been settled. They are not assigning the delegates for Michigan based upon popular vote. The DNC did not count the popular vote and assign delegates based upon it. They created an arbitrary ratio. Obama wasn't even on the ballot in Michigan and they gave him delegates. Comment #2 by Ryanj should not have allowed this to be settled.

Only Clinton and this website believes she won the popular vote. Read some of the following links from sources such as Newsweek that dispute this popular vote claim:

http://blog.newsweek.com/blogs/stumper/archive/2008/06/02/clinton-s-popular-vote-claim-close-but-no-cigar.aspx
http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/politicalinsider/2008/06/clintons-popular-vote-claim-st.html

They only counted Michigan delegates at half strength and hubdub is going to count popular vote as full. This goes against comment #2. I wagered based on comment #2.

Only Clinton and hubdub believes she won the popular vote. Read some of the following links from sources such as Newsweek that dispute this popular vote claim:

http://blog.newsweek.com/blogs/stumper/archive/2008/06/02/clinton-s-popular-vote-claim-close-but-no-cigar.aspx
http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/politicalinsider/2008/06/clintons-popular-vote-claim-st.html

They only counted Michigan delegates at half strength and hubdub is going to count popular vote as full. This goes against comment #2. I wagered based on comment #2.

This is a joke. There are 3 different popular vote totals on the page the settlement link sends you to. Clinton does not lead in the top one on the page. Show me anywhere else in the press where they are saying Clinton really regained the popular vote. It would be a huge news story. This should not have been settled. They are not assigning the delegates for Michigan based upon popular vote. The DNC did not count the popular vote and assign delegates based upon it. They created an arbitrary ratio. Obama wasn't even on the ballot in Michigan and they gave him delegates. Comment #2 by Ryanj should not have allowed this to be settled

Seems to be some confusion with the market. The problem is we listed the settlement source as what would settle the market and the settlement source is confusing in it's own sense. After a second more detailed look at it I'll admit I'm baffled by exactly what RCP is saying the total is. Anyway I think I'm gonna resettle so both options win.

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub Category Editor

Another market about "will the vote in Michigan and Florida be counted?", settled incorrectly ...

A user writes, "This should not have been settled. They are not assigning the delegates for Michigan based upon popular vote. The DNC did not count the popular vote and assign delegates based upon it. They created an arbitrary ratio. Obama wasn't even on the ballot in Michigan and they gave him delegates. Comment #2 by Ryanj should not have allowed this to be settled."

Ryan says, "After a second more detailed look at it I'll admit I'm baffled ... "

Say it isn't so.

[ It's so.]

why didn't you settle "will the vote in Michigan and Florida be counted?" so everbody won?

Hi dieseldog,

Over the last day I got caught up in some other stuff, but I've now resettled so It should all be ok now...

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub Category Editor