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Will Yale agree to return to Peru all 40,000 of its artifacts taken from Machu Picchu by October 1, 2008?

Hubdub users say: Nope - NO ADDITIONAL pieces will be returned (69% chance )
Combining all predictions, the current most likely outcome is Nope - NO ADDITIONAL pieces will be returned with a probability of 69% (unchanged in last 1 day)

Yale and Peru's government made an agreement in September 2007 to return some 4,000 pieces, but it was not known at the time that the collection was actually much more extensive.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24108346/
 
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Yes - ALL will be returned
10%
Kind of - SOME will be returned
21%
Nope - NO ADDITIONAL pieces will be returned
69%
Activity: H$14,342
Question suspends in 9 weeks
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source.

The question is asking when the agreement will be made, not when the actual return of the items will take place.

The 4,000 pieces that were agreed to be returned in September 2007 do not count towards the "SOME will be returned" option- additional pieces would have to be returned for this to be the settlement.

If some type of sharing agreement is reached then the settlement will be "NO ADDITIONAL pieces will be returned"- Yale must relinquish possession.

Suspend date: Wed 1st Oct 12:59am PDT (9 weeks to go)

Initial likelihoods: Yes - ALL will be returned: 30%, Kind of - SOME will be returned: 40%, Nope - NO ADDITIONAL pieces will be returned: 30%

Action history:

Created Mon 14th Apr 7:33pm PDT by robmar
Suspended Tue 17th Jun 2:20pm PDT by mork[Power User]: Suspended pending settlement
Settlement requested Tue 17th Jun 2:20pm PDT by mork[Power User]: http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2008/06/080617-peruartifacts-video-ap.html (market suspended)
Unsuspended Mon 23rd Jun 2pm PDT by lesley[Admin]: 20 June, 2008
"National Geographic vice-president, Terry García who said that this university should return all Machu Picchu artifacts to Peru."
http://www.livinginperu.com/news-6734-artculturehistory-natgeo-vice-president-said-yale-should-return-perus-machu-picchu-artifacts
All questions are settled by Hubdub according to settlement info provided by the question creator.

Settlement details: As reported by a major mainstream news source. ... read all

 
6 weeks ago
robmar predicted Nope - NO ADDITIONAL pieces will be returned (H$400)
9 weeks ago
roosh predicted Kind of - SOME will be returned (H$20)
10 weeks ago
kolia39 predicted Nope - NO ADDITIONAL pieces will be returned (H$100)
10 weeks ago
robmar predicted Nope - NO ADDITIONAL pieces will be returned (H$200)
13 weeks ago
haagendazs predicted Kind of - SOME will be returned (H$100)
13 weeks ago
brunobca predicted Nope - NO ADDITIONAL pieces will be returned (H$50)
13 weeks ago
morosofos predicted Kind of - SOME will be returned (H$50)
13 weeks ago
robmar predicted Yes - ALL will be returned (H$50)
13 weeks ago
kruijs[Power User] predicted Nope - NO ADDITIONAL pieces will be returned (H$500)
13 weeks ago
robmar predicted Nope - NO ADDITIONAL pieces will be returned (H$200)
"Yale spokesman Tom Conroy said the difference stems from how the pieces are counted. For example, he said, fragments from one object could be counted as one piece or more based on the number of fragments.

"The difference is how one chooses to count, not what Yale has in its collection from Machu Picchu," Conroy said. "We're talking about the same inventory we shared with them last month."

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,351273,00.html
posted 14 weeks ago
“Counting is complicated,” he said. “Do you count lots or do you count every piece? There may be tens of thousands of objects if you count each finger bone in a skeleton.”

http://www.efluxmedia.com/news_It_All_Comes_Down_To_Counting_Yale_Holding_40000_Inca_Artifacts_16346.html
posted 14 weeks ago
  3 robmar
Interesting development- thanks for the update *fingers*. We'll have to see how Peru feels about this explanation...
posted 14 weeks ago
  4 kruijs[Power User]
than the background comment here is misleading, grrrr, because "collection was actually much more extensive" is not correct (rob, I do not allege that it was done by purpose though). that made my stake's value go down by almost 2/3 now.
posted 14 weeks ago
  5 robmar
@kruijs - I wrote the question using the MSNBC article as a reference so I guess we'll just have to see how this pans out
posted 14 weeks ago
  6 lesley[Admin]
If it turns out that this is just a counting problem, then the question will be voided. Can we wait and see what news comes out to confirm or deny these claims?

Lesley
posted 14 weeks ago
  7 robmar
Sounds great Lesley
posted 14 weeks ago
  8 owl1
I think it will depend on Yale giving them the whole skeleton or just giving them the finger.
posted 7 weeks ago
This market was un-suspended ten minutes ago, and is now open.

posted 4 weeks ago
"National Geographic vice-president, Terry García said that this university should return all Machu Picchu artifacts to Peru."

<http://www.livinginperu.com/news-6734-artculturehistory-natgeo-vice-president-said-yale-should-return-perus-machu-picchu-artifacts>
posted 4 weeks ago

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