Will Obama drop out of the race before 30th April ?

Hi guys,

I've received flags for this market regarding the possibility of it being a gaming market. After overlooking and the date on which it ends, I'm going to let it stay. The market ends after the Penn. primary, so I can see why the odds are where they are. They are still a bit high, but not high enough to justify a void. If it had been over 50% it would have been a straight away void. Hope this clears it up.

A note to xtreme_guy: I've noticed some of your markets and the unlikely odds sometimes used, so don't think I ain't watching you....

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor

a month is an eternity in politics.

and for 18% not really worth betting on.... esp. when we have spitzer and the Dow

If he does, where would he go?

drop out are u serious? the only way he would be out is if he lost... that means kicked out... this question sucks

He leads in pledged delegates, leads in total delegates, leads in the polls nationally, is expected to lose pa, and holds lead in north carolina. Does anyone really expect him to drop out, how is this not at 99%.

apparently there are some who do not 'fully' understand American Politics.

And yet the Clinton poll is at 97%.. don't get it, but I'll take the free H$

I am with you jenni, I am staked huge in this market.

I have got 44k in this, but I am going to make over 16k when it is settled, just a long way til then. I might cash out some positions as this moves in the high 90's where it should be.

There must be gaming going on, to move markets this wildly with so much money it in.

I've got 1000 in which is 20% of my h$, although a paltry sum compared to your 44k :)

hi guys and gals.
i'm watching even more closely, and getting in just before 'they' start the 'crazy' cycle.
i'm making money on both ends. hehe

who really thinks he's going to drop out...if you don't count the superdelegates(considering they don't vote till the convention and both candidates are sniping the other's) neither obama nor clinton can win even if one of them takes every single delegate still out...the only possible way would be for michigan or florida to have revotes which is iffy....this one's going to the convention

i think someone's just swinging this Q like they do the stock market Q's

michigan, florida, or not, this one is not going to the convention, sry.
in many other comments, i've said that there will be a 'brokered solution'. The only question now is which way it will go. imho

http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Who_will_be_the_next_President_of_the_US_2047/View is going nuts.. obama and mccain have both been below 10% and then back to 40% a minute later... anyone want to come play?

(pics isn't the volume too high for one person to swing it?)

i dunno...i seriously doubt obama will step aside and accept vice president..maybe hillary will, but i really don't see either one of them accepting that, i think they'll make the superd's decide....with 566 delegates in the states still to vote, the highest total is obama with 1418 according to nytimes...2024 is required

i doubt it...my 500 bet moved it 5%...with 2k-3k bets at a time it would be relatively easy

it would require some other people yes, but this seems strange to me...alot of the markets have been doing this lately actually...on the stock market Q's just about every day i notice that at 10-15 minutes before close someone will buy in alot on some position that definitely won't win, this makes all the others go way down and you can end up making more then you lose on the bad bet

maybe one of the leaders just think he's gunna drop out and is betting a ton on it...it just seems strange to me tho

also, that activity is not what is in the market total...it's a running total of all the money that has been put in and withdrawn...it's like a volume number, not a value of money in the market right now

good point, didn't think of that.

calm down everybody. nothing wrong with the software. comment#21 is accurate, but not the 'dropping out' part.
nothing wrong with a 'little inside info', is there?

Obama claims clear judgement, except while he's in this church. His Pastor, has been repeating the themes aluded to in Obama's speech about race for quite some time now (reportedly over 5 years). He also repeated many other inflamatory themes as has been reported in the mainstream press.
His Pastor's "discussions" of race aren't nearly as inflamatory as his other "discussions" (or as Obama puts it "the ramblins of an ol' uncle".
No, the time is now to decide who will wear the Democratic Banner going into this year's elections. While both candidates have 'issues', Obama's self-described 'strengths' have taken a huge hit.
Their is some 'unreasonable' talk coming out of some corners of an 'uprising' should Obama NOT be nominated. The 'talk' is not of a unified pro-Obama party, but of a more sinister 'racist' uprising. That is a bunch of crap. Obama is going to put on a brave face for now, but before the end of April, look for a 'brokered solution'. Maybe the DNC Chair or some high-level adminstration post. Perhaps an ambassadorship to Kenya!

