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Will McCain ask Tim Pawlenty or Mark Sanford to be his Vice Presidential nominee?

Settled as No

I really didn't know how to set the likelihood percentages, other than 50:50 -- that could be substantiated.


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.
This will be settled if he asks the two governors, not if they actually accept.

 
Forecast history, %
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Settled

Yes
46%
No
54%
Activity: H$31,141
Settled as No on Fri 29th Aug 9:41am PDT

Suspend date: Thu 28th Aug 8:59pm PDT Settlement date: Fri 29th Aug 9:41am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 28th Aug 8:59pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%, No: 50%

Action history:

Created Wed 27th Feb 3:46pm PST by newswrangler[Power User]
Edited Fri 29th Feb 3:56am PST by ryanj[Admin]
Clarified Fri 29th Feb 3:57am PST by ryanj[Admin]: Edited to make clearer: This will be settled if he asks the two governors, not if they actually accept.
Suspended Thu 28th Aug 8:59pm PDT : Suspend date reached
Settled as 'No' Fri 29th Aug 9:41am PDT by destry[Admin]

Suspend date: Thu 28th Aug 8:59pm PDT Settlement date: Fri 29th Aug 9:41am PDTPrediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Thu 28th Aug 8:59pm PDT have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
more info...

 

Predictions (77)

77 predictions

13 weeks ago
dudeman319 predicted Yes (H$100 at 45%)
13 weeks ago
morgie predicted Yes (H$20 at 61%)
13 weeks ago
pembeci predicted No (H$50 at 25%)
13 weeks ago
infernalmachine[Admin] predicted Yes (H$1,000 at 70%)
13 weeks ago
luvjoy78 predicted Yes (H$50 at 63%)
more

Comments (5)

People who liked this question also made predictions on "Will Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty be the GOP running mate in 08?" at <http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Will_Minnesota_Governor_Tim_Pawlenty_be_the_GOP_running_mate_in_08_1288/view>.

;-)
posted 39 weeks ago
  2 ryanj[Admin]
I love free advertising. Thanks truth!

Ryan
Hubdub U.S. Politics Content Editor
posted 39 weeks ago
Is the question really, "Will McCain ask ...?". I would expect that to be settled as Yes, if McCain was reported as asking either Pawlenty or Sanford to be his running mate, even if they decline.

TruthWrangler, was that your intent in creating this question? I'm not being contentious, just trying to clarify things. I have a whole H$100 invested in Yes, so this is (not so) obviously of (less than) critical concern to me 8^)
posted 39 weeks ago
A-A-A, that's an excellent point of clarification.

I suppose I could have asked "Will either ... Pawlenty OR Sanford be the running mate with John McCain?" (and, on some level, I'm surprised I didn't ask it that way ... ) That is/was the meaning of my question.

I guess I've internalized the sentiment of the saying (source unknown) that when a potential running mate is asked, (usually by the press) "are you interested in running as Vice President, everyone says they're not interested [in the #2 position], but when they're actually asked, no one says 'no' ".

If either of these guys is asked and declines, then that would be bigger news than this question ever thought to capture! (and anyone predicting "yes" on that basis would also win)
posted 39 weeks ago
  5 ryanj[Admin]
This will be settled if he asks the two governors, not if they actually accept. But as Truth said, no one turns down the VP spot, usually...

Ryan
Hubdub U.S. Politics Content Editor
posted 39 weeks ago

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