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Will JK Rowling announce another Harry Potter book is in the works by the end of 2009?

Current forecast: 21% chance
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 21% likely to happen (unchanged in last 1 day)


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Yes
21%
No
79%
Activity: H$6,569
Question suspends in 1 year

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 2009 11:59pm PST (1 year to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 20%

Action history:

Created Mon 28th Jan 5:24pm PST by dorktron
Edited Wed 5th Mar 2:57pm PST by chris[Admin]
Settlement requested Fri 1st Aug 8:09pm PDT by cplotter: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/01/arts/01arts-FAIRYTALESFR_BRF.html

http://www.borders.com/online/store/ArticleView_talesofbeedlebardpr

While it may not be another novel in the vein of the other Harry Potter books, I would argue that this announced publishing would count as a "new Harry Potter book". (Even though that decision would be against my original bet of "no".)
Clarified Sat 2nd Aug 5:38am PDT by jenniandboys[Admin]: Book must be a fiction novel set in the world of Harry Potter, i.e. Prequel or #8 following Deathly Hollows. Encyclopedias or poetry will not count.

Suspend date: Thu 31st Dec 2009 11:59pm PST (1 year to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (26)

26 predictions

2 weeks ago
rogi predicted Yes (H$50 at 21%)
2 weeks ago
charliewarlie predicted No (H$100 at 79%)
15 weeks ago
koboldok predicted Yes (H$100 at 21%)
16 weeks ago
jhouseholder predicted Yes (H$20 at 20%)
16 weeks ago
monkeynacho predicted No (H$20 at 72%)
more

Comments (1)

Clarified: Book must be a fiction novel set in the world of Harry Potter, i.e. Prequel or #8 following Deathly Hollows. Encyclopedias or poetry will not count although the novel does not have to focus on Harry (perhaps a Snape spinoff?!)

This is partly because the intention to do the Encyclopedias and poetry books was reported at the time of the last book.
posted 17 weeks ago

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