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All questions » Politics » US Politics » ryanj 
Will Osama Bin Laden be found dead or alive before 2009?
Current forecast: 4% chance 
6%
6%
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 4% likely to happen (down 6% in last 1 day)
Bin Laden has been on the run for a fairly long time. Currently believed to be hiding in Pakistan, he is the head of Al-qaeda.
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
Make your prediction!
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Activity: H$33,179
Question suspends in 6 weeks
Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (6 weeks to go)
Initial likelihoods: Yes: 40%
Action history:
Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (6 weeks to go)
more info...
Get widget!Predictions (62)
62 predictions
keyeshoveden
phoo
pita_soup
gonzonson2051
icemonkey
onedave![[Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif "This user is a super user"){kind=icon}
predicted No (H$20 at 86%)
jhouseholderComments (1)
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score: 10
Reuters India 2 days ago
Kandahar, rather than the capital Kabul, for five years. In 2001 his refusal to surrender the fugitive Osama bin Laden to the United States led to U.S-backed attacks that toppled the Taliban. * Accused by the U.S Department of State of sheltering bin
score: 10
Christian Science Monitor 4 days ago
security,' Director Michael Hayden said in a speech Thursday. Though nominally still in charge of Al Qaeda, Osama bin Laden is 'largely isolated' from the group and is focused on protecting himself, according to the head of the CIA. CNN reports that in a
score: 10
Mail Online UK 4 days ago
Africa,' General Hayden said. George Bush has ordered the hunt for Bin Laden, the world's most wanted terrorist, to be stepped-up in a bid to kill or capture him before he hands over the presidency to Barack Obama in January. The general said the terror
score: 10
News24.com 5 days ago
September 11, 2001 attacks on the United States. Uhrlau, who has headed the BND since 2005, said Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda had suffered serious setbacks in the past few years, making it questionable whether the group was still capable of staging attacks
score: 10
CBS News 5 days ago
Osama bin Laden is isolated from the day-to-day operations of al Qaeda but the terrorist organization he built is spreading its influence in Africa and the Middle East, CIA director Michael Hayden
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