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Will Marine Cpl. Cesar Laurean be extradited or deported from Mexico

Current forecast: Extradition (95% chance4%)
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Extradition with a probability of 95% (down 4% in last 1 day)

Sometimes Mexico will forego the traditional extradition and deport a suspected criminal for entering the country illegally.
Will he be extradited or deported?

Market suspend date moved to end of 2008. If by the suspend date no news is available the market will be voided.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Make your prediction!

Extradition
95%
Deported
5%
Activity: H$39,689
Question suspends in 4 weeks

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (4 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Extradition: 60%, Deported: 40%

Action history:

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (4 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (37)

37 predictions

3 weeks ago
cognos[Power User] predicted Deported (H$100 at 3%)
11 weeks ago
dragonfangxl predicted Deported (H$5 at 2%)
11 weeks ago
jsevigny predicted Deported (H$20 at 1%)
11 weeks ago
newswrangler[Power User] predicted Extradition (H$100 at 66%)
13 weeks ago
newswrangler[Power User] predicted Extradition (H$20 at 65%)
more

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