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Will Michigan hold another democratic contest to seat their delegates by June 30th 2008

Settled as No

http://getsatisfaction.com/hubdub/topics/should_this_market_be_settled_politics


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history, %
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Settled

Yes
8%
No
92%
Activity: H$105,352
Settled as No on Wed 9th Apr 9:15am PDT

Suspend date: Wed 2nd Jul 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Wed 9th Apr 9:15am PDT

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 5%

Action history:

Created Fri 8th Feb 5:30pm PST by henrichin
Settlement requested Fri 14th Mar 4:44pm PDT by belarusia: Michigan Dems agree on June 3 do-over

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080314/ap_on_el_pr/primary_scramble
Previous action withdrawn Fri 21st Mar 10:04am PDT by ryanj[Admin]: Market was settled prematurely.
Settlement requested Fri 21st Mar 6:38pm PDT by dan_the_omniscient: http://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/Mich_Primary_Plan_Dropped/2008/03/21/82112.html
"Michigan's House starts a two-week break on Friday. The Senate begins its own two-week break at the end of the month, meaning that the legislature can no longer pass a bill authorizing the re-run vote with the required 60 days notice."
Settlement requested Sat 22nd Mar 8:27am PDT by dan_the_omniscient: yep, STILL needs settled.
Settlement requested Sat 5th Apr 9:31am PDT by dan_the_omniscient: http://www.newsmax.com/politics/primary_scramble/2008/04/04/85543.html
"LANSING, Mich. -- Michigan Democrats are not going to hold a do-over presidential primary.

The official decision came Friday in a statement from the state party's executive committee. The state party officials say "it is not practical" to conduct a party-run primary or caucus as a way to get the state's delegates seated at the Democratic National Convention this summer."

its a SHOCKER! NOW can we settle this thing? ;-)
Suspended Tue 8th Apr 7:24am PDT by ryanj[Admin]: This market is suspended while deliberations on settlement occur. To particopate in these deliberations please go here: http://getsatisfaction.com/hubdub/topics/should_this_market_be_settled_politics

Post your opinion please!!
Settlement requested Wed 9th Apr 8:37am PDT by dan_the_omniscient: i heard tell of a settlement?

http://getsatisfaction.com/hubdub/topics/should_this_market_be_settled_politics

Suspend date: Wed 2nd Jul 12:59am PDT Settlement date: Wed 9th Apr 9:15am PDT
more info...

 

Predictions (175)

175 predictions

34 weeks ago
ohmygoodness predicted No (H$100 at 92%)
34 weeks ago
silvermchic predicted No (H$20 at 93%)
34 weeks ago
henrichin predicted No (H$250 at 93%)
34 weeks ago
tertius predicted No (H$100 at 93%)
34 weeks ago
tickle_me_economy predicted Yes (H$100 at 7%)
more

Comments (12)

This is getting ridiculous. The Michigan legislature recessed for 2 WEEKS. They did not agree to a plan before the recess. This does not mean that they won't agree to a plan after recess. These premature settlements are absurd. Using this logic the Super Bowl should have been settled as the Patriots leading because they led in the 4th Quarter.

Quoting the article that is sited in the settlement "The legislature is now on recess for two weeks, and by the time lawmakers return, it will probably be too late to approve and organize a new vote before early June, the deadline established by the national Democratic Party."

So we are now settling questions when it becomes unlikely for an event to occur or someone says it probably won't .

At this point I am am suspending all participation as this now makes by my count 6-7 questions that were clearly settled early on the political board alone. Why don't you settle the Democratic candidate one for Obama, the next President one for McCain while your at it because they currently lead in delegates or polling. Settle PA for Hillary since she leads in the poll there and give Clinton Ohio for Nov because thats what PROBABLY is going to happen based on polling.

This is no longer fun, it has jumped into the realm of the absurd.

posted 36 weeks ago
I agreed with Ryan on settling Florida, but I do think this Q was a little premature. They clearly can't come up with a solution by April 1, so the other Michigan Q I think was fine to settle (even though I lost H!). But I think its premature to say they can't get something done when they come back from recess. I think this one needs to be reopened.
posted 36 weeks ago
  3 ryanj[Admin]
Ok I agree. Settled this a bit premature. I have now reopened the market.

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor
posted 36 weeks ago
Using this logic the Super Bowl should have been settled as the Patriots leading because they led in the 4th Quarter.

