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Will John McCain be hospitalized before the November Election?

Current forecast: 30% chance 7%
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 30% likely to happen (down 7% in last 1 day)

Hospitalized means taken to a hospital, this does not require him spending the night. By taken to a hospital I do not mean for a scheduled test.
 
% chance over time
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Yes
30%
No
70%
Activity: H$12,122
Question suspends in 9 weeks
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by CNN, MSNBC or ABC. By taken to a hospital I do not mean for a scheduled test.

Suspend date: Mon 3rd Nov 11:59pm PST (9 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 20%

Action history:

Created Mon 3rd Mar 7:08pm PST by historyteacher
Edited Mon 17th Mar 2:10pm PDT by ryanj[Admin]
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by CNN, MSNBC or ABC. By taken to a hospital I do not mean for a scheduled test.... read all

 

Predictions

37 predictions

19 hours ago
l80bug predicted No (H$20 at 63%)
4 weeks ago
tneill1990 predicted Yes (H$100 at 37%)
11 weeks ago
coolkraft predicted Yes (H$50 at 33%)
12 weeks ago
notablenotices predicted Yes (H$5 at 33%)
13 weeks ago
epicur predicted No (H$100 at 65%)
more

Comments

  1 robmar
"taken to a hospital"... does this mean by ambulance or would a scheduled test that is done in a hospital count?

i read this to say that any visit to a hospital where mccain receives medical treatment would count
posted 23 weeks ago
By taken to a hospital I do not mean for a scheduled test. So if he has a physical and has blood work or an x-ray at a hospital this does not count. The intent is something unexpected. This would not necessarily mean an ambulance or a stay there, just an unexpected medical issue that requires a trip to a hospital. His health and age are an issue in this election and any unexpected health problem (even if it turns out to be nothing) could cost him votes.
posted 23 weeks ago

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