That speech ... did him in.

Jersjustrolling you posted a very determined position on the pentagon shooting down the satellite as well, it turned out to be completely wrong. I love the fact that people are pouring money into the other side, it is helping me get better odds on an all but certain market. There could be no better market to put money for a guaranteed return.
Nothing will be determined before the primaries in Indiana and North Carolina.
If something odd happened and Hillary lost big in PA, which I don't think is going to happen, she might drop out, but that is not likely to happen.
The only downside is that my positions are undervalued and my net worth isn't what it really is, but that is price you pay. I like being able to put alot of money on question like this, otherwise the cash was going to just sit there and not generate any money. I still got twenty thousand to play with in meantime.

jers - you've got it SO wrong. That speech is going to be heralded by so many people (who will cling to it as a possible beggining of the end to racial tension) that it'll be a big part of his victory.

Sure, quotes of the Minister's speeches will knock him down a peg for the next while, but safe bet is on the guy who has more delegates, AND draws people to politics and the polls.

I'll argue you with my dollars and bet on Obama.

I agree with destry. My cash is being let lose tonight!

you point out a position i lost. there have been others.
the value of my long-term holdings have been undervalued for quite some time now. (i used to take many $H5K positions.)

"otherwise the cash was going to just sit there and not generate any money"

why do you think I'm taking the position I am. got some good info that i've not shared with hubdub. and i'm running with it. so, see ya on the leaderboard come April 30th, or not.

maybe i lose, maybe i don't.

And that speech is being hailed as great by many democrats and nothing will convince republicans. Hillary and her first lady schedule are very bad news for her. Shows how little her "experience" is with those causes she is claiming 8 years of white house experience with. Introducing someone at a luncheon is not economic experience.
Barack is going to be the nominee. He has majority of delegates (pledged), has the total lead (pledged plus super), and has North Carolina coming up which is a easy win for him. Here is what I think is interesting, last night on a program Carol King was on, and she is huge Hillary supporter, but when asked about her choice of candidates, she said I support Hillary, but will back Obama. I think democrats see that Barack is going to be nearly impossible for McCain to defeat in the fall. Less people hate Obama than hate Hillary, that is why republican talking heads are wanting Hillary to be opponent.

"she said I support Hillary, but will back Obama"

come on, more dems say and believe that!

you're not going to draw me into another argument.
place your $H where your .... is.

Are we to believe that you have information about the withdrawal of the leading Democratic candidate that the rest of the world doesn't know. Are you friends with Barack? I have about 50k in this question, trust me my money is where my mouth is.
With inside information like you claim to possess, you should be able to make a killing in the world markets on presidential race. Can you tell me who wins in November so I dont have to worry about it. Did that source tell you anything about Jesus returning to earth (think I can get good odds if we know when that is going to happen).

hey jerry if u really think obama's gunna drop out this other one will make u more money http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Who_will_drop_out_of_the_2008_democratic_race_first_Hillary_Clinton_or_Barack_Obama_3715

Obama is going to be the nom. unless he does something REALLY stupid. I'm socking in a pile of cash this evening, but I'm taking my time as folks keep betting on Hillary and Obama quitting.

In a memo to the State Department made public by the White House, Bush said: "I hereby find that the furnishing of defense articles and defense services to Kosovo will strengthen the security of the United States and promote world peace.".....wow, how out of touch is this guy?

Well I have been cashing in less profitable positions to move money in here as well. I even made a few of them public so there was proof I had put my money where my mouth is. I expect this question be in high 90's in next couple days so good chance to buy in now and ride the wave.

Destry - I agree. There's no way that Obama bails. Even if he loses battles in remaining states, he has the arguement that the super delegates will overwhelmingly support him based on popular vote. He's the front runner reagrdless of how you view his race speech. Easy money, the market will get bthis to 90% ASAP.

