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Will Simon Mann die in Equatorial Guinea?

Current forecast: 50% chance 5%
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 50% likely to happen (up 5% in last 1 day)

Simon Mann, who attempted a private coup of Equatorial Guinea, was recently deported to that country from Zimbabwe. His lawyers have alleged that he could face torture in Equatorial Guinea, and a co-conspirator of Mann died in prison there. Officials in E Guinea say he will receive a fair trial.


Settlement details: Settlement if Mann dies while in Equatorial Guinea, or if he leaves Equatorial Guinea and arrives in a country which has pledged not to deport him there. As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
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Yes
50%
No
50%
Activity: H$2,350
Open question (no suspend date)

Suspend date: None

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

Created Fri 1st Feb 7:40am PST by dohler
Edited Tue 25th Mar 3:37am PDT by lesley[Admin]

Suspend date: None
more info...

 

Predictions (4)

4 predictions

1 week ago
kirin predicted No (H$1,000 at 52%)
21 weeks ago
demijohn predicted Yes (H$100 at 50%)
27 weeks ago
matthelm predicted No (H$25 at 50%)
38 weeks ago
fellcolor predicted Yes (H$100 at 50%)

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