Created Mon 28th Jan 2:10pm PST by

Will Ron Paul beat Rudy Giuliani in the Florida Republican primary?

Settled as No

Giuliani has bet his presidential campaign on a win in Florida, but currently he is polling third or even fourth in most polls. Can libertarian Ron Paul pull off another win over Giuliani in Florida's Republican primary, as he already has in multiple other states?

Forecast history, %

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Settled

Yes

13%

87%

Activity: H$28,436

Settled as No on Tue 29th Jan 6:14pm PST

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

SETTLEMENT NOTES:
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#FL

Suspend date: Tue 29th Jan 3pm PST

Settlement date: Tue 29th Jan 6:14pm PST

Prediction cut-off: Predictions on this question after Tue 29th Jan 3pm PST have been voided because they were made after the question could be settled

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 35%

Action history:

Created Mon 28th Jan 2:10pm PST by

dzevans

Settled Tue 29th Jan 6:14pm PST

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Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

SETTLEMENT NOTES:... read all

Predictions (272)

272 predictions

31 weeks ago

stealthman predicted Yes (H$100 at 12%)

31 weeks ago

zdawson predicted No (H$50 at 88%)

31 weeks ago

woody predicted No (H$100 at 88%)

31 weeks ago

talkingbull predicted Yes (H$50 at 12%)

31 weeks ago

wijiki predicted Yes (H$20 at 12%)

Comments (3)

raneym

Giuliani's poor showing in every other state is going to hurt him in florida.

posted 31 weeks ago

trevorbradley

Very true, but there's no chance Ron's going to beat him here...

http://www.reuters.com/news/globalcoverage/2008candidates

Looks like 13% to 2% with about a 3.4% margin of error...

posted 31 weeks ago