Created Sun 24th Feb 2:12pm PST by 
zaratustra
All questions » Politics » US Election 2008 » zaratustra 
Will Ralph Nader's participation in the presidential election cause the Dem's to lose the pop. vote?
Current forecast: 18% chance 
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 18% likely to happen (unchanged in last 1 day)
Will the Democratic Party lose the popular vote -and- would it have won if it had the votes that went for Nader?
Make your prediction!
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Yes |
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No |
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Activity: H$3,804
Question suspends in 9 weeks
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.
Settlement details:
As reported by a major mainstream news source.
So everyone is clear. When settlement occurs if the votes which went to Nader are added onto the Democratic popular vote and give the Democrats a lead in the popular vote this will be settled as a yes. It will be settled as a no if the above does not occur or if the Democrats win.
Suspend date: Mon 3rd Nov 11:59pm PST (9 weeks to go)
Initial likelihoods:
Yes: 20%
Action history:
Created Sun 24th Feb 2:12pm PST by zaratustra
zaratustra
Edited Mon 25th Feb 3:40am PST by 
ryanj![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin")
ryanj
Clarified Mon 25th Feb 3:45am PST by ryanj: So everyone is clear. When settlement occurs if the votes which went to Nader are added onto the Democratic popular vote and give the Democrats a lead in the popular vote this will be settled as a yes. It will be settled as a no if the above does not occur or if the Democrats win.
ryanj: So everyone is clear. When settlement occurs if the votes which went to Nader are added onto the Democratic popular vote and give the Democrats a lead in the popular vote this will be settled as a yes. It will be settled as a no if the above does not occur or if the Democrats win.
Edited Mon 25th Feb 3:46am PST by ryanj
ryanj
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.
Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source. ... read all
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score: 10
Huliq.com 5 days ago
polls, Obama's spread over Republican Candidate John McCain widened by an average of more than 3 percent when Nader and Libertarian Presidential Candidate Bob Barr were included on the menu of choices. By conventional wisdom, this would make sense if
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Ryan
Hubdub U.S. Politics Content Editor
Ryan
Hubdub U.S. Politics Content Editor
AnAverageAmerican makes a compelling argument -- as, at the end of the day, the only thing that really matters is the electoral vote -- except for MD (and hopefully other states in the future).
If the democrats were to lose (or even if they win), I don't think it would be difficult to settle this market (with a definitive answer about the effect of Nader, based on electoral votes) ... my sense is that MSNBC, CNN, NYT and others would be ALL OVER that story, and have the analysis available *almost immediately*.
As an aside, there probably ought be an update made to the "Politics Question Rules" to specify which vote (electoral or popular) is the "default" to cover new questions moving into the US general election.
My cent-cent worth = )
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