Created Fri 4th Apr 4:10am PDT by jenniandboys

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Will NASA's Mars Phoenix lander find life on Mars?

Nasa says its Phoenix lander on the surface of Mars has gone silent and is almost certainly dead. Engineers have not heard from the craft since Sunday 2 November when it made a brief communication with Earth.

Phoenix, which landed on the planet's northern plains in May, had been struggling in the increasing cold and dark of an advancing winter.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7721032.stm

Background:

Settlement details: Settle based on reporting from NASA.

"Life" can be present or proof of previous life on Mars.

This question closes on Dec 31 2008. Reports must be released prior to that date.

Will NASA's Mars Phoenix lander find life on Mars?

    Yes

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Forecast history, %

   Zoom in

Settled

	Yes	4%
	No	96%

Activity: H$146,446

Settled as No on Sun 23rd Nov 4:25pm PST

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (4 weeks to go) Settlement date: Sun 23rd Nov 4:25pm PST

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 30%

Action history:

Created Fri 4th Apr 4:10am PDT by jenniandboys

Edited Fri 4th Apr 2:21pm PDT by ryanj

Edited Fri 4th Apr 2:23pm PDT by ryanj

Settlement requested Thu 5th Jun 6:13am PDT by rogi: http://tinyurl.com/6fj5my

The lander will not find life on Mars, as it is not able to do so.

So the correct prediction is "No".

Settlement requested Sat 22nd Nov 11:21am PST by jenniandboys: Satellite is dead, or at least out of commission for the winter.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7721032.stm

Suspended Sat 22nd Nov 1:23pm PST by tisha: checking settlement info

Settled as 'No' Sun 23rd Nov 4:25pm PST by tisha: Nasa says its Phoenix lander on the surface of Mars has gone silent and is almost certainly dead. Engineers have not heard from the craft since Sunday 2 November when it made a brief communication with Earth.

Phoenix, which landed on the planet's northern plains in May, had been struggling in the increasing cold and dark of an advancing winter.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7721032.stm

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Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (4 weeks to go) Settlement date: Sun 23rd Nov 4:25pm PST
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Predictions (354)

354 predictions

3 weeks ago

silvermchic predicted No (H$886 at 96%)

3 weeks ago

nuaetius predicted No (H$100 at 96%)

3 weeks ago

drachenstein predicted No (H$500 at 95%)

3 weeks ago

jenniandboys predicted No (H$10,000 at 92%)

3 weeks ago

oenavigators predicted No (H$200 at 87%)

more

3 weeks ago

silvermchic predicted No (H$886 at 96%)

3 weeks ago

nuaetius predicted No (H$100 at 96%)

3 weeks ago

drachenstein predicted No (H$500 at 95%)

3 weeks ago

jenniandboys predicted No (H$10,000 at 92%)

3 weeks ago

oenavigators predicted No (H$200 at 87%)

3 weeks ago

crackbaby predicted Yes (H$5 at 13%)

3 weeks ago

nocheesie predicted No (H$100 at 87%)

5 weeks ago

biloxibeachboy predicted No (H$20 at 87%)

5 weeks ago

jenniandboys predicted No (H$1,000 at 86%)

5 weeks ago

linx0003 predicted No (H$50 at 86%)

5 weeks ago

firechild predicted No (H$50 at 85%)

7 weeks ago

freeze predicted No (H$20 at 74%)

9 weeks ago

schenz predicted Yes (H$20 at 12%)

9 weeks ago

schenz predicted No (H$100 at 88%)

13 weeks ago

djdeviant predicted Yes (H$50 at 16%)

13 weeks ago

f248parlaycos predicted No (H$20 at 87%)

14 weeks ago

bananaman22 predicted No (H$100 at 87%)

Showing recent public predictions only

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Comments (12)

  1 theonecalledmichael

so now we begin the discussion...

posted 27 weeks ago

  2 jenniandboys

picture suggestion:
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/article74981.ece

posted 26 weeks ago

  3 skipper

ok, what so if it finds proof of past life, even just little one celled organisms, this settles as yes?

posted 25 weeks ago

  4 rogi

It cannot find life on Mars, either past or present, as it is not equipped to do so therefore the answer is "No".

See http://tinyurl.com/6fj5my

"The lander is not equipped to detect life itself. Instead, scientists hope analysis of the soil and ice believed to lie beneath the surface will show whether liquid water once existed on Mars and if the ingredients needed to sustain rudimentary life are present."

posted 25 weeks ago

  5 jenniandboys

So if I had it to do over, I would have made this question a little more specific... They are looking for "organics" though which are considered a requirement for life. If they don't find any organics, it will definitely settle as no. If they do find organics, then we will spend several hours arguing whether that is enough evidence for life itself. I would certainly like to see the discovery of organics settle this question as yes but concede that its an arguable position.

(My 100$ is on no anyway)

posted 25 weeks ago

  6 kruijs

Hey, he could take pictures of Marsians.

posted 25 weeks ago

  7 ryanj

Hi everyone,

I'll keep the market up as you never know what the Rover will find. That article just makes it clear that the odds are very dead set against this.

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub Category Editor

posted 25 weeks ago

  8 cheesenips

The Phoenix found ice today!

posted 23 weeks ago

  9 cognos

The Phoenix confirms water today!
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25954096/

posted 17 weeks ago

  10 orlin

Life on Mars would not be found, this is clear, but POTENTIAL for life on Mars apparently is.
Interesting story from a very respectful and reliable source of information in the aerospace field, Aviation Week: White House Briefed On Potential For Mars Life
http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story.jsp?id=news/WH08018.xml&headline=White%20House%20Briefed%20On%20Potential%20For%20Mars%20Life&channel=space
Have this the potential to solve the question? :)

posted 17 weeks ago

  11 cognos

The question asks if life will be found.
Within the world of Mars explorers, this has been meant to be 'signs that life once existed in the past' or 'we found existing life'.

Recent reports from NASA have indicated that some findings point to 'past life' being very possible because of their findings of water and other compounds that are necessary for life 'as we know it'.

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/phoenix/news/phoenix-20080731.html

"Life is NOT found", if conditions are ripe for future cultivation of the planet.

posted 17 weeks ago

  12 dragonfangxl

Woo hoo lets go on strike! Break out the picket signs and get outside of hubdubs doors! Although since this is an internet site i do see problems with finding the doors...........

posted 11 weeks ago

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