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Will 'Iron Man' or 'The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian' earn more on their respective opening weekends?

Settled as Iron Man

Chart for Iron Man opening: http://www.the-numbers.com/charts/weekly/2008/20080502.php

Chart for Prince Caspian opening: http://www.the-numbers.com/charts/thisweek.php

Background:

Iron Man is due to be released on 2 May.

The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian is due to be released on 16 May.

Which movie will win this box office battle?


Settlement details: Settlement source: www.the-numbers.com

Total gross for opening 3-day weekend.

 
Forecast history, %
   Zoom in

Settled

Iron Man
91%
The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian
9%
None of the above
0%
Activity: H$107,083
Settled as Iron Man on Mon 19th May 11:15am PDT

Suspend date: Fri 16th May 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Mon 19th May 11:15am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 16th May 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Iron Man: 60%, The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian: 38%, None of the above: 2%

Action history:

Created Mon 14th Apr 5:21am PDT by tisha[Admin]
Edited Mon 14th Apr 5:27am PDT by tisha[Admin]
Suspended Fri 16th May 12:59am PDT : Suspend date reached
Settlement requested Mon 19th May 9:49am PDT by kasulked: Should be settled as Prince Caspian it opened at 56 mil. and Iron man opened last weekend at 51 mil. see:

http://www.the-numbers.com/
Settlement requested Mon 19th May 10:04am PDT by tarpash: Iron Man grossed more on its opening weekend.

Chart for Iron Man opening: http://www.the-numbers.com/charts/weekly/2008/20080502.php

Chart for Prince Caspian opening: http://www.the-numbers.com/charts/thisweek.php
Settled as 'Iron Man' Mon 19th May 11:15am PDT by ryanj[Admin]: Chart for Iron Man opening: http://www.the-numbers.com/charts/weekly/2008/20080502.php

Chart for Prince Caspian opening: http://www.the-numbers.com/charts/thisweek.php

Suspend date: Fri 16th May 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Mon 19th May 11:15am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Fri 16th May 12:59am PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (481)

481 predictions

28 weeks ago
stephenp_nz predicted Iron Man (H$100 at 91%)
28 weeks ago
herbiet predicted The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian (H$20 at 9%)
28 weeks ago
saylor predicted Iron Man (H$200 at 91%)
28 weeks ago
valornhonor[Power User] predicted The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian (H$10 at 9%)
28 weeks ago
camedwardo predicted The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian (H$100 at 4%)
more

Comments (18)

I don't understand the none of the above option? They're tied? That's not counting a different movie doing better, right?
posted 33 weeks ago
  2 chull
I assume the 'None of the above' option is for a tie. The question is just for these two movies, head to head.

posted 33 weeks ago
  3 randburg
NONE OF THE ABOVE? With a choice of two, how can you have none? Perhaps if neither movie opens? Both get postponed? I doubt they will be cancelled at this stage...What a strange choice....
posted 33 weeks ago
  4 ryanj[Admin]
Iron Man is the safe bet here. Action movie, former drug addict, summer. How can it not beat a "kid's" movie that has morals.

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor
posted 33 weeks ago
  5 duckie
agreed. morals suck.
posted 33 weeks ago
  6 duckie
the history graphs seem to be doing a lot better recently
posted 33 weeks ago
  7 tisha[Admin]
None of the above was really a concession to the slim slim chance of a tie, or one of the movies not opening or something...you never know, stranger things have happened on hubdub!

Settled according to the weekend charts on the-numbers.com which I do believe are US figures.
posted 32 weeks ago
  8 measure
Iron man is going to be hit hard by its target audience being busy playing GTA 4.

However, GTA 4 will not at all effect the target audience of Narnia. I'm going Narnia on this.
posted 32 weeks ago
  9 stephen
hmm why did i bet on none of the above?
its worth has gone down to 2 dollars
i thought it was if any movie beat these two
wow i think i lost that
posted 32 weeks ago
  10 lbow
iron man will no do well as it is out the weekend after gta 4. I my self had pland to see it with friends but will not as i will be playing gta
posted 32 weeks ago
Narnia is the clear winner in my opinion ... Yes that is the minority position, until just now, haha, but the fact is, Iron Man was written by a 3 year old or some other talentless yack, they destroyed a GREAT character and theme and just wrecked it with this crummy script, and anyway, Narnia has 3 years of anticipation for this 2nd film and the original opened with nearly $66 million and it was untested at the time and went on to earn nearly $300 million, whereas Iron Man is only expected to end up around $230 million by the end of its theatrical run which calls for an opening of right at $70 million MAX, and I could see Narnia easily opening around $75 million and I think, take that as a guess, of Iron Man opening under $65 million.
So, there are my 2 cents worth :-D Haha, and that about ALL this opinion may be worth, hahaha :-D
See you all after Narnia opens :-D

lucidstates
posted 31 weeks ago
  12 scott
Iron Man is kicking major ass this weekend. Reviews are outstanding.
posted 30 weeks ago
  13 robmar
Wow- I'm definitely second-guessing all the H$ I have on Narnia. What do you all think- does it have a chance?
posted 30 weeks ago
No chance. Iron Man grossed 100 mil in the first weekend. There's only been about ten other movies that have done that ever. I'm gonna go fund this race tomorrow :D.
posted 29 weeks ago
Narnia is tracking for about $60 mill:
http://perezhilton.com/2008-05-12-the-anti-speed-racer
posted 29 weeks ago
#1: Wrong weekend, kids are still in school
#2: Disappointing reviews
#3: Sequel
#4: Bad promotion strategies
#5: Not Harry Potter or Lord of the Rings
#6: No sex, drugs, or bloody gore
posted 28 weeks ago
  17 chatarra
Uh-oh
(Looks like "Chronicles..." will take the lead
http://boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2008-05-16&p=.htm
posted 28 weeks ago
  18 lvnmom22
The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian only pulled in $56.6 million (according to studio estimates), while Iron Man pulled in over $100 million it's opening weekend. Iron Man - Awesome!!
posted 28 weeks ago

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