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Will NATO take steps to eradicate Afghanistan's 2008 opium poppy crop?

Current forecast: 6% chance
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 6% likely to happen (unchanged in last 1 day)


Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.
eradication to mean biological, chemical, or slash and burn to destroy the crops

 
Forecast history, %
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Yes
6%
No
94%
Activity: H$36,664
Question suspends in 4 weeks

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (4 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 55%

Action history:

Created Sat 8th Mar 2:20pm PST by meanderingsearcher
Clarified Wed 2nd Apr 3:48pm PDT by nigeleccles[Admin]: I think the definition in the settlement details is fairly clear

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (4 weeks to go)
more info...

 

Predictions (38)

38 predictions

18 weeks ago
munirs predicted Yes (H$20 at 42%)
18 weeks ago
robinetbatman predicted No (H$50 at 58%)
19 weeks ago
soproudlywehail predicted No (H$100 at 58%)
19 weeks ago
hoosierdaddy predicted No (H$100 at 58%)
20 weeks ago
verosk8er predicted No (H$100 at 47%)
more

Comments (10)

  1 randburg
Does this question refer to "rhetoric" OR "action"?
posted 38 weeks ago
  2 markov
I believe they have been taking steps to discourage poppy cultivation for quite some time now. They have just been extremely unsuccessful.
posted 38 weeks ago
in the settlement details, "eradicate" (as used in this market) is defined to mean a set of specific actions.
posted 38 weeks ago
i am amazed that nato forces duck for cover in fields of the crops that paid for the weapons that are shooting at them
posted 38 weeks ago
nah, the crops pay for the bullets...WE bought them the guns during the soviet occupation. :D
posted 38 weeks ago
is busy laughing at dan
posted 38 weeks ago
happy to be of amusement. :)
posted 38 weeks ago
  8 mork[Power User]
We're talking about the livelihood of the Afghani people. Attempts to destroy their labors would be NATO's fast track to become sworn enemies on the ground.
posted 23 weeks ago
  9 dieseldog
some forces have been "eradacating" the poppy crops for awhile. don't know if their "NATO" troops. if they give them another crop to grow-another way to make money they should be ok.
posted 23 weeks ago
  10 mork[Power User]
hemp seems like a logical option but we all know that's not going to happen.
posted 23 weeks ago

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