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Will Iran explode a nuclear device in 2008?

Current forecast: 2% chance 4%
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 2% likely to happen (down 4% in last 1 day)

'Explode' means test or use.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Make your prediction!

Yes
2%
No
98%
Activity: H$30,393
Question suspends in 4 weeks

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (4 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 5%

Action history:

Created Fri 1st Feb 3:11pm PST by robmar
Edited Thu 6th Mar 12:49pm PST by lesley[Admin]

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (4 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (45)

45 predictions

3 weeks ago
fundo predicted No (H$50 at 98%)
9 weeks ago
erri_six predicted No (H$100 at 94%)
10 weeks ago
rjrolsen predicted No (H$100 at 93%)
13 weeks ago
monkeyx predicted No (H$100 at 93%)
14 weeks ago
linny40 predicted No (H$50 at 93%)
more

Comments (2)

I don't know how reliable this blogging site is, but here is the headline:

UNCONFIRMED: WAS IRANIAN WEEKEND EARTHQUAKE A NUCLEAR TEST?
http://flashtrafficblog.wordpress.com/2008/10/31/unconfirmed-iranian-weekend-earthquake-a-nuclear-test/

Maybe someone else has more details?
posted 4 weeks ago

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