Ohhhh... I wish they would!
posted 36 weeks ago
boy, i wish i could get service like this. ive bitched about the very same thing before and all i get is ignored.
posted 36 weeks ago
heh, even the source in the settlement request i made was ignored.

http://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/Mich_Primary_Plan_Dropped/2008/03/21/82112.html
"Michigan's House starts a two-week break on Friday. The Senate begins its own two-week break at the end of the month, meaning that the legislature can no longer pass a bill authorizing the re-run vote with the required 60 days notice."

thats what u get for using cnn. i think al-jazeera might be more reputable.
posted 36 weeks ago
  7 ryanj[Admin]
Hi Dan,

The problem is that different news sources are saying different things. When Florida happened I found no source that said that a possibility of a primary could happen. But the sources that I've seen so far are conflicted some say there is no chance while others say there is a chance, all be it slim. With Michigan I can't see it happening, but it is more unclear than Florida. If it is 99% assured that it won't happen I'll settle.

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor
posted 36 weeks ago
I think you have to leave questions like this suspended or open until the settlement date or closing date for predictions. Even if cnn says there will not be one, there may, in fact, be one later on, before closing date... this question poses "contest" not primary or caucus, and the dems are free to design some sort of "contest" to seat those delegates, and i'm betting that they will develop some "contest" and not just apportion them evenly or disregard michigan altogether....
posted 36 weeks ago
  9 shadowfax
I vote to keep it open an hopin' that Michigan can develop a democratic contest to the effect that theonecalledmichael suggests. Folks up here can get creative when it comes to us being counted.
Then, this gets settled "yes"
hooray cha-ching!
posted 36 weeks ago
http://www.newsmax.com/politics/primary_scramble/2008/04/04/85543.html
"LANSING, Mich. -- Michigan Democrats are not going to hold a do-over presidential primary.

The official decision came Friday in a statement from the state party's executive committee. The state party officials say "it is not practical" to conduct a party-run primary or caucus as a way to get the state's delegates seated at the Democratic National Convention this summer."

its a SHOCKER! NOW can we settle this thing? ;-)
posted 34 weeks ago
Hey all hubdubbers, the admins who control this site want EVERYONE'S input on how to deal with this cheater Satyaki and ALL future gamers ... They are asking for everyone to post their opinions and suggestions for the official rules on this link:
http://getsatisfaction.com/hubdub/topics/proposed_new_procedure_for_dealing_with_gaming?
This ongoing problem stems from this:
http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Why_is_it_that_Satyaki_keeps_creating_Lahore_Badshahs_vs_xyz_team_questions_yet_Donal_doent_void_them_5294/view#newcomment

Here is the LATEST proposal from hubdub admins that they desire our say on:
Admins want a 4 strikes and your out process:
Proposed new procedure for dealing with gaming
Hubdub Representative
To date we have dealt with gaming on a case by case basis. However it has become clear that we need to have a defined process for dealing with individuals that game. Therefore this is our proposed procedure:
1. First identified instance/set of instances: Email warning
2. Second identified instance/set of instances: Email warning, user placed on public watch list (for 2 weeks) and fined 50% of worth
3. Third instance/set of instances: Email warning, user placed on public watch list (for 2 weeks) and fined down to H$1,000
4. Any subsequent instance will result in their ability to create questions removed and potentially suspension of their account.
We propose to apply this procedure for all new instances of gaming however some users are on their first warning and one user is on their second warning.


HOWEVER, several of us users are calling for a MUCH stiffer penalty process and this is our overall latest proposal back to the admins:
We want a 3 strikes you're out process:
1. First identified instance/set of instances: Email warning, user placed on public watch list (for 2 weeks) and fined 50% of worth.
2. Second instance/set of instances: Email warning, user placed on public watch list (for 2 weeks to 30 days) and fined down to H$1,000. AND removal of the gamers' right to create question for a period of time.
3. Any subsequent instance will result in definite, permanent suspension of their account, their IP and all other accounts by the gamer.


Have your say and please add your input at the area the admins have set up for this purpose:
http://getsatisfaction.com/hubdub/topics/proposed_new_procedure_for_dealing_with_gaming?

lucidstates (This user: Is On Strike)
posted 34 weeks ago
  12 ryanj[Admin]
This market is suspended while deliberations on settlement occur. To particopate in these deliberations please go here: http://getsatisfaction.com/hubdub/topics/should_this_market_be_settled_politics

Post your opinion please!!

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor
posted 34 weeks ago

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