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Will Venezuela be added to the United States' 'Terror List'?

Current forecast: 26% chance
Combining all predictions, the current forecast is that this is 26% likely to happen (unchanged in last 1 day)

CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) -- President Hugo Chavez dared the U.S. on Friday to put Venezuela on a list of countries accused of supporting terrorism, calling it one more attempt by Washington to undermine him for political reasons.

President Hugo Chavez gestures to supporters during a party meeting in Caracas on Friday.

Chavez said the "threat to include us on the terrorist list" is Washington's response to his government's successes in the region.

U.S. lawmakers including Reps. Connie Mack and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, both Florida Republicans, have called for the State Department to add Venezuela to its list of terror sponsors, which includes North Korea, Iran, Syria, Sudan and Cuba. They have expressed concerns about what they call Chavez's close ties to Colombia's leftist rebels.

For full article: http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/asiapcf/03/14/venezuela.us.ap/index.html?iref=topnews
 
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Yes
26%
No
74%
Activity: H$3,798
Question suspends in 3 weeks
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

Suspend date: Fri 26th Sep 8:59am PDT (3 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes: 30%

Action history:

Created Sat 15th Mar 7:03am PDT by nubbins
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.... read all

 

Predictions (27)

27 predictions

5 hours ago
hope_cruor predicted No (H$100 at 74%)
2 weeks ago
youbet predicted No (H$100 at 74%)
3 weeks ago
hippyboomer predicted No (H$20 at 73%)
5 weeks ago
piterwilson predicted No (H$20 at 73%)
6 weeks ago
thelee predicted No (H$50 at 73%)
more

Comments (11)

  1 markov
Great question! Since it has been shown Hugo Chavez is funneling large sums of money to the murderous FARC rebels to undermine neighboring governments I would say they certainly meet the criteria to be put on the list. However, due to the practicalities of our need for oil, I seriously doubt the USA will put one of their key, major oil suppliers on the terror list. The sooner we develop the technology and demonstrate the will to reduce our oil consumption to domestically produced levels the better this world will be, especially in the USA.
posted 24 weeks ago
  2 pepe
usa are on top of the list...
posted 24 weeks ago
hey look, osama is a hubdub user!
posted 24 weeks ago
Wow, pepe, do you really think the U.S. would put the U.S. on the top of the U.S. terror list?
I'm sending this guy a friend invite.
posted 24 weeks ago
  5 pepe
... no, i dont think so. Italked about the "real list" (kills)...

the question is impossible to settle without any suspend date...
posted 24 weeks ago
so then the US must have also have been practicing terrorism when we were peeling hitler off of europe and north africa? after all, we were wasting more krauts than the fatalities they were inflicting upon us.

obviously, kill count does not define one as a terrorist. so why dont u just tell us what u really think about america?
posted 24 weeks ago
bwah!
posted 24 weeks ago
  9 intlibber
There are massive weapons sales of jets, tanks, missiles, etc going on between Russia and Venezuela. The two countries are negotiating right now building an air base for nuclear armed Russian Backfire bombers to be based at (A reprise of the Cuban Missile Crisis, anyone?). Expect things to heat up, and I expect the Bush administration to take full advantage of the situation, giving McCain a chance to get all hawkish with justification, driving his poll numbers up to win the election.
posted 5 weeks ago
  10 intlibber
http://eldib.wordpress.com/2008/07/25/breaking-russian-s-300-missiles-would-ensure-venezuelas-oil-security/

"BREAKING: Russian S-300 missiles ‘would ensure Venezuela’s oil security’"

MOSCOW, July 24 (RIA Novosti) - Russian S-300 air-defense missile systems would enable Venezuela to fully ensure the security of its hydrocarbon resources, a Russian military expert said Thursday.

“Needless to say, should S-300s be delivered to Venezuela, they would effectively strengthen its defense capability, and it would not be easy for its possible adversaries to punish the country by striking at its oil fields,” former Air Force commander Gen. Anatoly Kornukov said.

He added that as an oil-rich country Venezuela had to protect its natural resources.

“It is difficult to say how many air-defense systems Venezuela would need, since it has to protect not separate sites, but its entire territory,” he said, adding that 10 S-300 battalions, each comprising six launchers, “should be enough.”

The Venezuelan government on Wednesday accused international and domestic media of deliberately misinterpreting information on President Hugo Chavez’s recent visit to Russia.

Some media reports said Chavez offered to host Russian military bases in Venezuela and to buy $30 billion worth of Russian weaponry in the next four years.

Venezuela’s 1999 Constitution prohibits the hosting of foreign military bases in the country.

In 2005-2006, Venezuela bought more than 50 combat helicopters, 24 Su-30MK2 fighters, 12 Tor-M1 air defense missile systems and 100,000 AK-103 assault rifles from Russia. Current contracts are worth about $4 billion, according to various sources.

Future deliveries may include Amur-class diesel submarines, Il-76MD military transport planes, Il-78 aerial tankers and air-defense missile systems.
posted 5 weeks ago
  11 intlibber
http://formerspook.blogspot.com/2008/07/crossing-red-line.html

"The scenario is further complicated by the availability of other bases in the region. Earlier this week, Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chavez called on Russia to form an alliance with his nation and Cuba, to resist “American aggression” in the Caribbean. Russian bombers could (potentially) shuttle between Cuba and Venezuela, avoiding prolonged stays in one location that would invite a U.S. response.

Potential bomber deployments to Venezuela are equally troubling, since it would place them within easy striking distance of the Panama Canal—and targets in the CONUS—but far enough away to avoid the red line issue.

And, unlike Cuba, Venezuela has cash and the gas to support a long-term Russian military presence. Readers will note that Cuba is being mentioned as only a refueling base for the Blackjacks; that suggests that Moscow may be angling for another location in the region to serve as a forward operating base, with Venezuela at the top of that list.

It won’t be another Cuban Missile Crisis—unless we discover that the Blackjacks deployed with nuclear weapons. But the prospective bomber deployment could pose a serious security challenge for the next administration. Someone ought to ask Senator McCain and Senator Obama about their thoughts on TU-160s in Cuba or Venezuela, and when such deployments would cross that proverbial “red line.”"
posted 5 weeks ago

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