Created Wed 5th Mar 11:36am PST by sclossick

All questions » Politics » US Election 2008 » 

Will Hillary Clinton win the North Carolina Democratic primary on May 6th?

North Carolina has the second highest number of delegates up for grabs among the states yet to hold a primary (as of Mar 5 - Pennsylvania has more delegates.) Being late in the primary season with so many delegates could bring lots of visits from the candidates and more pressure on John Edwards to make an endorsement.

Prediction history

   Larger graph on Graph tab below

Outcome probabilities when settled

	Yes	5%
	No	95%

Settled as No on last Tuesday 9:52pm PST

Reason: http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#NC
More settlement details on Info tab

 

Details

• Question status: Settled
• Suspend date: last Tuesday 3:30pm PST
• Settlement date: last Tuesday 9:52pm PST
• Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after last Tuesday 3:30pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
• Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.
• Initial likelihoods: Yes: 42%

Action history

Created Wed 5th Mar 11:36am PST by sclossick

Edited Wed 5th Mar 2:16pm PST by ryanj

Suspended last Tuesday 3:30pm PST : Suspend date reached

Settlement requested last Tuesday 4:28pm PST by crowe: NBC and CNN have declared Obama winner of NC Dem primary as of 7:00 p.m. CST 5-6-08.

Settlement requested last Tuesday 6:02pm PST by yeagerstew: results are in

Settled as 'No' last Tuesday 9:52pm PST by ryanj: http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#NC

Comments

  1 jersjusttrolling

by May 6th, NC's primary will be purely symbolic.

posted 8 weeks ago

  2 duckie

i dont know, with the talk of campaigns chasing eachothers delegates and the swing in superdelegates especially i think that they are gonna fight this one down to the wire.

posted 8 weeks ago

  3 mrpredictypants

obama lead in nc shrinks to 9.

http://www.charlotte.com/109/story/567558.html

posted 4 weeks ago

  4 cancelledbysbc

My Pre Primary (Indiana North Carolina) Preview


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ja_CdV6VRrY

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xDLlfxHiNX8

posted 6 days ago

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Prediction Graph

Will Hillary Clinton win the North Carolina Democratic primary on May 6th?

Yes

Recent predictions

5 days ago

russell predicted No (H$250)

5 days ago

russell predicted No (H$200)

5 days ago

yeagerstew predicted No (H$1,000)

5 days ago

morgie predicted Yes (H$20)

5 days ago

kennstar predicted Yes (H$20)

5 days ago

jakob predicted Yes (H$5)

5 days ago

boozed predicted Yes (H$40)

5 days ago

reeeno predicted No (H$1,986)

5 days ago

canucksfan9 predicted No (H$9)

5 days ago

davievans predicted No (H$50)