Will Hillary Clinton withdraw from the nomination race before the Democratic Convention?

i wish she would withdraw
but shes too stubborn she never will

BARACK OBAMA!!! YES WE CAN!!!

Am I imagining things or did she prevail in tonights debate 4/16/08? Obama seemed a bit tired/resigned?

If things remain close the super delegate vote could possibly give her the victory. I don't think she'll drop out unless theres zero chance of not winning it.

I can't believe that people really think this will go all the way to the convention. Once the primaries are over the party will encourage super delegates to make up their minds asap to get things settled. Everyone involved knows it would be horrible for the dems to drag things out for another couple months. I guess maybe there are still people who think she has a shot at winning but this is over as far as I'm concerned. I guess I'll just keep pouring my H$ into yes :)

I think people are asking the wrong question. Why would Clinton withdraw? What does she have to gain by withdrawing? She has nothing to loose by riding it out. In her mind, it's not about the party.

I fear I've over-exposed myself to Hillary... NOT LIKE THAT! I mean I have too much H$ riding on her staying in it for the long haul... My H$ took a HUGE hit in the radical shift of this (and related) markets. My predictions dropped 30K in one evening... but if she hangs in there I'll get it back and more

@Erik - I agree. Since Obamama can't secure it on pledged delegates alone the super delegates will have to do the choosing. Even if it looks certain they'll push Obamama over the top before the convention she can ride it out to see what happens.

I'm buying more Hillary Stays In

there, take that market! I pushed no up to 34% woohoo I rise and fall with Hillary and I don't even like her!!!

@fingers - please let me know when you plan to buy more "no" - I want to be ready to pick up some more "yes" :D

I've got a boatload of H$ on her dropping out of this thing distributed across a few questions- getting close to 10K on this one alone.

@robmar - buying more NOW!

As I fall you rise =)

@robmar - your photography is AMAZING! I'm currently viewing your "Christmas on Main Street"... "BEAUTIFUL" The details and all the lights are so perfect - you obviously spend a lot of time and care capturing/creating moments like that.

@fingers - thanks so much for the photography comments :) It's definitely something that I really enjoy! I need to update that site... lately I've been doing a lot more "people" photography and the site doesn't really reflect that at this point...

Why is anyone so sure she'll drop out? As far as I'm concerned she's winning this thing right now and I don't even like her.

Yes, We can. But we probably shouldn't.

Why Clinton Won't Quit
http://www.usnews.com/articles/news/politics/2008/05/09/why-clinton-wont-quit.html

So I almost hate to bring this up, but what happens if she "suspends" her campaign a la Mit Romney? Maybe we should just cross that bridge when we come to it, but I could see this question coming down to a debate over the definition of "withdraw"...

It has been discussed that if she was to suspend that would be settled as a yes. I just can't imagine the democratic party allowing this to go on for months. I believe the May 31st meeting of rules committee will agree to seat 50% of the delegates in Florida. I think they will come to an arranged split for Michigan delegates. I believe that Clinton will use the Puerto Rico victory as her graceful exit.

Suspension = settled as yes would be my interpretation. And I agree- there's no way this thing is going to the convention.

according to the bets most people think no but the people who say yes put more money on it. quite interesting!

In the last 4 hours, there have been 10 public predictions on this question 5 were for yes, 5 were for no. When a question gets to these odds, alot of people will wager on the underdog hoping to invest a little and get big payout, regardless of thier viewpoints. I know I have a ton of money on this question more than 100k.

Breaking news:
Clinton Concedes to Obama, Steals Libertarian Nomination from Barr
http://www.thespoof.com/news/spoof.cfm?headline=s2i35848

Obviously she's in it until at least June: http://www.nypost.com/seven/05232008/news/nationalnews/why_hill_wont_drop_out__bobby_kennedy_wa_112232.htm

"May 23, 2008 --

Hillary Clinton today brought up the assassination of Sen. Robert Kennedy while defending her decision to stay in the race against Barack Obama.

"My husband did not wrap up the nomination in 1992 until he won the California primary somewhere in the middle of June, right? We all remember Bobby Kennedy was assassinated in June in California. I don't understand it," she said, dismissing calls to drop out."

