Created Tue 22nd Apr 8:01am PDT by

hawktexas

All questions » Politics » US Election 2008 »

Will Hillary Clinton win the Pennsylvania primary by 10 points or more?

Settled as No

Forecast history, %

Zoom in

Settled

Yes

37%

63%

Activity: H$6,494

Settled as No on Fri 25th Apr 3:53am PDT

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Suspend date: Tue 22nd Apr 5:55pm PDT

Settlement date: Fri 25th Apr 3:53am PDT

Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 22nd Apr 5:55pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

Created Tue 22nd Apr 8:01am PDT by

hawktexas

Suspended Tue 22nd Apr 5:55pm PDT : Suspend date reached

Settlement requested Thu 24th Apr 5:14am PDT by

crowe: she won by 9.x

Settlement requested Thu 24th Apr 4:55pm PDT by

markov: PA -
*** 9,263 out of 9,264 Districts (99.99%) Reporting Statewide ***

Settled as 'No' Fri 25th Apr 3:53am PDT by

ryanj

: This one was very close, but with only 1 district not reporting the count is in from the Pa. state. Clinton won by 9.2% points.

Here's the link: http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/ElectionsInformation.aspx?FunctionID=13&ElectionID=27&OfficeID=1

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Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.... read all

Predictions (32)

32 predictions

18 weeks ago

hoernla predicted No (H$70 at 58%)

18 weeks ago

jenniandboys [Admin]

predicted No (H$100 at 58%)

18 weeks ago

epicur predicted No (H$110 at 58%)

18 weeks ago

mcoen predicted No (H$100 at 57%)

18 weeks ago

triathematician predicted Yes (H$100 at 43%)

Comments (8)

ryanj

Market isn't a duplicate. Other markets have ranges from 5-10 and above 10.

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor

posted 18 weeks ago

ryanj

Apologies for the confusion regarding suspend times. I thought I'd placed 8 o'clock suspend times. But my math must've been off. All PA markets are now set to a 7:55 end time.

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor

posted 18 weeks ago

destry [Admin]

With 99% of precincts reporting she currently holds a 9.3% lead.

posted 18 weeks ago

crowe

99% reporting... Clinton 54.7 to Obama 45.3 according to NY Times http://www.nytimes.com/
Not quite 10 points.

posted 18 weeks ago

mrpredictypants

Boo yeah

posted 18 weeks ago

ironman288

that was really a lot closer than I would have liked with 2000 H$ on this...

posted 18 weeks ago

ryanj

Market is still undecided. The numbers are very close. Although besides FOX and the State Government of Pa. are reporting a 10% win. The Pa. government has the returns here:

http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/ElectionsInformation.aspx?FunctionID=13&ElectionID=27&OfficeID=1

If you look at the link you'll see that it's still to close to call in regards to being a 10% win.

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor

posted 18 weeks ago

markov

It's starting to look like PA is finished counting their votes, updating their web site, or both. Since several media sites appear to be rounding their numbers and are probably relying on the same data from the PA site that we are, I suggest we settle this thing based on the PA web site info by 4/25/08. If anything, the numbers are likely to slightly reduce the point differential between the candidates given the probable locations of unreported precincts.

posted 18 weeks ago