Well all the pundits are saying speech was good. He is expected to lose in PA, so a loss there won't change the overall delegate position he will still be winning but maybe by a few less. The democrats don't have winner take all. She would have to win 70%+ in all the remaining states to overtake his delegate count. Barack has the money, the votes, the delegates, and the momentum to take this through at least June.
I heard talk today of bringing the super delegates together after the last primary in June and getting them to committ, so the democrats would have a good idea of who is going to be up against McCain and not let those 3 months from June til September go by with no front runner.

"Are we to believe that you have information about the withdrawal of the leading Democratic candidate that the rest of the world doesn't know."

let's just say that I'm two heartbeats away from one of the true power brokers in DC. So, I'm not "justtrolling" on this topic.

Obama is simply not electable at this time. sry Destry, bcguelph, others.

"Well all the pundits are saying speech was good." - what else could they say? Obama is a great orator.
The Dems can not wait until June to circle the wagons. Howard (DNC Chr) has indicated that that DNC would prefer "it" be over by May.

"I heard talk today of bringing the super delegates together after the last primary in June and getting them to committ, so the democrats would have a good idea of who is going to be up against McCain." - see, you still don't have a 'good idea' of who is going to go up against McCain.

It just makes me wonder why that power broker in DC didn't tell you they were shooting down the satellite. You were so outspoken and certain. Was this source wrong. There is no power broker in Washington that would know this information, nor would anyone that is two heartbeats away from them, have the time to post on a website. I simply don't believe your source on this one. But please keep pouring your money into this question, I would love to see you slide down leaderboard, and by the way I made my predictions public on this question, shouldn't you do the same so we can see you are really putting money on this question.

Of course Howard (I guess it makes you sound important to call him by his first name) Dean would prefer it over. He would have prefered it over on Super Tuesday. It is interesting that you wagered $100 dollars on this question and also wagered $100 that Hillary would drop out. You got worse odds on the Hillary question. I really hope you aren't trying to suggest Howard as you call him, is who you are two heartbeats away from (I wouldn't get that close he is capable of going off and injuring those around him at any moment). I wholeheartedly believe that Obama will be the nominee. I don't believe the superdelegates are going to go against the will of the people who have given Obama more pledged delegates. I really think that if Hillary wins PA with a 60-40 margin and that doesn't give her enough delegates to switch momentum. Then there is North Carolina where she isn't close in polls.
Looking at the big picture it would be more worthwhile for the Democratic party for Hillary to get out of race, save what little political capital she hasn't spent, and lobby for a VP role. That would set her up for a future run at the White house or at least get Team Clinton back near the white house.

OY

@destry
the 'contact' in DC ...
does not let on to everything that's going on, of course. be real.
is not H Dean.
does not contact me regularly. i'm not in their contact mgmt db. two heartbeats, means two, not one.

when i wagered $H100 on both hillary and obama dropping out, that was 'the talk around town'. one of them 'had to drop out'.

now, the conditions on the ground have changed.

i'm not going to share any details, just the 'gist' of what i'm hearing. and yes, it could be just talk, and i could be totally wrong. or i could just be BS-ing you and everybody on hubdub.

i did not use the full name (Howard Dean) to sound important. I wanted it to be clear who I was talking about. Please calm down.

As far as being ' so outspoken and certain ', look in the mirror. After all, without degrees of certainty, what use would a news prognosticating website have?

I'm so sorry for not making my $H positions public. To those who are interested, I've made 'some' public.

@jersjusttrolling - this is probably the best quote you have ever given "i could just be BS-ing you and everybody on hubdub".
Of course the talk around town was that one of them had to drop out, my god, that has been suggested on every single news show in the world. But in February they raised a combined 85 million dollars, they are dumping a million a day into the PA economy, and trust me North Carolina would like to see some money dumped there too.

@destry
you're at it again.

consistently tangling 'closely related' but not 'fully related' issues.
for example:
NC wanting the money has nothing at all to do with who or when a candidate will drop out.

in addition:
'what happened in February' does not equal 'what is happening now'.

Anytime that anybody has something to contribute, you bad talk them. You've done it to me, you've done it to others. You point out correctly that I've lost a few big market wagers, even though I had full confidence of the outcome.

Yet, I'm still above you on the Top 5 Political Leaderboard by 80%. And when the rescaling is complete, I'll still be above you there, and on the Overall.

