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Will Ralph Nader's participation in the presidential election cause the Dem's to lose the pop. vote?

Current forecast: 18% chance
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 18% likely to happen (unchanged in last 1 day)

Will the Democratic Party lose the popular vote -and- would it have won if it had the votes that went for Nader?
 
Forecast history, %
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Yes
18%
No
82%
Activity: H$3,804
Question suspends in 9 weeks
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.
So everyone is clear. When settlement occurs if the votes which went to Nader are added onto the Democratic popular vote and give the Democrats a lead in the popular vote this will be settled as a yes. It will be settled as a no if the above does not occur or if the Democrats win.

Suspend date: Mon 3rd Nov 11:59pm PST (9 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 20%

Action history:

Created Sun 24th Feb 2:12pm PST by zaratustra
Edited Mon 25th Feb 3:40am PST by ryanj[Admin]
Clarified Mon 25th Feb 3:45am PST by ryanj[Admin]: So everyone is clear. When settlement occurs if the votes which went to Nader are added onto the Democratic popular vote and give the Democrats a lead in the popular vote this will be settled as a yes. It will be settled as a no if the above does not occur or if the Democrats win.
Edited Mon 25th Feb 3:46am PST by ryanj[Admin]
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source. ... read all

 

Predictions (11)

11 predictions

2 weeks ago
lpolyak68 predicted No (H$100 at 82%)
3 weeks ago
rbrog77 predicted No (H$1,000 at 82%)
3 weeks ago
fellcolor predicted No (H$900 at 81%)
3 weeks ago
neuralnoise predicted No (H$100 at 80%)
11 weeks ago
coolkraft predicted No (H$100 at 80%)
more

Comments (9)

You might wanna have ""Green Party" edited out. He ran once on the Green party ticket, but, AFAIK, he's not this time.
posted 26 weeks ago
he has stated he will run as a third party candidate. but he has not declared which party.
posted 26 weeks ago
Oops.
posted 26 weeks ago
  4 ryanj[Admin]
So everyone is clear. When settlement occurs if the votes which went to Nader are added onto the Democratic popular vote and give the Democrats a lead in the popular vote this will be settled as a yes. It will be settled as a no if the above does not occur or if the Democrats win.

Ryan
Hubdub U.S. Politics Content Editor
posted 26 weeks ago
Popular vote? Sorry Ryan, I have to take exception to that. POTUS is elected by the electoral college, not popular vote. If the Hubdub admins are willing to do a district-by-district analysis of how the electoral college vote works out, adding Nader votes to the Democratic candidate, that is okay (don't forget MD has agreed to have all their representatives at the EC vote with the national popular vote). Otherwise, I think this question must be voided.
posted 26 weeks ago
  6 ryanj[Admin]
I'm not going by the electoral college here, I'm going by popular vote. The market poses a very interesting question, which is very hard to settle, the only way to settle it would be the way stated above. If enough people though don't like the way the market is run then I will void. As of right now I'm tempted to keep it. Anyone else have a viewpoint?

Ryan
Hubdub U.S. Politics Content Editor
posted 26 weeks ago
I agree -- it's a very interesting question.

AnAverageAmerican makes a compelling argument -- as, at the end of the day, the only thing that really matters is the electoral vote -- except for MD (and hopefully other states in the future).

If the democrats were to lose (or even if they win), I don't think it would be difficult to settle this market (with a definitive answer about the effect of Nader, based on electoral votes) ... my sense is that MSNBC, CNN, NYT and others would be ALL OVER that story, and have the analysis available *almost immediately*.

As an aside, there probably ought be an update made to the "Politics Question Rules" to specify which vote (electoral or popular) is the "default" to cover new questions moving into the US general election.

My cent-cent worth = )
posted 26 weeks ago
  8 dieseldog
i think a question was settled that nader don't win any party nomination. if thats the case this should be settled as no, or voided. correct?
posted 9 weeks ago
Mr. Nader is running as an Independent.
posted 9 weeks ago

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