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Will Punxsutawney Phil see his shadow on Groundhog's Day?

Settled as Yes

6 more weeks of winter if the groundhog sees his shadow!
 
% chance over time
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Settled

Yes
55%
No
45%
Activity: H$14,796
Settled as Yes on Sat 2nd Feb 5:26am PST
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by http://www.groundhog.org/ or any of the news media covering the event.


SETTLEMENT NOTES:
http://archives.cnn.com/2001/US/02/02/groundhog.day.01/index.html
UNSETTLED:

SETTLEMENT NOTES:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/usnw/20080202/pl_usnw/punxsutawney_phil_s2008_prediction__more_cold_weather_ahead


Suspend date: Sat 2nd Feb 6:55am PST

Settlement date: Sat 2nd Feb 5:26am PST

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 45%

Action history:
Created Mon 28th Jan 1:21pm PST by nappy
Settled Sat 2nd Feb 5:26am PST
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by http://www.groundhog.org/ or any of the news media covering the event. ... read all

 
24 weeks ago
kinad predicted No (H$50)
24 weeks ago
red71 predicted Yes (H$100)
24 weeks ago
fryender predicted Yes (H$20)
24 weeks ago
goatboy predicted No (H$100)
24 weeks ago
itoshi predicted No (H$100)
24 weeks ago
cplotter predicted Yes (H$50)
24 weeks ago
brianholmes predicted No (H$50)
24 weeks ago
Erik predicted Yes (H$50)
24 weeks ago
electroaffinity predicted No (H$100)
24 weeks ago
peter_van_nostrand predicted No (H$100)
  1 diana
This is a great question! I know if I bet on this one I'll probably get it completely incorrect!
posted 25 weeks ago
  2 cjhanks
Got to go with the odds... Phil has only missed seeing his shadow 13% of the time.
posted 25 weeks ago
  3 shadowfax
Will Punxsutawney Phil See His Shadow?
Sportsbook.com lets Americans bet on Groundhog Day outcome.

PUNXSUTAWNEY, PA, Jan. 26 /PRNewswire/For one day every winter the
eyes of the nation turn their attention to a small rodent in a small town
called Punxsutawney...Since 1887,the groundhog has seen his shadow an
incredible 95 times out of 118, including six years running. Groundhog Day Odds
Phil sees his shadow: 1-3
Phil does not see his shadow: 11-5
but it still always feels like a coin toss to me!

posted 24 weeks ago
Forecast is for partly cloudy, but overcast overnight... I'm going with 100 on no... :)
posted 24 weeks ago
  5 dollars
you should weigh in on the question @ getsatisfaction by clicking help then the getsatisfaction link the question there is:

"Should Hubdub insiders who settle questions be allowed to make predictions?

To date, Hubdub staff who settle questions have also participated in making predictions on those and other questions. We have strived to be as objective as possible on every settlement and settlements are regularly cross-checked. However some users perceive that this conflict of interest may cause us to incorrectly settle questions for our benefit. We can change the rules to:
(1) No restriction (status quo)
(2) No predicting on questions within their category
(3) No predicting on any questions

Thoughts?
posted 24 weeks ago
  6 shadowfax
Phil Says Six More Weeks of Winter!
Phil's official forecast as read 2/2/08 at sunrise at Gobbler's Knob:

Here Ye! Here Ye! Here Ye!

On Gobbler's Knob on this fabolous Groundhog Day, February 2nd, 2008
Punxsutawney Phil, the Seer of Seers, Prognosticator of all Prognosticators,
Rose to the call of President Bill Cooper and greeted his handlers, Ben Hughes and John Griffiths.

After casting a weathered eye toward thousands of his faithful followers,
Phil consulted with President Cooper and directed him to the appropriate scroll, which proclaimed:

"As I look around me, a bright sky I see, and a shadow beside me.
Six more weeks of winter it will be!"
posted 24 weeks ago

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