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Will Karen Matthews go to jail for the disappearance of her daughter Shannon?

Current forecast: 90% chance 4%
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 90% likely to happen (up 4% in last 1 day)

9 year old Shannon Matthews disappeared on Feb 19th and was found 24 days later hidden in a relatives house. Since then various members of her family have been questioned and her mother has been arrested.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/england/west_yorkshire/7337258.stm

Clarification: The market suspend date has been moved up due to the ongoing trial


Settlement details: As reported by the BBC. Suspend date set for Wed Apr 16th but may be reopened after that court appearance.

 
Forecast history, %
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Make your prediction!

Yes
90%
No
10%
Activity: H$32,373
Question suspends in 4 weeks

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 5pm PST (4 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 75%

Action history:

Created Tue 8th Apr 3:46pm PDT by lesley[Admin]
Edited Tue 8th Apr 3:49pm PDT by lesley[Admin]
Edited Wed 9th Apr 5:04am PDT by lesley[Admin]
Suspended Wed 16th Apr 2am PDT : Suspend date reached
Unsuspended Wed 16th Apr 5:32am PDT by lesley[Admin]
Edited Wed 16th Apr 5:33am PDT by lesley[Admin]
Edited Wed 16th Apr 5:34am PDT by lesley[Admin]
Suspended Mon 30th Jun 2am PDT : Suspend date reached
Unsuspended Fri 4th Jul 5:56am PDT by lesley[Admin]: Trial date set for Nov 11th.
Changed Description Thu 23rd Oct 4:38am PDT by tomg[Admin]
Suspended Tue 11th Nov 5pm PST : Suspend date reached
Changed Suspend date last Wednesday 6:20am PST by ryanj[Admin]: was: "2008-11-11 17:00:00"
Unsuspended last Wednesday 6:21am PST by ryanj[Admin]: Market suspend date has been moved up as the court trial is on going
Settlement requested last Wednesday 8:51am PST by mistert: Hi. This question is once again well past the suspend date, and Karen Matthews is still not in jail.

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 5pm PST (4 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (164)

164 predictions

1 min ago
oocares predicted Yes (H$50 at 90%)
16 mins ago
acousticwilliam predicted Yes (H$100 at 90%)
2 hours ago
sman1955 predicted Yes (H$1,000 at 90%)
2 hours ago
coriolismedia predicted Yes (H$100 at 89%)
3 hours ago
lima predicted Yes (H$1,890 at 88%)
more

Comments (2)

  1 lesley[Admin]
Suspend date extended to Nov 11th - date of next trial.
posted 21 weeks ago
  2 domdabomb
how long is it suspended to now ??
posted 2 weeks ago

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