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Will NASA be able to establish a habitable Moon Base on the Far Side of the Moon by 2020?

Current forecast: 54% chance
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 54% likely to happen (unchanged in last 1 day)

NASA, the American space agency, has unveiled plans for one of the largest rockets ever built to take a manned mission to the far side of the moon.

It will ferry a mother ship and lunar lander into Earth orbit to link up with a smaller rocket carrying the crew. Once united they will head for the moon where the larger ship will remain in orbit after launching the lunar lander and crew.


Settlement details: As reported by AP, MSNBC, and CNN, as well as other mainstream news organizations

 
Forecast history, %
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Make your prediction!

Yes
54%
No
46%
Activity: H$2,778
Question suspends in 4 weeks

Suspend date: Thu 1st Jan 2009 11:59pm PST (4 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 60%

Action history:

Created Tue 29th Jan 3:25pm PST by ilyah
Edited Tue 26th Feb 1:39pm PST by lesley[Admin]

Suspend date: Thu 1st Jan 2009 11:59pm PST (4 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (25)

25 predictions

1 week ago
rogerkni predicted No (H$400 at 45%)
2 weeks ago
freeze predicted No (H$20 at 44%)
6 weeks ago
neuronexmachina predicted No (H$100 at 45%)
11 weeks ago
skybum predicted No (H$20 at 45%)
12 weeks ago
freeze predicted No (H$100 at 45%)
more

Comments (6)

  1 wijiki
What, the near side of the moon is too easy?
posted 43 weeks ago
This is obviously no (Near side for sure, far side maybe many years later), but I'm not willing to wait until 2020 to cash in!
posted 43 weeks ago
Yes, they will!
And your $H will still be available.
No worries mate.
posted 37 weeks ago
This question seems to be based on this article: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/article742757.ece

As far as I can tell, that article is the only news piece I can find indicating that NASA has current plans to establish a base on the far side of the Moon -- my suspicion is that whoever wrote the article was mistaken or misunderstood something. From what I've read so far, 2020 is only the planned date for crewed exploration. Although permanent bases are in the plans, that's more of a long-term goal.

It should also be mentioned that the far side has the downside of making both emergency and routine communications with Earth drastically more difficult and is only useful for setting up a radio astronomy facility, which is more of a long-term goal.
posted 11 weeks ago
  5 tisha[Admin]
I agree neuronexmachina - I think the odds for 'no' should be a lot higher, except that people don't want their money tied up for 12 years. Wait for the huge spike on Dec 2019!
posted 11 weeks ago
  6 randburg
The event should occur by 2020 (Barbara Walters says that best), BUT, the question suspends in only 5 weeks??

Has somebody been into the MOON-shine again?
posted 1 week ago

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