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Will North Carolina be hit by a Hurricane in 2008?

Current forecast: 52% chance
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 52% likely to happen (unchanged in last 1 day)

The last time North Carolina was struck by a Hurricane was in 2005. Over the years though North Carolina has been routinely hit by Hurricanes, 2 in 2004, 2 in 1996 and 3 in 1955. Only a small amount of these storms have been Category 2's or lower, so North Carolina routinely gets hit hard.

From the North Carolina Weather Department:
"North Carolina has a long and notorious history of destruction by hurricanes. Ever since the first expeditions to Roanoke Island in 1586, hurricanes are recorded to have caused tremendous damage to the state. Reliable classification of the intensity of tropical cyclones began in 1886. Since that time, there have been 951 tropical cyclones that have been recorded in the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico. Approximately 166 or 17.5% of those tropical cyclones passed within 300 miles of North Carolina. Table 1 contains the number and percentage of tropical storms and hurricanes that made landfall in North Carolina or made landfall in another state and later passed through North Carolina. The coast of North Carolina can expect to receive a tropical storm or a hurricane once every four years, while a tropical cyclone affects the state every 1.3 years."
 
Forecast history, %
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Yes
52%
No
48%
Activity: H$18,915
Question suspends in 13 weeks
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source. To be considered hit, landfall must occur.

Suspend date: Sun 30th Nov 7:59am PST (13 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

Created Fri 28th Mar 8:09am PDT by lmp0615
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source. To be considered hit, landfall must occur.... read all

 

Predictions (41)

41 predictions

3 days ago
onedave predicted No (H$20 at 48%)
3 days ago
infernalmachine[Admin] predicted Yes (H$300 at 52%)
1 week ago
pixelpaws predicted No (H$200 at 49%)
1 week ago
lcsnor predicted No (H$50 at 48%)
2 weeks ago
rbrog77 predicted Yes (H$20 at 52%)
more

Comments (2)

Hit as in make landfall, scrape it from offshore, pass over NC as a hurricane, but only after landfall in another state? we need clarification...
posted 21 weeks ago
suggest: make initial continental US landfall on NC coast, while still classified as a Named Hurricane, with winds in excess of 74mph, making it a Type 1 Hurricane.
posted 21 weeks ago

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