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Will Toyota buy a majority stake in General Motors by December 31, 2008?

Current forecast: 25% chance
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 25% likely to happen (unchanged in last 1 day)

Toyota buys GM and other improbables
Posted Mar 18th 2006 8:00AM by Joel Arellano
Filed under: Etc., Plants/Manufacturing, Ford, GM, Honda, Toyota

Among auto enthusiasts, one way to pass the time is imagining what would happen if Toyota purchased General Motors. The mind of Bloomberg columnist Doron Levin must wander a lot as he imagines a scenario in which Honda also acquires Ford. In the mind's eye of his postapocalyptic world (or is it?), ‘ToyotaGM’ would instantly become the #1 automaker in the world. Hope would return to domestic-dependent areas like Flint, Michigan. Productivity would increase and both Toyota and Honda would be enshrined in American hearts for saving a pair of American institutions.

And then Levin douses himself with the cold facts of reality.

He points out what is common knowledge to many auto and financial insiders: GM and Ford are ‘poison pills’ with the following effects:

Healthcare and retirement obligations
One-sided contracts with the domestic unions
Management culture.

More details can be found at the link. Is Levin on the mark here or is the possibility of Japanese giants saving the day at the 11th hour a real possibility?

[Source: Bloomberg]
 
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Yes
25%
No
75%
Activity: H$49,893
Question suspends in 16 weeks
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Suspend date: Tue 30th Dec 12pm PST (16 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 50%

Action history:

Created Fri 22nd Feb 1:14pm PST by rootehound
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.... read all

 

Predictions (44)

44 predictions

3 weeks ago
dragon01 predicted No (H$20 at 75%)
3 weeks ago
mark0902 predicted No (H$50 at 75%)
3 weeks ago
jarrod predicted No (H$100 at 75%)
3 weeks ago
jarrod predicted No (H$100 at 74%)
5 weeks ago
hubdubbob predicted No (H$1 at 74%)
more

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