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Will Ukraine or Georgia join NATO in 2008?

Voided

Ukraine and Georgia would like to join NATO. Unfortunately Russia would not like to see its former member nations join NATO. Putin has used rhetoric and threats so far.

Some members of NATO would not like to see Ukraine or Georgia join as the diplomatic implications of this action would upset the Bear. Bush meets with Putin next week, so he may possibly be able to diffuse the situation.

So far though, Russia has been uncooperative on missile defense. Putins rhetoric as well as his recent threats and the recent incursions of Russian aircraft into NATO members airspace only spells worsening relations.

Full Background Article Here: http://www.redstate.com/blogs/skanderbeg/2008/mar/27/next_week_ukraine_nato_map_acm_and_the_return_of_the_axis_of_weasels#comment
 
% chance over time
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Voided

Yes
45%
No
55%
Thu 3rd Apr 9:17am PDT
Reason: Market was unclear, and the odds based on data at the time should have been more accurate
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Will be settled as Yes if either or both join.

Suspend date: Wed 31st Dec 11:59pm PST (19 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 45%

Action history:

Created Fri 28th Mar 9:56am PDT by ryanj[Admin]
Edited Mon 31st Mar 2:54pm PDT by lesley[Admin]
Voided Thu 3rd Apr 9:17am PDT by ryanj[Admin]: Market was unclear, and the odds based on data at the time should have been more accurate
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source. ... read all

 

Predictions

19 weeks ago
mtt9701 predicted No (H$1,000 at 58%)
19 weeks ago
7dot predicted No (H$100 at 55%)
20 weeks ago
fryender predicted No (H$100 at 54%)
20 weeks ago
lthermidor predicted No (H$150 at 54%)
20 weeks ago
phred predicted Yes (H$400 at 46%)
more

Comments

  1 matthelm
Market should be voided as it is simply impossible for either country to join this year - the best they could do is to be given what's called a Membership Action Plan, which is basically a 2-year program to bring candidate militaries in synch with NATO standards. And even MAPs are not a guarantee of membership...
posted 20 weeks ago

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