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Will Hillary Clinton regain the lead in the popular vote by the convention?

Settled as No

Currently many Pundits as well as Clinton supporters are saying Clinton needs to regain the lead in the popular vote to become a viable candidate. Will she be able to do it?
 
Forecast history, %
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Settled

Yes
12%
No
88%
Activity: H$35,970
Settled as No on Wed 4th Jun 8:32am PDT
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html

Suspend date: Wed 11th Jun 12:59am PDT

Settlement date: Wed 4th Jun 8:32am PDT

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 25%

Action history:

Created Thu 3rd Apr 1pm PDT by ryanj[Admin]
Edited Thu 3rd Apr 1:10pm PDT by ryanj[Admin]
Settlement requested Mon 2nd Jun 1:25am PDT by destry[Admin]: Please settle. The DNC is allowing florida and michigan to have a say, so as you can see on the website that is used for settlement she has the lead by 300,000+.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html
Suspended Mon 2nd Jun 1:28am PDT by destry[Admin]: Flagged by super user: Suspended pending review of settlement links.
Previous action withdrawn Mon 2nd Jun 7:09pm PDT by ryanj[Admin]
Suspended Mon 2nd Jun 7:09pm PDT by ryanj[Admin]
Settled as 'No' Wed 4th Jun 8:32am PDT by ryanj[Admin]
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html... read all

 

Predictions (92)

92 predictions

12 weeks ago
schenz predicted Yes (H$50 at 12%)
13 weeks ago
roxana predicted Yes (H$20 at 11%)
13 weeks ago
roxana predicted Yes (H$100 at 10%)
13 weeks ago
monkiss predicted Yes (H$100 at 9%)
13 weeks ago
cscheid predicted No (H$100 at 91%)
more

Comments (14)

Can you clarify which count this is? Includes MI/FL, etc.?
posted 21 weeks ago
  2 ryanj[Admin]
If by the convention MI/FL are being counted by the DNC then yes. But that issue is up in the air, as it might be that only the delegates are counted. But, yes MI/FL are counted if the DNC counts them.

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor
posted 21 weeks ago
  3 markov
My understanding of the settlement details is that Clinton needs only to regain the popular vote lead, not necessarily hold onto it, prior to the convention for this question to settle as "YES". Is that correct?
posted 20 weeks ago
  4 ryanj[Admin]
Yeah it isn't asking if she can hold it only if she can actually regain it.

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor
posted 20 weeks ago
This posting argues "No", at least if you count caucuses in that tally.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/shawn-christensen/dont-be-fooled-obama-is-a_b_96118.html
posted 20 weeks ago
Why did this settle?

By comment #2 above clarification, it should have been settled ONLY if the MI popular votes were counted by the DNC... But that issue is up in the air, as it might be that only the delegates are counted. The popular votes WERE NOT counted, as the DNC assigned delegates somewhat arbitrarily and only loosely based on the popular vote. Also, the DNC does not have any official count of the popular vote, so anything that comes out is simply an estimate.

In my view, this should either be voided or left open for tomorrow's results!
posted 12 weeks ago
  7 epicur
This is a joke. There are 3 different popular vote totals on the page this link sends you to. Clinton does not lead in the top one on the page. Show me anywhere else in the press where they are saying Clinton regained the popular vote. It would be a huge news story. This should not have been settled. They are not assigning the delegates for Michigan based upon popular vote. The DNC did not count the popular vote and assign delegates based upon it. They created an arbitrary ratio. Obama wasn't even on the ballot in Michigan and they gave him delegates. Comment #2 by Ryanj should not have allowed this to be settled.
posted 12 weeks ago
  8 epicur
Only Clinton and this website believes she won the popular vote. Read some of the following links from sources such as Newsweek that dispute this popular vote claim:

http://blog.newsweek.com/blogs/stumper/archive/2008/06/02/clinton-s-popular-vote-claim-close-but-no-cigar.aspx
http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/politicalinsider/2008/06/clintons-popular-vote-claim-st.html

They only counted Michigan delegates at half strength and hubdub is going to count popular vote as full. This goes against comment #2. I wagered based on comment #2.

posted 12 weeks ago
  9 epicur
Only Clinton and hubdub believes she won the popular vote. Read some of the following links from sources such as Newsweek that dispute this popular vote claim:

http://blog.newsweek.com/blogs/stumper/archive/2008/06/02/clinton-s-popular-vote-claim-close-but-no-cigar.aspx
http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/politicalinsider/2008/06/clintons-popular-vote-claim-st.html

They only counted Michigan delegates at half strength and hubdub is going to count popular vote as full. This goes against comment #2. I wagered based on comment #2.
posted 12 weeks ago
  10 epicur
This is a joke. There are 3 different popular vote totals on the page the settlement link sends you to. Clinton does not lead in the top one on the page. Show me anywhere else in the press where they are saying Clinton really regained the popular vote. It would be a huge news story. This should not have been settled. They are not assigning the delegates for Michigan based upon popular vote. The DNC did not count the popular vote and assign delegates based upon it. They created an arbitrary ratio. Obama wasn't even on the ballot in Michigan and they gave him delegates. Comment #2 by Ryanj should not have allowed this to be settled
posted 12 weeks ago
  11 ryanj[Admin]
Seems to be some confusion with the market. The problem is we listed the settlement source as what would settle the market and the settlement source is confusing in it's own sense. After a second more detailed look at it I'll admit I'm baffled by exactly what RCP is saying the total is. Anyway I think I'm gonna resettle so both options win.

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub Category Editor
posted 12 weeks ago
Another market about "will the vote in Michigan and Florida be counted?", settled incorrectly ...

A user writes, "This should not have been settled. They are not assigning the delegates for Michigan based upon popular vote. The DNC did not count the popular vote and assign delegates based upon it. They created an arbitrary ratio. Obama wasn't even on the ballot in Michigan and they gave him delegates. Comment #2 by Ryanj should not have allowed this to be settled."

Ryan says, "After a second more detailed look at it I'll admit I'm baffled ... "

Say it isn't so.

[ It's so.]
posted 12 weeks ago
  13 dieseldog
why didn't you settle "will the vote in Michigan and Florida be counted?" so everbody won?
posted 12 weeks ago
  14 ryanj[Admin]
Hi dieseldog,

Over the last day I got caught up in some other stuff, but I've now resettled so It should all be ok now...

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub Category Editor
posted 12 weeks ago

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