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Will Jesus return by the end of 2008?

Current forecast: 2% chance 1%
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 2% likely to happen (up 1% in last 1 day)

Jesus, also known as Jesus of Nazareth, was a 1st century Jewish leader who is the central figure of Christianity, and is also an important figure in several other religions.


Settlement details: The Second Coming, or return of Jesus Christ from Heaven to Earth, as reported by Fox News.

 
Forecast history, %
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Make your prediction!

Yes
2%
No
98%
Activity: H$196,230
Question suspends in 4 weeks

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (4 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 25%

Action history:

Created Tue 22nd Jan 2:09pm PST by lv08
Edited Wed 27th Feb 2:50am PST by nigeleccles[Admin]

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (4 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (684)

684 predictions

2 weeks ago
anjyrulz predicted No (H$100 at 99%)
2 weeks ago
divakaleigh predicted No (H$2,000 at 99%)
3 weeks ago
peddi predicted No (H$55 at 98%)
3 weeks ago
swatjester predicted Yes (H$100 at 1%)
3 weeks ago
athex predicted No (H$20 at 99%)
more

Comments (32)

  1 donal
Those look like conservapedia percentages...........but there is no liberal bias at hubdub......so lets see
posted 44 weeks ago
  2 donal
bit of a slow news day on the Jesus front
posted 44 weeks ago
  3 hello
Just saw Jesus walking down the street, we chatted and he said this question was ungodly
posted 44 weeks ago
  4 jackpot11
its a sure money winner hahahaha!!!!
posted 44 weeks ago
  5 brgnbob
Jesus who?
Return where?
posted 44 weeks ago
  6 novo
This sort of thing should be pulled :(
posted 44 weeks ago
  7 measure
Why, novo? The question is very precise... there won't be much question on anyone's mind as to if it has been fulfilled or not by the end date. I'm just surprised it hasn't settled down to 99.5 percent 'no' yet.
posted 43 weeks ago
  8 wijiki
I'd be willing to take that bet, but I don't want to tie up my hubbucks for that long. :)
posted 43 weeks ago
  9 jericho
Even though if I bet 20 dollars I only receive 20 dollars when I win, I still want to put my money down on it.
posted 43 weeks ago
I've noticed a problem with this question. 'Return' implies he has already been here once before.....
posted 43 weeks ago
  11 fatodubs
There's very little debate that Jesus was here. The debate is over whether he was divine, a prophet, or a nobody. As a godfather, you should know that.
posted 43 weeks ago
The irony of this question is that anyone who bets that he will return(and is a Christian) won't be around to collect their hub dollars...
This question should definitely be removed from the Science category though- to put this sort of nonsense right next to actual scientific questions is absurd.
posted 43 weeks ago
  13 kevans
in what world is this science? I agree 100% with greenenergy...
posted 43 weeks ago
Who said I was a Godfather? Are you fat?

I agree with the last two posts. Religion and Science are polar opposites and this market should be pulled.
posted 43 weeks ago
  15 dollars
you should weigh in on the question @ getsatisfaction by clicking help then the getsatisfaction link the question there is:

"Should Hubdub insiders who settle questions be allowed to make predictions?

To date, Hubdub staff who settle questions have also participated in making predictions on those and other questions. We have strived to be as objective as possible on every settlement and settlements are regularly cross-checked. However some users perceive that this conflict of interest may cause us to incorrectly settle questions for our benefit. We can change the rules to:
(1) No restriction (status quo)
(2) No predicting on questions within their category
(3) No predicting on any questions

Thoughts?
posted 43 weeks ago
  16 spyder
Anybody else think that the spikes in the value of this market at 4pm Feb 1 and 4 am Feb 2 are fishy? Seems like a good way to cheat is to bet "Yes" when the market is at 2%. Then open a new hubdub account, bet the whole $1000 on "Yes" driving the price of "Yes" up, then cashing in my claim on the first account. Even if the price goes from 2% to 3%, that's a 50% increase in the initial investment. If it goes to 10-15% as it did during these recent spikes, that's a 5-7.5 fold increase in the value of the investment. Another thing to note is that the activity on this market is remarkably high. $56000 in trades over the last week. Odd for a market that is pretty much a throw-away bet... Someone has a get rich quick scheme going on if you ask me!
posted 43 weeks ago
Well, if he does return, and you're Left Behind (to quote the title of the bestselling book series) and able to settle this bet, I suppose hubdub dollars are the least of your worries. And if he does return, and you ascended, well then, you won't be here to settle it, will you?
posted 43 weeks ago
Sorry, green energy, I didn't see your post before I posted. Seems as though we were thinking the same way on the "here to collect it" dilemma. Although, I'm not sure as to where the question should go. World, I guess? But if somebody can put a question about extraterrestrial life in the science (absurd, in my opinion), then a question about something billions more believe in can stay. Although, it is, by definition, religion, not science. Hmmmmm.
posted 43 weeks ago
  19 peakyboo
Well, whatever... Dont expect him to do the same show again...Normally daddys go and the sons take over!
posted 42 weeks ago
As reported by Foxnews? REALLY? They couldn't report a story correctly if it were three words long! COME ON, DUDE... This IS a news-related site, not propaganda...
posted 33 weeks ago
hey, dollars, we already had that discussion, and nearly ALL of us here are OK with the admins betting....
posted 33 weeks ago
oops, sorry, dollars, didn't see the date, obviously you knew... guess i got a little upset about the foxnews settlement
posted 33 weeks ago
  23 diana
Come on, Fox news? I wouldn't take it seriously--besides, this market is just for fun. As for the recent spike, I really have no explanation.
posted 33 weeks ago
  24 mrperfkt[Admin]
Just saw this question (can't believe it's the most active!). So, after reading spyders comment above, wonder why there appears to be another spike and how this continues to have so much activity. Am I missing something here?
posted 30 weeks ago
  25 bcguelph
Remember - total activity means the total amount invested lifetime, not currently invested. Someone could put in, and then pull out the same $10,000 and the total activity keeps going up and up.
posted 30 weeks ago
  26 bcguelph
Is there a bonus if he arrives on Christmas Day?
posted 30 weeks ago
  27 kruijs[Power User]
errr, today, 1 day activity, 51K+?
posted 30 weeks ago
  28 mrperfkt[Admin]
No kidding! Seems like someone should go to church..."forgive me father, for I have cheated on hubdub..." lol
posted 30 weeks ago
  29 smidge76
As reported by FoxNews?? I thought in the event of the second coming, all of their reporters would be raptured up. <shrugs>
posted 28 weeks ago
  30 mooman6
It has to be Fox News. Any other news station would claim that we just elected Jesus to the White House.
posted 3 weeks ago
  31 chatarra
@Moonman6: Best comment of the week!
posted 3 weeks ago
The folks who vote yes, if they win won't be here to collect...can we split it???

Fox is claiming we elected the False Messiah to the White House aka Anti-Christ!
posted 3 weeks ago

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