colleen
Will Hillary Clinton withdraw from the nomination race before the Democratic Convention?
Settling based on 99.9% rule
Background:
Hillary Clinton's been working for a long time for the Democratic nomination, but Obama's entrance onto the scene has very likely ruined Clinton's hopes of becoming President, at least in 2008. Clinton's continuously been behind in the delegate count and the popular vote. It's increasingly unlikely that she will secure the nomination, but how long will she drag the process out for?
Most of the punditry and the media are completely convinced of Obama as the nominee. Speculation surrounds the question of when Clinton will resign as well as what she's looking for in return for conceding (VP?).
The Democratic Convention will be held during August in Denver, which leaves most of June and all of July free of primaries. Clinton's last hope is to somehow win over Superdelegates but even this is a long shot.
Although it'd seem that the good moneys on Clinton withdrawing prior to the convention, Hillary has stated that she's in for the long haul. This maybe Clinton's last chance so it is in a way an all or nothing shot at the White House! [Ryan Jacobs]
Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.
| Yes |
| |||
| No |
|
- Activity: H$749,096 |
- Predictions: 1525 |
Comments: 47
Suspend date: Sun 31st Aug 2008 3:59pm PST
Settlement date: Thu 5th Jun 2008 3:27pm PST
Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%
Action history:
colleen 
jenniandboys![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin"){kind=icon}
: Assuming a suspended campaign counts, settles as yes. (market suspended) 
ryanj
: Settling based on 99.9% rule 
Suspend date: Sun 31st Aug 2008 3:59pm PST
Settlement date: Thu 5th Jun 2008 3:27pm PST details 
Get widget!Predictions (1525)
paulf
predicted Yes (H$50 at 99%)
mvr79
predicted Yes (H$100 at 98%)
pryd
predicted Yes (H$100 at 98%)
notablenotices![[Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif "This user is a super user"){kind=icon}
predicted No (H$20 at 3%)Comments (47)
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but shes too stubborn she never will
BARACK OBAMA!!! YES WE CAN!!!
I'm buying more Hillary Stays In
I've got a boatload of H$ on her dropping out of this thing distributed across a few questions- getting close to 10K on this one alone.
As I fall you rise =)
Yes, We can. But we probably shouldn't.
http://www.usnews.com/articles/news/politics/2008/05/09/why-clinton-wont-quit.html
Clinton Concedes to Obama, Steals Libertarian Nomination from Barr
http://www.thespoof.com/news/spoof.cfm?headline=s2i35848
"May 23, 2008 --
Hillary Clinton today brought up the assassination of Sen. Robert Kennedy while defending her decision to stay in the race against Barack Obama.
"My husband did not wrap up the nomination in 1992 until he won the California primary somewhere in the middle of June, right? We all remember Bobby Kennedy was assassinated in June in California. I don't understand it," she said, dismissing calls to drop out."
I think referencing an assassination was in bad taste, obviously. But she's not getting out anytime soon.
Where was this discussed / clarified / stated that if she suspends her campaign it will be settled as "yes"? It may be "right under my nose" ;-) but I missed it.
Jeeze when she's gone were gonna probably going to lose at least 15-20 markets.
Regards,
Ryan
Hubdub Category Editor
I hope this ends soon, I got so much H$ money in this it is scary.
I think this is all over by Wednesday.
1 - "It does appear to be pretty clear that Senator Obama is going to be the nominee," said Tom Vilsack, the former Iowa governor and a national co-chairman of Clinton's campaign. "After Tuesday's contests, she needs to acknowledge that he's going to be the nominee and quickly get behind him."
2 - "I don't think we're going to fight this at the convention," Rendell said on CBS's "Face the Nation" Sunday. "Because even were we to win it, unless it's going to change enough delegates for Senator Clinton to get the nomination, then it would be a fight that would have no purpose."
3 - But privately, her aides have said Clinton's run is over and it's simply a matter of when it becomes formal. And after maintaining a respectful distance in the final weeks of the campaign, Obama campaign aides have begun to reach out to their counterparts on the Clinton campaign in hopes of pulling together and ameliorating hard feelings.
she didn't withdraw
I'm intrigued.
You're not really waiting to see if this is going to be her concession speech are you?
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