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Will Simon Mann die in Equatorial Guinea?

Background: Simon Mann, who attempted a private coup of Equatorial Guinea, was recently deported to that country from Zimbabwe. His lawyers have alleged that he could face torture in Equatorial Guinea, and a co-conspirator of Mann died in prison there. Officials in E Guinea say he will receive a fair trial.

Settlement details:Settlement if Mann dies while in Equatorial Guinea, or if he leaves Equatorial Guinea and arrives in a country which has pledged not to deport him there. As reported by a major mainstream news source.

 
Forecast history %
Yes
50%
No
50%
Open question (no suspend date)

Suspend date: None

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

Created Fri 1st Feb 2008 7:40am PST by dohler
Edited Tue 25th Mar 2008 2:37am PST by lesley[Admin]

Suspend date: None details

 

Predictions (4)

1 year ago
kirin predicted No (H$1,000 at 52%)
1 year ago
demijohn predicted Yes (H$100 at 50%)
1 year ago
matthelm predicted No (H$25 at 50%)
1 year ago
fellcolor predicted Yes (H$100 at 50%)

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