zaratustra
Will Ralph Nader's participation in the presidential election cause the Dem's to lose the pop. vote?
Settlement details:As reported by a major mainstream news source.
So everyone is clear. When settlement occurs if the votes which went to Nader are added onto the Democratic popular vote and give the Democrats a lead in the popular vote this will be settled as a yes. It will be settled as a no if the above does not occur or if the Democrats win.
| Yes |
| |||
| No |
|
- Activity: H$26,976 |
- Predictions: 22 |
Comments: 9
Suspend date: Mon 3rd Nov 2008 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Tue 4th Nov 2008 9:42pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 3rd Nov 2008 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled
Initial likelihoods: Yes: 20%
Action history:
zaratustra 
ryanj
ryanj: So everyone is clear. When settlement occurs if the votes which went to Nader are added onto the Democratic popular vote and give the Democrats a lead in the popular vote this will be settled as a yes. It will be settled as a no if the above does not occur or if the Democrats win.
ryanj 
newswrangler![[Power User]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_superuser.gif "This user is a super user"){kind=icon}
: Winning prediction = "No"
The Democrats won the popular vote.
destry![[Admin]](http://www.hubdub.com/images/icon_admin.gif "This user is an admin"){kind=icon}
Suspend date: Mon 3rd Nov 2008 11:59pm PST
Settlement date: Tue 4th Nov 2008 9:42pm PST
Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Mon 3rd Nov 2008 11:59pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled details 
Get widget!Predictions (22)
predicted No (H$1,000 at 91%)
rogerkni
predicted No (H$7,000 at 88%)
camicalm
predicted No (H$100 at 82%)Comments (9)
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Ryan
Hubdub U.S. Politics Content Editor
Ryan
Hubdub U.S. Politics Content Editor
AnAverageAmerican makes a compelling argument -- as, at the end of the day, the only thing that really matters is the electoral vote -- except for MD (and hopefully other states in the future).
If the democrats were to lose (or even if they win), I don't think it would be difficult to settle this market (with a definitive answer about the effect of Nader, based on electoral votes) ... my sense is that MSNBC, CNN, NYT and others would be ALL OVER that story, and have the analysis available *almost immediately*.
As an aside, there probably ought be an update made to the "Politics Question Rules" to specify which vote (electoral or popular) is the "default" to cover new questions moving into the US general election.
My cent-cent worth = )
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