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Will Michael Jackson's "Neverland" be sold by 1 April 2009?

Current forecast: 48% chance
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 48% likely to happen (unchanged in last 1 day)


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source. Does not have to be U.S. exclusive. May be reported by any reputable/recognizable international media source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Yes
48%
No
52%
Activity: H$52,864
Question suspends in 17 weeks

Suspend date: Thu 2nd Apr 2009 12:59am PDT (17 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 23%

Action history:

Created Fri 29th Feb 12:13am PST by ron_paul2008
Edited Sun 2nd Mar 2:15am PST by tisha[Admin]
Edited Thu 6th Mar 1:14pm PST by tisha[Admin]
Settlement requested Fri 14th Mar 2:35pm PDT by mork[Power User]: http://ukpress.google.com/article/ALeqM5jWQF-SC3K18Ha7Nw4d-m7HYOwIBg
Suspended Wed 12th Nov 7:35am PST by jenniandboys[Admin]
Unsuspended Thu 13th Nov 4:28pm PST by jenniandboys[Admin]: Although the deed has changed hands, it is still owned by Michael (I guess this is how celebrities refinance their estates...). To settle as yes the property will need to pass out of Jackson's hands entirely - either his share in the company is bought out or the deed changes hands again.

To read more on the sale: http://ca.reuters.com/article/entertainmentNews/idCATRE4AC8VQ20081113

Suspend date: Thu 2nd Apr 2009 12:59am PDT (17 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (121)

121 predictions

1 week ago
jenniandboys[Admin] predicted No (H$1,000 at 50%)
3 weeks ago
evilbeth predicted Yes (H$100 at 52%)
17 weeks ago
onetreehillishot22 predicted No (H$20 at 47%)
28 weeks ago
landerson predicted No (H$20 at 52%)
32 weeks ago
turland predicted No (H$800 at 49%)
more

Comments (4)

  1 randburg
While the settlement details are specific for date, the actual prediction question doesn't state date or year. At a glance, this looks like "sometime" in April 2008, which is not the actual case. Can this please be edited?
posted 39 weeks ago
  2 heyy_joe
although I see mork has requested settlement I do not believe it should be settled. If Michael retains ownership as it appears he will, it is still not a "no" answer to the question. He could still, until April 2009, decide to sell the property which would result in a "yes" winning answer.
posted 37 weeks ago
  3 tisha[Admin]
At this stage, Jackson has only been given a reprieve until May 2008, which is well before the April 2009 cutoff for the question. I don't believe this question can be settled yet.
posted 37 weeks ago
  4 heyy_joe
My point is if he keeps the property, the way the question is worded he can still decide to sell it himself anytime up until april, 2009...therefore the question can not be settled until that time.
posted 37 weeks ago

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