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Will Jerome Kerviel be convicted of any crimes for his part in trading fraud in France?

Current forecast: 85% chance
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 85% likely to happen (unchanged in last 1 day)

Jerome Kerviel, the former Société Générale employee at the center of the biggest trading fraud in history, has confessed to police that he hid his activities from superiors, and he gambled in the markets because he wanted to be a star trader, the Paris prosecutor said Monday.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Yes
85%
No
15%
Activity: H$7,821
Open question (no suspend date)

Suspend date: None

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 85%

Action history:

Created Mon 28th Jan 1:18pm PST by imaque
Edited Fri 11th Apr 11:57am PDT by andrew

Suspend date: None
more info...

 

Predictions (13)

13 predictions

1 week ago
cesar_ferrarini predicted Yes (H$100 at 85%)
39 weeks ago
epicur predicted Yes (H$2 at 77%)
39 weeks ago
pics4d predicted No (H$1,000 at 19%)
43 weeks ago
imaque predicted Yes (H$20 at 85%)
44 weeks ago
ozarkguy predicted Yes (H$50 at 85%)
more

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