I think referencing an assassination was in bad taste, obviously. But she's not getting out anytime soon.

These are the rantings of a desperate woman. Was this an open call for one of her supporters to kill Obama? I say she is still going to drop out after June 3rd.

after her remark today about the Kennedy assassination in June I doubt if she will be going on after June in this campaign

her ass is grass

Destry - you wrote, above @ #16 "it has been discussed that if she was to suspend that would be settled as a yes."

Where was this discussed / clarified / stated that if she suspends her campaign it will be settled as "yes"? It may be "right under my nose" ;-) but I missed it.

@newwrangler - I believe it was in the getsatisfaction threads. I know I asked the question because I was worried about settlement.

I hate Hilary but do yall really think that she will give up???

Look at the percents!!! No is only 18%! She is not going to give up. im goona get alot of H$. I love this question.

This is gonna be fun.

I have the feeling this market is going to go for a ride after saturdays meeting of the DNC rules folks.

I just can't imagine this race not being over by mid next week. He is what 48 according to CNN from having the 2025. You figure she wins PR by a margin of 70-30 at the most which gives him about 15 delegates and then he is projected to win other two by 10 points which gives him 17 delegates total. All of her speeches she has mentioned letting all the voters vote, well after Tuesday that is accomplished. Part of me thinks she uses the big victory in PR as her farewell party, but I could be wrong.

I've learned to not underestimate Mrs. Clinton. You think she's gone and then she's not. Whatever your feelings about her you have to give her credit for hanging on this long.

Jeeze when she's gone were gonna probably going to lose at least 15-20 markets.

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub Category Editor

and when she's gone, and we lose 15-20 markets, I'll probably lose 15K-20K H$... You see, this is my win-win strategy... if she stays I win a BUNDLE, if she leaves I throw a party... I can't lose =D

@fof: nice strategy, i like it!

Here is a great news story about the topic. http://apnews.excite.com/article/20080530/D90VLHCG0.html
I hope this ends soon, I got so much H$ money in this it is scary.

@fof, funny that is my strategy too, wanna combine parties/winnings?

@duckie, @fingers - I love the strategy. I went with the theory of if she doesn't drop out then not only will I lose a ton of hubdub dollars but will just jump off a big building, so it won't matter.

I think this is all over by Wednesday.

@destry - I'm with you on this one. I think fortunes are going to swing pretty wildly the day all these questions are settled (please let it be next week!!!)...

@jenni - I love the fact that the market asking if contest be decided by July 1st is at 94% yes, but this market is 88% yes. Seems like there is a little money to be made here, with hopefully a quick turnaround.

Here is what her campaign talking heads are saying, if you look closely it seems that this will be over by end of the week.
1 - "It does appear to be pretty clear that Senator Obama is going to be the nominee," said Tom Vilsack, the former Iowa governor and a national co-chairman of Clinton's campaign. "After Tuesday's contests, she needs to acknowledge that he's going to be the nominee and quickly get behind him."
2 - "I don't think we're going to fight this at the convention," Rendell said on CBS's "Face the Nation" Sunday. "Because even were we to win it, unless it's going to change enough delegates for Senator Clinton to get the nomination, then it would be a fight that would have no purpose."
3 - But privately, her aides have said Clinton's run is over and it's simply a matter of when it becomes formal. And after maintaining a respectful distance in the final weeks of the campaign, Obama campaign aides have begun to reach out to their counterparts on the Clinton campaign in hopes of pulling together and ameliorating hard feelings.

According to the Spitzer rule, this should have settled as No. She has said she will fight to the end.

so where's the proof?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!

she didn't withdraw

So someone saying that someone else said that Clinton said she was planning to do something days from now, counts as her actually doing it today?

I'm intrigued.

I'm curious to know about this as well. When did she withdraw?

She hasn't withdrawn...don't you follow the news? You can't always believe what you see here. Waddya think, Hubdub is factual?

Erik,

You're not really waiting to see if this is going to be her concession speech are you?

It was reported that it was going to be, mork. My comment was to neverlupus...4 hours ago, she hadn't withdrawn. Although, Hubdub said she had (by settling this market)