And if you're going to quote me, please include the entire quote so that others won't take my comment out-of-context, like you so readily do.

Well jersjustrolling upon last look on the leaderboard I had closed the gap to just a few hundred dollars. You are right if they rescale you will be ahead of me, because I will simply not be playing. I am not trying to sound more important than I am, I am not bragging about having inside information the rest of the world doesn't know, being two heartbeats away from the top power broker in DC, these are just attempts to feel important, I am not sure.
I call a spade a spade, if someone makes a stupid statement I will say it is stupid, I also can take it, if I say something stupid feel free to point it out. I enjoy the back and forth of most of the people on Hubdub.

again destry, twisting some words, distorting others.

I did not say 'THE' top power broker. I was not 'bragging'. I have no need to feel important to hubdubbers.

I enjoy the hubdub community, plain and simple. No agendas. I will not be ahead of you because you will simply not be playing, as you say. I will remain ahead of you because I am simply a better prognositcator than you are. Continously calling other hubdubber statements stupid, makes you look uneducated.

As you say 'I enjoy the back and forth of most of the people on Hubdub', but not those who have a contrary view of the world.

Never thought I do this, but I just 'unfriended' a fellow hubdubber. It did not feel good at all.

I bow down to your excellence. Your statement was "let's just say that I'm two heartbeats away from one of the true power brokers in DC". You are truly a master prognosticator than me, I am amazed you are not well over 1 million hubdub dollars, I am sure you will be soon. Again I salute your excellence, feel worthy you still find the time to read my comments, and reply. Thank you.

i said 'one of the true', not 'the top'. that was my msg to you. distorting.
i may read your comments from time to time, but this is the last response you'll see from me.

Updated leaderboard, destry 5th, jersjusttrolling 6th. Does that mean I am better than you?

I could make a joke about how user conflicts at Hubdub are like the Palestinian peace process, but that would be morbid :-)

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor

Jersjusttrolling - Richardson is going to endorse Obama today. There goes Clinton's latino support! And, there goes a potential VP for her. Her ship is sinking.

y is everybody getting so worked up..haven't u guys learned by now this will probably be voided anyway..someone will say whos obama..drop out of what race..horse, car, marathon..its not specific..then there will b a thread etc...:)

i understand your frustration crudsy. I agree with you about the arg poll question. Next time I see ryan on I will send him a request to void it.

@ crudsy -- literally LOL !

except for one thing, crudsy: the news keywords provide proper context for the question, and nowhere is there any news about a horserace and obama

Yeah I might have to void this :-)

What race are you guys talking about? The market is incorrectly worded, technically the "race" is a "nomination process..." Have to be clearer when creating markets......

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor

he's only in one race, really: the race for president. If he quits his nomination bid, then he quits the race for the white house. UNLESS he runs as a third party candidate, which is very very unlikely...

What? Presidential race?? I thought he was training for the New Jersey marathon?? Definitely have to void.

:)

I hear he dropped out of the Boston Marathon race. lol -)
Everyone put your money on yes, i guess.
Disclaimer: It will give me a chance to put more money on NO

cnn ...

The letter comes one day after Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid seemed to suggest Democratic leaders were in the process of working out a deal to ensure the party's nomination fight does not go all the way to the convention.

"Things are being done," Reid told the Las Vegas Review-Journal.

thats interesting jers...

as for me, I would say that this is such a long way off that anyone could be out by the end of it... I just have to take those odds for a small yes bet!

