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Will NASA's Mars Phoenix lander find life on Mars?

Current forecast: 15% chance 1%
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 15% likely to happen (down 1% in last 1 day)

The Phoenix is designed to study the Martian polar ice cap. Its looking for evidence for life - past or present. Will it find anything?

A Phoenix landing failure will settle as 'no'.

More Background info: http://www.nasa.gov/missions/solarsystem/phoenix_water.html
 
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Yes
15%
No
85%
Activity: H$120,044
Question suspends in 16 weeks
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: Settle based on reporting from NASA.

"Life" can be present or proof of previous life on Mars.

This question closes on Dec 31 2008. Reports must be released prior to that date.

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (16 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 30%

Action history:

Created Fri 4th Apr 4:10am PDT by jenniandboys[Admin]
Edited Fri 4th Apr 2:21pm PDT by ryanj[Admin]
Edited Fri 4th Apr 2:23pm PDT by ryanj[Admin]
Settlement requested Thu 5th Jun 6:13am PDT by rogi: http://tinyurl.com/6fj5my

The lander will not find life on Mars, as it is not able to do so.

So the correct prediction is "No".
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: Settle based on reporting from NASA. ... read all

 

Predictions (337)

337 predictions

5 days ago
gadget666 predicted No (H$20 at 84%)
5 days ago
djdeviant predicted Yes (H$50 at 16%)
5 days ago
f248parlaycos predicted No (H$20 at 87%)
2 weeks ago
bananaman22 predicted No (H$100 at 87%)
2 weeks ago
nursemommy predicted Yes (H$20 at 13%)
more

Comments (12)

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lucidstates (This user: Is On Strike)
posted 22 weeks ago
so now we begin the discussion...
posted 14 weeks ago
picture suggestion:
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/article74981.ece
posted 14 weeks ago
  4 skipper[Power User]
ok, what so if it finds proof of past life, even just little one celled organisms, this settles as yes?
posted 13 weeks ago
  5 rogi
It cannot find life on Mars, either past or present, as it is not equipped to do so therefore the answer is "No".

See http://tinyurl.com/6fj5my

"The lander is not equipped to detect life itself. Instead, scientists hope analysis of the soil and ice believed to lie beneath the surface will show whether liquid water once existed on Mars and if the ingredients needed to sustain rudimentary life are present."
posted 13 weeks ago
So if I had it to do over, I would have made this question a little more specific... They are looking for "organics" though which are considered a requirement for life. If they don't find any organics, it will definitely settle as no. If they do find organics, then we will spend several hours arguing whether that is enough evidence for life itself. I would certainly like to see the discovery of organics settle this question as yes but concede that its an arguable position.

(My 100$ is on no anyway)
posted 13 weeks ago
  7 kruijs[Power User]
Hey, he could take pictures of Marsians.
posted 13 weeks ago
  8 ryanj[Admin]
Hi everyone,

I'll keep the market up as you never know what the Rover will find. That article just makes it clear that the odds are very dead set against this.

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub Category Editor
posted 13 weeks ago
The Phoenix found ice today!
posted 11 weeks ago
  10 cognos[Power User]
The Phoenix confirms water today!
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25954096/
posted 5 weeks ago
  11 orlin
Life on Mars would not be found, this is clear, but POTENTIAL for life on Mars apparently is.
Interesting story from a very respectful and reliable source of information in the aerospace field, Aviation Week: White House Briefed On Potential For Mars Life
http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story.jsp?id=news/WH08018.xml&headline=White%20House%20Briefed%20On%20Potential%20For%20Mars%20Life&channel=space
Have this the potential to solve the question? :)
posted 5 weeks ago
  12 cognos[Power User]
The question asks if life will be found.
Within the world of Mars explorers, this has been meant to be 'signs that life once existed in the past' or 'we found existing life'.

Recent reports from NASA have indicated that some findings point to 'past life' being very possible because of their findings of water and other compounds that are necessary for life 'as we know it'.

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/phoenix/news/phoenix-20080731.html

"Life is NOT found", if conditions are ripe for future cultivation of the planet.
posted 5 weeks ago

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