Interesting facts. Clinton leads in the polls by some say up to 15% in PA. In order to overtake Obama in the total pledged delegates would have to win by a margin of 65-35 in all the remaining states. She is behind in North Carolina. She has raised less money from fewer contributors than Obama. She would have to win by over 600,000 votes in PA to get ahead in the popular vote total. She would also need the Michigan and Florida delegates to be awarded to her by those same margins above, and Harry Reid himself said they shouldn't be able to vote at the convention. He said it was okay to invite them, but they violated the DNC rules. With all that going against her, and her expected win in PA, there is no reason Obama would drop out by April 30th. There are contests on May 6th, 13th, and then early part of June that all favor him. If one of the two candidates were to drop out it would be Hillary if she won by less than expected in PA, was showing bad in the polls in NC, WV, Indiana. Howard Dean is no friend of the Clintons, and Bill Richardson wouldn't endorse a candidate if there was talk inside the party of that candidate dropping out.
I simply can't believe that Obama and his support, his ability to bounce back from the outlandish remarks by his former pastor, and with so much money would simply give up the bid to be the nominee when it looks like he will end up with the most pledged delegates, is leading in total of delegates, and has lower unfavorable numbers to the general election. The republicans would love to see Hillary in the race in the fall, nothing can rally a party like a common enemy. It won't be so much about voting for McCain as it is voting against Hillary. I have staked a large fortune on this question and if I am wrong, I will gladly take my hit, give the proper congrats to Jersjustrolling, and move on to fight another day.

@destry
thank you for your analysis. it does fit the mainstream view.
like you, i have staked a large fortune on the outcome of this question, however, as you know, i've been on the opposite side of the market from you and obama.
it does seem that time is against hillary. and of course, i'm not SURE of any future outcome.
anything goes in American Politics. What is so great about our society is that we can have outbursts, (like you and I have had), and not have fear of being physically hurt or "disappeared". And then, when the votes are casts, and the smoke settles, we are all once again, civil towards each other.

Well jersjustrolling I will accept your olive branch of peace. I know you have a large position on this question, I was playing with it and was watching your net worth fluxuate greatly. I think this would be a whole new type of question if it would have been mid May as the date, if Obama loses PA (which is expected), loses Indiana (which is still up in air), and loses North Carolina and Guam which he should win easily, then that would be a wild swing in momentum. I know that alot of the political insiders want this primary to end sooner rather than later, I just wonder if it is the Clintons trying to regain the upper hand in the Democratic party by making Howard Dean look stupid for having a convention with a huge proxy fight. I would like to know what you think about the idea of a super-delegate primary in mid June so the democrats can figure out thier candidate before the convention. The conventions are so late in the election cycle now days, a prolonged fight for nominee would take months of campaigning away from their party.
I read something today that there was talk of Al Gore stepping back in the fold and asking the superdelegates to not vote in round 1 of the convention, and then put himself forward, with Obama as VP. I think that is a bunch of hubdub, but I think it shows how crazy the party is over this issue. Did you see what Bill Nelson proposed today, I mean please. Michigan and Florida knew that by moving up the primary they were going to lose the delegates, the National Party knew that Florida and Michigan are powerhouse states, and should have let them move up thier primary. The DNC has done nothing but try to screw this up.
And for the rest of you out there, want a sure wager, look for the question about Obama and pledged delegates. The no option has great odds to make some good money on an incredibly safe wager.

There truly needs to be some brokered solution. What that solution is, or how it is structured, is way beyond me. Every Dem I talk to has grown bitter these last two weeks, whether they are Obama or Hillary supporters. In any case, they say, we got to pick one at get the nomination over with.
In mosts cases, they're telling me that they will either sit out the general election, or vote for McCain, if 'their candidate', isn't the one. This is why it is really essential for there to be a clear candidate very soon, while trying to work a miracle to rekindle some sort of cohesion from both camps.
jmho

and thanks destry for your re-friendship.

btw, IF (big if), Hillary does become the nominee (and yes, that seems to be a long shot at this point), I stand to make a hubfortune! I've got about $H70k bet on this one market alone. Plus I'd venture to say about $H30k on associated markets.

another btw,
I was #1 on the politics leaderboard before I started voting on this market.
Now, the leaderboard tells me I'm in the bottom 20%, and my political 'value' is in the red (-$H200).

Again, that's either commitment, loyalty, or foolishness. But it is also called putting ones $H where ones Hubdub mouth is. ;D

I have about 60k in this question, another 25k in related questions.

@destry
Well, one of us is going to be a hubdubillionaire!

@destry
And one of us will have to jump of the roof at Hubdub HQ after losing so much. I've already lost the 'value', so my standings have already been whacked, and quite possibly my hubdubface. So, a loss here wouldn't truly upset me as much as far as $H are concerned, but I'd be takin' a huge hit on my political credibility, and of course, my 'feelins'. :(
but, on the other hand, if hillary were to pull it off, with the odds i've been gettin', I dunno. might just beat crudsy with this one market alone. now, that would be a really cool payoff.
go go hillary!

This is an intersting situation. The question asks whether Barack will drop out, as reported by a mainstream news source, well aren't all the news sources reporting that he wont? Are we wagering on what the news is going to report, or what is really going to happen? This site is billed as a news forecasting site, we are forecasting what the news will report. We are not forecasting the accuracy of the news.

interesting parsing of an important term for hubdubbers. I think the wording may need some re-thinking, if we are predicting the outcome of events, as opposed to what 'mainstream news' reports.

on the other hand,
Hubdub has been claiming the 'News Prediction Market' as their Mantle. I think the matter can be resolved with a simple clarification in the Help section.

I still think Obama will drop out 'in reality', and mainstream news will report it.

;D

"two heartbeats, means two, not one." I think your comment a week ago re your Washington source (or should I say 'sauce'?) jersjusttrolling is very romantic, and must be code describing the domestic situation between you and destry. You people sharing an apartment and IMing each when dinner is ready? Is this a huge gaming gambit?

All questions are settled via a mainstream news source. This isn't because your predicting if the mainstream media will report the story, but because you need reliable sources to settle questions that your predicting on.

Regards,

Ryan
Hubdub US Politics Content Editor

@gingerboi

not in the least. couldn't be further from the truth.
destry and I have had some heated words on this issue. I believe destry lives in FL. I, in TX.

destry seems to be a witty, articulate, passionate person, yes, and again yes, a person I wouldn't mind attending a dinner with, as long as politics doesn't spoil the meal. ;0

"two heartbeats, means two, not one" is not a romatic statement, or code, as you suggest.

What it means is ...

I personally know someone, (one heartbeat), who knows the source (two heartbeats).

used quite frequently on the DC scene.

Have I been clear?

Two heartbeats is like the old game of telephone you would play as a kid. The message starts at one end of the line of people and by the time it gets to other it is changed. For example, "Obama is going to be impossible to beat", by the time it gets to end of line "Obama is going to drop out of race". It wasn't accurate then and isn't accurate now.
I think what you see is that most people tell you there are two topics that shouldn't be discussed amongst strangers, politics and religion. I think people who are intelligent can understand the other side of an argument and appreciate if someone is making intelligent points, even if they don't agree with them. I would rather have a discussion with someone who doesn't think like I do in an intelligent manner, than a conversation with someone who doesn't have a clue.

@gingerboi
see!

two persons with as opposing views as destry and i have, simply could not share ANY domestic arrangement, but we CAN continue to push each other around on this site, without fear of reprisal in any form other than words.

but!, destry does slay me quite often! :D

@JJT, @destry, I stand corrected! I saw romance where there was none - and it's not the first time! I'm sure JJT you'll slay us all if your source is correct - Intrade has Obama at a whopping 80.7% to be the next presidential nominee.. but I'll have a punt for sure on Obama dropping out. Let's see where the cards fall.

At first glance I

At fist glance I thought it was Tina Turner in the pic.

Mork and Destry have pledged to NOT play this game any further until a satisfactory conclusion is made concerning Satyaki's cheating ... PLEASE follow this link and ask ALL of your (friends) to use these links to send hubdub's admins a huge protest over this unethical situation!

Please go to these links and post a protest as well and HELP the HubDub Community regain it's integrity!
http://www.hubdub.com/public/contact
^ There's an email form on that page ^
Post your decision at:
http://getsatisfaction.com/hubdub/topics/i_am_on_strike

lucidstates (dismayed)

It is funny to read some of the Satyaki related messages (above) now that the dust has settled.

He's still on the leaderboard - which is pretty funny if you ask me. I wonder if his selections are still alive, and he'll contunue making H$ as his predictions come true!! Hillarious.

I also wonder if he's now able to play Hubdub using a new account.

Destry:

"I think what you see is that most people tell you there are two topics that shouldn't be discussed amongst strangers, politics and religion."

Odd, I refuse to talk about those things with my friends either!